2018年-查塔姆研究所_Turkmenistans_Domestic_and_Foreign_Policy_9页_262kb

Turkmenistan's Domestic and Foreign Policy Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Turkmenistan's domestic and foreign policy landscape as of October 2011, highlighting the country's political and human rights challenges, economic issues, and foreign policy strategies, particularly in relation to energy and international relations.

Domestic Policy and Human Rights Situation

Key Issues

• Human Rights Concerns: Turkmenistan's human rights record remains poor, with reports of arbitrary detention, lack of access to justice, and inhumane treatment in prisons.
• Controlled Civil Society: The government only allows highly-controlled quasi-NGOs to operate. Only two NGOs have been officially registered since 2006.
• Education System: The education system is underfunded and inefficient, with no new textbooks for years. The Ruhnama is still part of the curriculum, and students are forced to participate in national celebrations. The informal economy is significant, with bribes required for admission to medical school.
• Political Stability and Corruption: Despite political stability and resource wealth, the government has failed to translate this into widespread economic development. Wealth is concentrated among the ruling elite, and corruption is widespread due to low salaries and lack of accountability.
• Ethnic and Gender Dynamics: The government maintains a dominant ethnic Turkmen identity, with non-Turkmen representation in politics being minimal. Women are required to wear national costumes at work, and top positions are primarily held by members of the President's clan.

Government Response

• The government claims Turkmenistan is the only country in the region without ethnic violence and uses this as a justification for its policies.
• It denies the presence of HIV and restricts access to information and medical services for those who test positive.
• International organizations face challenges in accessing the country and documenting abuses due to restricted access and government interference.

Foreign and Energy Policy

Energy as a Foreign Policy Tool

• Energy Doctrine: Turkmenistan's foreign policy is heavily influenced by its energy sector, particularly natural gas. The doctrine of permanent neutrality has been maintained since Niyazov's presidency.
• Pipeline Projects: The TAPI pipeline is a key foreign policy initiative, but it faces significant challenges, including lack of investment, security concerns, and geopolitical tensions. The Nabucco pipeline is considered less viable due to the absence of upstream supply and political uncertainties.
• Russia and China Relations: Relations with Russia have been strained since the 2009 gas explosion. China is a major buyer of Turkmen gas, but the government has not fully engaged with it. Turkmenistan has limited export capacity and is focused on securing deals rather than long-term resource preservation.

Regional Engagement

• Turkmenistan avoids participation in regional organizations, which allows it to maintain isolation and avoid international scrutiny.
• It hosts various international events and initiatives, such as the UN Centre for Preventative Diplomacy and the Caspian Environmental Forum, but these are not backed by genuine policy changes or expertise.

Investment and Economic Strategy

• Private Sector Development: The government is promoting the private sector, aiming for 70% of non-oil and gas GDP to come from it by 2020. The EBRD has invested in several private sector projects, but investment in oil and gas is restricted due to lack of transparency.
• Budget and Transparency Issues: The government's budget exceeds its revenues for three years, raising concerns about sustainability. Off-budget funds, such as the stabilisation fund, lack transparency, and the mechanism for governmental expenditure is unclear.

Questions and Discussion

Regional Stability and Neutrality

• Turkmenistan values regional stability and permanent neutrality, which has historically protected it from external pressures.
• The country is involved in peacekeeping initiatives but maintains a cautious stance towards external engagement.

Economic and Social Challenges

• Subsidies and Inequality: Subsidies on gas and other commodities provide disposable income to urban populations but fail to reach rural areas. These subsidies also allow the government to exert control over people's lives.
• Infrastructure and Waste: The government spends on large, unneeded projects (white elephants), which could be better used to improve the quality of life and economic development.

International Engagement

• The EU and US have limited leverage over Turkmenistan, and the government often uses international engagement for propaganda.
• The lack of transparency and the absence of reliable financial data make Turkmenistan an unattractive investment destination.

Conclusion

• The international community remains the only potential force for reform in Turkmenistan.
• NGOs and international organizations continue to play a crucial role in documenting abuses and keeping the situation in the global spotlight.
• Turkmenistan's future depends on addressing internal governance issues, improving transparency, and engaging with the international community in a meaningful way.