2000年-世界发展银行全球_Vietnam_2010___Entering_the_21st_Century_348页_23mb

Vietnam 2010: Entering the 21st Century Summary

Core Content

The Vietnam Development Report 2001, titled "Vietnam 2010: Entering the 21st Century", is a joint effort by the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). It outlines Vietnam's socio-economic development strategy for the decade 2001–2010, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to achieve sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and social transformation. The report is divided into two parts: Part I – Pillars of Development and Part II – Partnerships for Development.

Main Goals and Targets

Vietnam's strategy aims to:

• Achieve 7.8% annual GDP growth over 2001–2010, slightly above the 7.6% growth rate recorded in the 1990s.
• Double the GDP by 2010.
• Increase investment to 30% of GDP.
• Boost exports by over 14% annually.
• Shift the economic structure from agriculture (25% of GDP) to industry (40–41%) and services (42–43%).
• Reduce poverty from 37% in 1998 to near eradication by 2010.
• Eradicate hunger and hard-core poverty.
• Universalize lower secondary education.
• Reduce child malnutrition from 33% to 15–20%.
• Increase life expectancy from 68 to 70–71 years.
• Improve access to clean water in urban areas from 65% to 90%.
• Raise forest coverage from 28% to 43%.

Key Challenges and Priorities

The report identifies several challenges and priority areas for development:

1. Creating a Supportive Climate for Enterprise

   • Need to increase private sector investment from 7% to 12–15% of GDP.
   • Reform banking and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to improve productivity and competitiveness.
   • Ensure transparent and predictable regulatory frameworks.
   • Shift from a grudging to supportive attitude towards private enterprise.

2. Transforming the Rural Economy

   • Promote agricultural intensification and diversification.
   • Develop off-farm employment and remote/upland area development.
   • Reduce the share of rural employment from 2/3 to 1/2.
   • Address urban-rural gaps and inequalities.

3. Enhancing Human Capacity

   • Focus on education, health, population, and targeted poverty programs.
   • Establish effective safety nets to reduce vulnerability to shocks.

4. Providing Efficient Infrastructure Services

   • Develop transport, energy, and water and sanitation systems.
   • Ensure accessibility and affordability of these services.

5. Improving Environmental Quality

   • Address industrial pollution and natural resource management.
   • Promote biodiversity preservation and sustainable practices.

6. Building Modern Governance

   • Reform public administration, transparency, accountability, legal systems, and anti-corruption.
   • Enhance participation and institutional effectiveness.

Key Decisions and Strategic Considerations

The report highlights six key decisions that will shape Vietnam's development path:

1. How to benefit from globalization while managing the costs?

   • Vietnam must integrate into the global economy through trade, investment, and ICT.
   • Address distortions in trade policies and high protection rates in industries.

2. An equal opportunity for the private sector or state dominance of key sectors?

   • The private sector must be empowered and supported.
   • SOE reform is crucial for market competitiveness and efficiency.

3. What path to a knowledge-based economy?

   • Invest in ICT infrastructure and education.
   • Vietnam lags behind in Internet access, which is critical for development.

4. "Growth poles" or balanced growth?

   • A balanced approach is needed to avoid inequalities and social stress.
   • Workers should move from agriculture to manufacturing for better livelihoods.

5. What role for the State in a "market-oriented socialist economy"?

   • The State must play a supportive and regulatory role.
   • Public administration reform and transparency are essential for effective governance.

6. How to allocate scarce public expenditures?

   • Prioritize equity and vulnerability reduction.
   • Ensure poverty programs and social safety nets are adequately funded.

Economic Framework and Structural Shifts

• Vietnam's economic growth is expected to be internally coherent and consistent with East Asian development models.
• A structural shift from agriculture to industry and services is essential for poverty reduction.
• Equitable growth is critical to ensure that poverty reduction is effective and sustainable.
• Figure 2 illustrates that equitable growth could reduce poverty by 20 million, while uneven growth would only reduce it by 12 million.

International Partnerships

• Part II of the report emphasizes the importance of stronger partnerships between the Government, donors, and NGOs.
• These partnerships are key to enhancing the effectiveness of Vietnam's resources, including Official Development Assistance (ODA).
• The report calls for coordinated efforts to identify and address constraints and roadblocks to development.

Conclusion

The Vietnam Development Report 2001 outlines a comprehensive and ambitious strategy for the country's development in the early 21st century. It stresses the need for policy and institutional reforms, equitable growth, and international collaboration to achieve the vision of a just, stable, and competitive society. The report serves as a guideline for Government and development partners to work together in achieving the goals set out in the strategy.