> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Automotive Outlook 2026 Summary ## Core Content The *Automotive Outlook 2026* report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) provides an in-depth analysis of the global automotive industry's challenges and opportunities in the coming year. It highlights the impact of trade barriers, the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), and the shifting dynamics of global automakers, particularly the growing influence of Chinese manufacturers. --- ## Main Points and Key Information ### 1. **Global Automotive Market Trends** - **New-car sales** are expected to rise by **2.5% year on year** in 2026, reaching **68 million units**, the highest since 2017, but still **1% below** the record high of 69 million units. - **EVs** will remain the best-performing segment, with **15% growth** in sales to **25.8 million units**, despite the absence of US EV incentives. - **Commercial vehicle (CV) sales** will experience a marginal decline, with global growth slowing from **15% in 2025** to a **0.1% decline** in 2026. - **US car sales** will fall by **3%** in 2026 due to the imposition of **US import tariffs** and the removal of **EV purchase incentives**. ### 2. **Supply Chain Reconfiguration** - Automakers will shift from **just-in-time** to **just-in-case** supply chains to improve **resilience** and **reduce policy exposure**. - High-value components like **battery cells, motors, and electronics** will be sourced closer to final assembly plants. - Companies such as **Hyundai, Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Toyota** are increasing **local production** in the US to avoid tariffs. - **Chinese components** will be reduced in favor of sourcing from **South Korea, India, and ASEAN**. ### 3. **Chinese Automakers' Global Expansion** - Chinese carmakers, led by **BYD, SAIC, and Geely**, will expand their **overseas footprint**, particularly in **Europe, Latin America, and ASEAN**. - **BYD** will start production in **Hungary and Turkey** to avoid **EU tariffs** of up to **45%** on BEVs. - **Chery** will open a new plant in **Mexico**, and **GAC and Great Wall Motors** will increase operations in **Brazil**, where **EV import tariffs** will rise to **35%** by July 2026. - Chinese automakers will face **risks** including **overreliance on the domestic market**, **slow sales growth**, and **weaker support in foreign markets**. ### 4. **Regulatory and Policy Developments** - **China** will introduce **EV export licence requirements** starting **January 1, 2026**, to control domestic price wars and manage vehicle supplies. - **USMCA renewal negotiations** will focus on **tariffs, EV investment, nearshoring, and countering Chinese dominance**, scheduled for **July 2026**. - **Euro 7 emission standards**, effective **November 29, 2026**, will apply to all vehicles, including **EVs**, with stricter rules on **non-exhaust emissions** and **longer compliance periods**. ### 5. **Challenges and Opportunities** - **Cybersecurity** is a growing concern, with attacks on **Jaguar Land Rover** highlighting vulnerabilities in internal and customer data. - **Trade barriers** may increase to counter **Chinese EV exports**, while **semiconductor trade** will see frequent policy changes. - **Consolidation** is expected in the industry, especially in **Europe**, as companies seek to cut costs and remain competitive, potentially leading to **job losses** and **supply chain disruptions**. ### 6. **Key Events and Timelines** - **January 1, 2026**: China introduces EV export licences. - **July 2026**: USMCA renewal negotiations begin. - **November 29, 2026**: Euro 7 emission standards take effect. --- ## Conclusion The global automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation in 2026, driven by **trade policies**, **EV growth**, and **increased competition**. While **EVs** remain the strongest segment, **sales growth** will slow, and **supply chain adjustments** will be necessary. **Chinese automakers** are set to expand globally, challenging established players and prompting **protectionist measures**. **Regulatory changes**, **cybersecurity threats**, and **market consolidation** will further shape the landscape, requiring **strategic foresight** and **adaptation** from all stakeholders.