战略与国际研究中心-Africa-Notes_-Ethiopia_-Coping-with-Islamic-Fundamentalism-before-and-after-September-11_7页_125kb

Ethiopia: Coping with Islamic Fundamentalism before and after September 11

Core Content

Ethiopia has historically faced threats from Islamic fundamentalist groups, particularly from Sudan and Somalia. These threats have evolved over time, shaped by regional dynamics, political shifts, and international events. The analysis argues that while September 11 did not fundamentally alter Ethiopia's security situation, it did increase international interest in potential links between Al Qaeda and groups in the Horn of Africa, especially Al Itihaad al Islami in Somalia. This shift has allowed Ethiopia to leverage its position and seek greater support from the United States and other global actors.

Main Points

• Historical Context: Ethiopia's relationship with Islam has been marked by both coexistence and conflict. Early in the 7th century, Arab Muslims found refuge in Ethiopia, which was spared from jihad. However, Islamic incursions in the 15th and 16th centuries, notably by Ahmad ibn Ibrahim al-Ghazi ("Gragn the left-handed"), threatened Ethiopian sovereignty and culture.

• Modern Islamic Presence: Islam in Ethiopia is primarily practiced by indigenous ethnic groups, especially in the Somali and Afar regions. Despite its presence, Islam has historically been secondary to Christianity, and the Ethiopian Islamic community is generally non-fundamentalist and politically decentralized.

• Sudan as a Threat: Ethiopia and Sudan share a long and complex border, with historical tensions and mutual accusations of supporting opposition groups. The 1995 assassination attempt on Egyptian President Mubarak, linked to Sudan, led to a deterioration in relations. However, by 2002, Ethiopia and Sudan had normalized relations, and mutual suspicions had eased.

• Somalia as a Threat: The Somali frontier, particularly the Ogaden region, has been a focal point for Islamic fundamentalist groups. Al Itihaad al Islami, a Somali organization influenced by Wahhabism, has been a significant threat to Ethiopia, engaging in cross-border attacks and propaganda campaigns. It has also attempted to influence the Transitional National Government (TNG) in Somalia.

• Al Itihaad and Al Qaeda: While there are claims of a connection between Al Itihaad and Al Qaeda, especially after September 11, the evidence is not conclusive. Ethiopia has used these claims to justify increased international engagement and to pressure Somali groups. The U.S. and other nations have also shown interest in the potential links, which Ethiopia has exploited to strengthen its position.

Key Information

• Ethiopia's Role in the Region: As a central power in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia's stability is crucial for regional security. It has historically acted as a mediator and has had both alliances and conflicts with neighboring Islamic states.

• Religious Demographics: Ethiopia's population is diverse, with approximately 45% Ethiopian Orthodox Christians, 40-45% Sunni Muslims, and smaller percentages of Protestants and animists. The 1994 census reported 29% Muslims, but this figure is disputed, with some sources suggesting a higher Muslim population.

• Political Dynamics: The EPRDF government, which came to power in 1991, has promoted religious tolerance. However, it has also taken a firm stance against Islamic fundamentalist groups like Al Itihaad, especially those that threaten national security.

• Post-September 11 Developments: The U.S. and international community have shown increased concern about Islamic extremism in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia has used this to enhance its diplomatic and military posture, closing Somali remittance banks and inviting foreign military support.

Conclusion

Despite the heightened international focus on Islamic fundamentalism following September 11, Ethiopia's security challenges from Islamic groups remain largely unchanged. The country has used the global attention to its advantage, particularly in its dealings with Somalia. While Al Itihaad has been a persistent threat, it is primarily a Somali organization with a Somali agenda. Ethiopia's strategic approach has been to maintain stability and prevent the spread of extremism, leveraging both domestic policies and international alliances to achieve this goal.