2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Papua_New_Guinea_Selected_Issues_32页_1mb

Summary of the Selected Issues Paper on Papua New Guinea

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of financial inclusion and access in Papua New Guinea (PNG), as well as the evolution of its foreign exchange (FX) regime and structural reforms for sustainable and inclusive development. The paper is prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other development agencies, focusing on the financial sector's role in economic development and the challenges facing PNG in this area.

Main Views and Key Information

Financial Inclusion and Access

A. Introduction

• Financial inclusion (FI) is strongly linked to economic development outcomes.
• FI is defined as the proportion of individuals and firms using financial services.
• The poor benefit significantly from basic financial services such as payments, savings, and insurance.
• Firms, especially small and new ones, benefit from access to financial services through enhanced innovation, job creation, and growth.

B. Financial Sector Development and Access in PNG

• PNG's financial sector is relatively shallow compared to other middle-income countries and developing Asian economies.
• Financial sector depth is measured by the ratio of domestic private credit to GDP, which was 35% in 2013—well below regional averages.
• There are only 4 full-service commercial banks in PNG, with 79 branches, and limited growth in credit unions and cooperatives.
• Mobile banking shows promise, with 9.4% of adults holding mobile banking accounts in 2012, which is relatively high compared to other Pacific countries.
• In 2013, PNG had 8.4 ATMs per 100,000 adults, significantly lower than other developing Asian economies (25.9).
• Only 27% of adults held deposit accounts and 4% had outstanding credit at end-2013, compared to 76% and 85% for other lower middle-income and developing Asian economies.

C. Country-Specific Barriers to Financial Inclusion

• Low per capita income and high inequality: PNG's Gini coefficient was 51 in 1996, indicating a highly unequal income distribution.
• High costs and limited access: Banks in PNG have high return on equity (ROE) and interest rate spreads, making financial services expensive.
• Geographic and demographic challenges: PNG is one of the least urbanized countries, with only 13% of the population living in urban areas, which limits access to financial services in rural regions.
• Documentation requirements: KYC rules and other regulations impose high documentation and relationship management costs, especially for small and rural depositors.
• Lack of financial awareness and education: Low levels of formal education and financial literacy contribute to limited access and use of financial services.
• Customary land ownership: About 97% of private land is owned by tribal groups, making it difficult to use as collateral for loans.
• Religious and cultural influences: These may affect financial behavior in PNG.

Reform Priorities

• Stimulate competition: Reduce regulatory barriers to encourage more financial service providers.
• Reduce costs: Address geographic, infrastructure, and service-related cost hurdles.
• Simplify regulations: Adjust KYC and other requirements to make them more accessible for rural and low-income customers.
• Promote financial education: Increase awareness and literacy among rural and undereducated populations.
• Enhance mobile banking: Leverage mobile technology to expand access and reduce infrastructure costs.

FX Market Developments

• The kina has experienced significant appreciation and depreciation due to capital inflows from the LNG project.
• The kina appreciated by about 30% from 2008 to 2011, then depreciated by 25% from 2012 to end-2015.
• The real effective exchange rate appreciated by 55% over the same period, reflecting higher inflation than trading partners.
• BPNG has introduced a trading band of 150 basis points to reduce exchange rate volatility, leading to a de facto classification of the exchange rate regime as a crawl-like arrangement.

FX Market Challenges

• FX inflows are primarily from mineral and LNG tax receipts and foreign investment.
• FX supply is structurally limited, and the market is dominated by a few large banks.
• Excess liquidity has built up due to insufficient sterilization of FX inflows and fiscal expansion.
• Trust accounts created from unused funds complicate monetary policy implementation.

Structural Reforms

• The paper outlines possible strategies for structural reforms to improve financial inclusion and economic development.
• It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive program of macroeconomic and financial sector reforms over long horizons.
• It also highlights the importance of focused policies and initiatives that can yield quicker results, such as improving mobile banking and insurance services.

References

• Andrianaivo, Mihasonirina and Kangni Kpodar, 2011, "ICT, Financial Inclusion, and Growth: Evidence from African Countries", IMF Working Paper, WP/11/73.
• Bank of Papua New Guinea, 2014, "National Financial Inclusion and Financial Literacy Strategy 2014-2015".
• García-Herrero, Alicia and David Martínez Turégano, 2015, "Financial inclusion, rather than size, is the key to tackling income inequality", Working Paper no. 15/05.
• International Monetary Fund, 2008, "Financial Sector Assessment: A Handbook".
• World Bank, 2012, "The Foundations of Financial Inclusion—Understanding Ownership and Use of Formal Accounts".
• World Bank, 2014, "Global Financial Development Report—Financial Inclusion".
• World Bank, 2015, "The Global FINDEX Database—Measuring Financial Inclusion Around the World".

Figures

• Figure 1: Financial Sector Depth and Development (2013)

• Figure 2: Mobile Banking Accounts (percent of adults reporting, 2012 and 2014)

• Figure 3: Reasons for Not Having a Bank Account

• Figure 4.A: Cross-Country Bank Profitability—Return on Equity (percent, 2011)

• Figure 4.B: Cross-Country Costs of Banking Services—Interest Rate Spreads (percent, 2014)

• Figure 5: Urban Population (percent of total population, 2014)

• Figure 1: Exchange Rate and Reserves

• Figure 2: Capital and Financial Account

• Figure 3: Excess Reserves

• Figure 4: Change in BPNG's Assets

• Figure 6: Mapping of Foreign Exchange Market Mechanisms to Exchange Rate Regimes

• Figure 7: Spot Market Options—Considerations

• Figure 1: Composition of the PNG Economy, 2014

• Figure 2: Subsoil Assets per Capita, 2005

• Figure 3: Internet and Mobile Phone Subscriptions, 2012

• Figure 4: Water and Sanitation Access, 2012

• Figure 5: Life Expectancy at Birth and Human Development Index

• Figure 6: Institutional Strength, 2014

• Figure 7: Ease of Doing Business, 2015