2025-06-16-Bernstein-欧盟半导体行业首次覆盖_重任在肩——阿斯麦（ASML）表现与市场一致_贝西（Besi）和英飞凌（Infineon）表现优于市场_99页_5mb

ASML (Market-Perform, €700)

• Recommendation: Market-Perform due to mixed outlook. Upside from a premium valuation, but risks include slower EUV growth than guidance and inventory normalization in China.
• Key Highlights:
  • Dominant in EUV lithography but diminishing returns from its dominance.
  • Revenue growth expected at 7% CAGR (2024-2030), below industry average.
  • TP of €700 (5% upside) at 25x P/E, below historical average.
• Risks: China overstocking, slow adoption of advanced packaging, competitive pressures in EUV.

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Besi (Outperform, €167)

• Recommendation: Outperform as hybrid bonding and thermocompression bonding (TCB) are key growth drivers.
• Key Highlights:
  • 91% share in hybrid bonding, fastest-growing segment.
  • TCB potential with fluxless technology, recent order from Micron.
  • Revenue CAGR of 24.6% (2024-2027), driven by advanced packaging trends.
• Risks: Slower adoption of hybrid bonding than expected, inventory challenges in conventional packaging.

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Infineon (Outperform, €45)

• Recommendation: Outperform due to leadership in automotive microcontrollers (MCUs) and power semiconductors.
• Key Highlights:
  • ~32% market share in auto MCUs, targeting 50% by 2027.
  • SiC growth at 24% CAGR (2024-2029), despite oversupply.
  • EPS growth of 9% CAGR (2024-2027), with TP of €45 (27% upside).
• Risks: Automotive cycle timing, SiC oversupply, valuation compression.