那提西银行-美国-宏观经济-美国对财政赤字急剧增加有何调整？-20180409-5页_664kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the potential financial adjustments that may occur due to a sharp increase in the US fiscal deficit, resulting from the Trump administration's expansionary fiscal policies, including corporate tax cuts and increased public spending on military and infrastructure. It outlines two primary mechanisms through which the US can finance this deficit: interest rate adjustments and exchange rate depreciation.

Main Views

The document presents the following main views on how the US might adjust to a large fiscal deficit:

1. Interest Rate Adjustment

• A significant increase in long-term interest rates could attract both domestic and foreign capital to finance the fiscal deficit.
• The Federal Reserve may respond by raising interest rates, which would make US bonds more attractive to investors.
• This adjustment would help offset the fiscal deficit without necessitating a depreciation of the dollar.

2. Exchange Rate Adjustment

• A depreciation of the US dollar could reduce the foreign-currency value of the US external debt, making dollar-denominated assets more appealing to non-residents.
• Non-resident investors may increase their purchases of US Treasuries to restore the value of their foreign-currency holdings.
• This would lead to an inflow of capital, which in turn helps finance the fiscal deficit.

Key Information

• The US fiscal deficit is expected to rise significantly due to the current expansionary fiscal policy.
• Historical data shows that during periods of high fiscal deficits (1981-1996, 2003-2005, 2009-2013), both interest rates and the dollar's exchange rate adjusted to accommodate the increased deficit.
• The yield curve steepened during these periods, indicating a rise in long-term interest rates.
• The dollar depreciated, which helped attract non-resident capital to the US through increased demand for dollar-denominated assets like US Treasuries.
• The relationship between the fiscal deficit and interest rates is supported by an econometric model:
  10-year interest rate = 1.2 + 0.88 × 2-year rate - 0.16 × fiscal deficit % GDP
  with a high $R^2$ value of 0.98, suggesting strong explanatory power.

Historical Context

The document references three major periods of high US fiscal deficits:

• 1981–1996: The fiscal deficit was significant, and the dollar depreciated starting in 1985.
• 2003–2005: The dollar depreciated in 2003, which encouraged non-resident purchases of US Treasuries.
• 2009–2013: The dollar depreciated in 2010, leading to increased capital inflows.

In all these periods, the adjustment involved a combination of rising interest rates and a weaker dollar.

Conclusion

The new US fiscal policy under the Trump administration is expected to trigger one or both of the following adjustments:

• A significant increase in interest rates, which would attract capital to the US.
• A depreciation of the dollar, which would also attract non-resident capital by increasing the foreign-currency value of US assets.

In the past, the adjustment in periods of high fiscal deficits was borne by both an increase in interest rates and a depreciation of the dollar.

Disclaimer

• This document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is strictly confidential and not to be disclosed to third parties without prior consent.
• The information provided is for general informational purposes only and not a personalized investment recommendation.
• The views expressed are personal opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of Natixis.
• The document does not constitute financial analysis and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements for independent investment research.
• The document is based on public information and not an offer or solicitation for any transaction.
• The regulatory status of Natixis is detailed, including authorization by various financial authorities in Europe, the UK, Spain, Italy, and the UAE.

Regulatory Information

• Supervised by: European Central Bank (ECB)
• Authorized in France by: Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Régulation (ACPR)
• Regulated by: Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), and Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) in the UK
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• In Spain and Italy: Authorized and regulated by local financial authorities
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This document is not intended for retail investors and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions without further consultation.