20210902-牛津经济研究院-US_Jackson_Hole_memo_Don_t_fear_the_taper_3页_316kb

Jackson Hole Memo Summary

Core Message

• Powell's speech at Jackson Hole emphasized not to fear the Fed's tapering as it did not materially alter policy outlook, but clarified that inflation concerns are less immediate than employment figures. Key themes included the gradual nature of stimulus withdrawal and reduced risk of a repeat "taper tantrum."

Key Findings

• Fed policy outlook: Rates may rise, but timing is uncertain; tapering is separate from lift-off, which could occur as late as Q1 2023.
• Asset prices and yields: Focus on interest rates is more critical for valuation; Fed tapering is easily accommodated by price-insensitive buyers, supported by the new Standing Repo Facility and improved foreign demand for Treasuries.
• Economic outlook: Expect sustained above-trend growth and tighter financial conditions, which could sustain risk assets, with high-yield spreads remaining compressed and USD facing pressure.
• Timeline: First rate lift-off pushed to late 2022 or early 2023, contingent on employment data and taper progress. Yield curve steepening and reflationary pressures are anticipated as economic cycle continues.

Market Implications

• Positive sentiment expected short-term for risk assets due to delayed rate hikes and economic resilience.
• Feedback loop: Meeting employment data will drive market expectations; strong jobs reports shorten waiting period for hikes, while weak reports delay them benignly for assets.
• Central bank dynamics: Other major central banks likely remain on hold, supporting US Treasury demand and stable yields amidst global growth.

Tactical Notes

• Fed policy emphasis on "full employment" ahead, shifting focus to employment reports.
• Summary of ongoing trade positions and their status.