2016年-数据局_硅谷银行：前沿科技报告_16页_1mb

Frontier Tech Summary

Core Definition

Frontier Tech refers to new or reimagined industries driven by technological advancements that have the potential to cause a paradigm shift across business, economics, the environment, and society. It encompasses fields such as Design Computing, Mixed-Reality Developments, Robotics, Virtual-Reality, Artificial Intelligence, and Space Technology.

Key Industries

SVB identifies five key industries under Frontier Tech:

• Drones
• Virtual Reality (VR)
• Augmented Reality (AR)
• Robotics
• Artificial Intelligence (A.I.)
• Space Technology

These industries are interconnected and offer opportunities to enhance each other's capabilities.

Catalysts for Advancement

The growth of Frontier Tech is supported by three main catalysts:

1. Hardware Innovation: Continuous improvements in compute power, speed, and cost.
2. Data Innovation: Enhanced sensorization, data access, and precision.
3. Software Innovation: Developments in analytics, deep learning, and smart autonomy.

These innovations have created a solid infrastructure to support the maturation of Frontier Tech.

Hype vs. Reality

Frontier Tech industries are rapidly moving through the hype curve as the technology matures and investment and adoption increase. This trend is supported by Gartner's 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.

Market Size and Growth

The current and expected market sizes of Frontier Tech industries, along with their 5-year CAGR, are as follows:

These figures highlight the varying growth potential across different sectors.

Funding Landscape

Investments in Frontier Tech have been increasing, with a notable surge in the past 18 months. Some investments exceed 45% of the total invested capital in a single round, indicating significant interest and capital flow into the sector.

Deals by Stage

Funding trends show that Frontier Tech is still in its early stages. Most deals are in the seed phase, which includes some crowdfunding. The data spans from Q4 2010 to Q3 2015, reflecting the initial investment activity.

Most Active Investors

Large corporates are increasingly partnering with traditional venture investors to pursue the next "centicorn"—a company that emerges every decade and has a transformative impact. This trend is driven by the pursuit of long-term value and innovation.

Beyond Search

Larry Page, former CEO of Google, emphasizes that the goal of search is to develop artificial intelligence that truly understands user intent and the world. This reflects the integration of A.I. into core technologies like search.

Google's Involvement

Google is actively involved in all Frontier Tech industries through acquisitions, investments, and internal development, showcasing its strategic interest in the future of technology.

Maturity Index

The SVB Frontier Tech Maturity Index assesses the current maturity and future growth potential of each industry:

The index considers factors such as infrastructure scalability, regulatory oversight, barriers to entry, and technology maturation.

Growth Potential

The growth potential is calculated by comparing the realized and unrealized markets. A larger increase indicates greater opportunity:

Potential Obstacles

Several challenges may impede the growth of Frontier Tech:

• Technological Capabilities: Will the drivers of recent developments continue? Will technologies advance to solve final challenges?
• Niche vs. Broad-Range Applicability: Is the technology applicable to a niche or broader market?
• Infrastructure: Is the necessary infrastructure in place?
• Regulation: Could unforeseen regulations hinder use cases?
• Funding: How many development phases are needed? Will investments continue to flow?
• Social Adoption: Will the technology be easy to integrate into daily life? Will it be uncomfortable or unnatural to use?
• Demand: Is there existing demand, or does it need to be created? Is the market potential large enough to justify investment?

Future Potential

Frontier Tech has the potential to solve complex global challenges as identified by the Millennium Project initiative. These solutions could impact various aspects of society, from economic growth to environmental sustainability.

About Silicon Valley Bank

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has been a key player in supporting innovative companies and their investors for over 30 years. SVB Analytics offers strategic advisory, research, and valuation services, helping stakeholders understand and navigate the Frontier Tech landscape.

Note: This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as tax, investment, legal, or other advice. Always consult relevant professionals before making decisions.