> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 破局开新，蓄势致远 2026年政府工作报告解读 在全球经济格局持续调整的背景下，中国经济正进入高质量发展的关键阶段。2026年3月5日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议在北京召开，国务院总理李强代表国务院向大会作政府工作报告（以下简称“报告”）。面对“多年少有的外部冲击挑战和国内两难多难问题交织叠加的复杂严峻形势”，报告以破局的勇气直面深层次结构性矛盾，以开新的魄力构建全新增长范式，以蓄势的耐心厚植长期发展根基，以致远的格局锚定中国式现代化的宏伟目标。从承前到启后，从收官到开局，此次工作报告既延续了“稳中求进”的政策基调，也更加注重结构优化与制度完善的“提质增效”。面对风高浪急的外部环境，中国既有乱云飞渡仍从容的战略定力，又有不畏浮云遮望眼的改革锐气，更有长风破浪会有时的发展信心。“我们从最坏处打算，向最好处努力”，破局方能开新，蓄势终将致远。 区间思维：务实求变的增长新逻辑。与2023年至2025年的政府工作报告相比，2026年报告在增长目标表述上体现出了更加灵活和前瞻的宏观调控思路。 此次报告将GDP增长目标设定为“4.5%—5%”的区间形式，这一表述方式在稳定增长预期的同时，也为宏观政策调节预留了更充足的空间。区间目标既体现了对中国经济增长潜力的信心，也有助于在复杂外部环境下提升政策的弹性与适应性，为调结构、防风险和促改革创造更为从容的政策条件。同时，报告明确提出“在实际工作中努力争取更好结果”，延续了稳中求进的政策基调，也进一步强化了政策“进”的取向。这种目标设定方式既稳定了市场预期，也有助于在保持经济运行总体平稳的同时推动发展质量持续提升。 不仅如此，2026年报告进一步强化了价格目标的重要性，将推动价格水平回升纳入宏观调控的重要考量，并与货币政策中“把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为重要考量”的政策安排形成呼应。这一政策导向顺应当前经济运行的阶段性特征，有助于推动需求恢复、稳定市场预期，并为经济运行回归合理价格区间创造条件。 从经济增速区间化调控，再到更加重视价格与增长的协调，中国宏观调控框架正在持续完善。增长速度、价格水平与结构优化之间的协同更加突出，也体现出在高质量发展阶段，宏观治理更加注重稳定性、灵活性与长期质量。 内需主场：消费与投资的双轮共振。在扩大内需的政策框架下，2026年政府工作报告进一步强化了消费与投资协同发力的政策组合。在消费端，2500亿元以旧换新资金延续既有政策支持，1000亿元财政金融协同促内需专项资金开辟新的资金渠道，个人消费贷款贴息政策扩面提限则直接增强居民端的信用支持能力。多项政策相互衔接，形成从财政到金融、从供给到需求的多层次内需促进机制，有助于持续激发居民消费潜力。 在投资端，8000亿元新型政策性金融工具，通过政府资金撬动社会资本参与重大项目建设。这类准财政工具在增强项目融资能力的同时，也有助于提高资金配置效率，为基础设施和重点领域投资提供稳定的长期资金来源。 与此同时，报告明确提出“提高民生类政府投资比重”，投资结构逐步向教育、医疗、养老等公共服务领域拓展，体现出更加注重“投资于人”的发展取向。 2026年3月6日 程实，博士 (852) 2206 8049 shi.cheng@icbc.com.cn 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com # 相关研究： 2/25/2026：《生产与生活之间：服务业扩能提质的逻辑》 2/12/2026：《美国经济四重风险》 2/9/2026：《结构性货币政策的传导与边界》 2/4/2026：《区间有序、路径难测——混沌演化视角下的人民币汇率再探索》 2/2/2026：《全球生产网络与绕不开的中国——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之三》 1/30/2026：《分位数视角下的美元指数走势》 1/29/2026：《独立性承压下的货币政策路径——2026年1月美联储议息会议点评》 1/26/2026：《以历史主动精神应对混沌演化——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之二》 1/22/2026：《人工智能重塑劳动力市场的理论认知》 1/14/2026：《从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧”》 1/7/2026：《价值链攀升的中国坐标——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之二》 1/6/2026：《人工智能时代的中国比较优势》 1/5/2026：《如何充分挖掘经济潜能？——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一》 12/30/2025：《纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一》 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 随着消费政策持续发力、投资结构不断优化，内需体系正在形成更加稳固的增长支撑。消费潜力的释放与投资质量的提升相互促进，内需作为经济增长重要动力的作用将进一步增强，中国经济的内生增长基础也将持续夯实。 智能跃迁：从“人工智能+”到智能经济新形态。2025年政府工作报告提出“持续推进‘人工智能+’行动”，2026年的政府工作报告就以“打造智能经济新形态”为标题单列成段。人工智能在国家发展战略中的定位进一步提升，从技术行动逐步延展为推动经济形态演进的重要力量。 报告提出“实施超大规模智算集群、算电协同等新型基础设施”，同时强调“新一代智能终端和智能体”，“培育智能原生新业态新模式”。这些政策表述展示出人工智能正在从单向技术应用迈向纵横交错的产业生态重塑，数字基础设施、算力体系与产业场景之间的协同关系不断强化，为智能经济的发展奠定重要基础。 与此同时，集成电路、航空航天、生物医药、低空经济等新兴支柱产业成为培育新动能的重要方向。未来能源、量子科技、具身智能、脑机接口、6G等未来产业获得“投入增长和风险分担机制”的政策支持，体现出创新体系在资金投入与制度保障方面的持续完善。 从技术应用的加速推广到智能经济形态的系统布局，中国创新政策的框架正在不断深化。随着制度环境、产业生态与技术能力的协同推进，新一轮科技创新将为经济结构升级和高质量发展提供更加坚实的动力。 制度重构：从整治“内卷”到建设“统一”。2026年政府工作报告中的改革重点更加突出制度建设导向。围绕全国统一大市场建设，报告提出“制定全国统一大市场建设条例”，“出台地方政府招商引资鼓励和禁止事项清单”，并“强化公平竞争审查刚性约束”，推动市场规则更加统一、竞争环境更加规范。 在财税领域，零基预算改革从试点走向扩面，消费税征收环节后移稳步推进，地方税体系建设迈出实质步伐。这些看似技术性的改革，实则关乎中央与地方的财权事权再平衡，是推动高质量发展的深层制度基础设施。同时，对民营经济，报告提出“从法律和制度上保障平等使用生产要素、公平参与市场竞争”的表述，以法治的刚性为民营经济注入最持久的信心。 安全筑底：在化险中求稳，在求稳中图进。发展与安全的协调推进，是贯穿2026年政府工作报告的重要政策主线。 在房地产领域，政策重心更加注重结构优化与长效机制建设，通过因城施策调控增量、去化库存、优化供给结构，同时推进“好房子”建设工程和物业服务质量提升行动，推动房地产市场向更加健康可持续的发展模式转型。 在地方债务领域，报告强调严防虚假化债，并提出推动融资平台分类有序改革转型。这一政策安排既体现出防范风险的坚定态度，也兼顾地方经济发展与项目建设的现实需求，为存量风险化解提供更加稳妥的路径。 在金融安全方面，报告提出充实地方中小金融机构风险处置资源和手段，推动风险处置能力持续提升。这一表述体现出风险治理从单纯应对向能力建设的进一步深化，有助于提升金融体系的韧性和稳定性。 从房地产、地方债务到金融机构风险处置，相关政策安排共同体现出稳中求进的治理思路。在守住不发生系统性风险底线的前提下，通过结构调整与制度完善逐步化解风险，为经济结构优化和发展动能转换创造更加稳定的宏观环境。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其裁明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # 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