2026年62项将塑造和不会塑造未来的技术趋势白皮书_35页_6mb

2026 Technology Trends Summary

Core Content

2026 is expected to be a year of pragmatic transformation in the technology sector, marked by a shift from crisis mode to cautious optimism. Organizations will focus on technologies that reduce risk, lower cost, and directly boost productivity. The emphasis is on disciplined modernization, where the success of enterprises will depend on delivering measurable value and addressing immediate operational challenges.

Main Trends That Will Happen

1. Smart Wearable Sales Will Strengthen

• Smartwatches will remain the dominant category, with a projected +6.5% YoY revenue growth in 2026.
• Smart rings are expected to grow by 9.7%, reaching $3.6 billion in sales, driven by improved battery life and sensors.
• Smart clothing will see 15% growth, with features like gesture recognition, thermo-regulation, and health monitoring becoming more common.

2. Open Standards in AI Data Centers Will Proliferate

• Open standards will enhance interoperability and modularity in AI data centers.
• The Open Compute Project (OCP) and Ultra Accelerator Link (UALink) will continue to shape the landscape.
• New standards such as Ethernet for Scale-Up Networking (ESUN) will support multi-vendor, scalable AI infrastructure.

3. Cloud Sovereignty Will Take Over

• Enterprises will prioritize sovereign cloud software stacks, moving beyond data residency and accessibility.
• Providers like STACKIT and NextGen Cloud will gain traction by offering open compute, predictable economics, and contractual guarantees.
• U.S.-based hyperscalers must partner or acquire regional players to meet growing demand for sovereign cloud solutions.

4. Camera-Based Driver Monitoring Systems Will Grow Rapidly

• Regulatory requirements in the European Union will drive the adoption of camera-based DMS systems.
• 7 million DMS-equipped vehicles are expected to be shipped in 2026, with further growth in 2027.
• This trend is driven by the Advanced Driver Distraction Warning (ADDW) component of the General Safety Regulation (GSR2).

5. AI Agents Will Unify In-Building Wireless Technologies

• AI agents will simplify in-building wireless connectivity by integrating DAS, DRS, and private cellular.
• The Model Context Protocol (MCP) will enable interoperability and global optimization across different connectivity systems.
• This will allow for real-time reconfiguration, workflow automation, and enhanced performance in enterprise environments.

Main Trends That Won't Happen

6. AI-RAN Will Not Take Off in 2026

• Despite vendor interest, AI-RAN will not see meaningful commercial deployments due to lack of proof of performance and ROI.
• Operator reluctance persists due to high energy consumption, proprietary solutions, and vendor lock-in.
• Modest testing and deployment will continue, with no clear path to mass adoption.

7. New AI-First Neoclouds in Europe and North America Won't Materialize

• Neoclouds will not gain significant traction in mature markets like Europe and North America.
• High competition, falling on-demand GPU prices, and domestic supplier readiness will limit growth.
• China is seen as the next potential market, but with different regulatory and functional requirements.

8. Quantum Readiness in Government-Issued and National ID Cards Won't Be Achieved by 2026

• Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) will face delays due to lack of ICAO standards, memory and computational constraints, and interoperability challenges.
• Quantum-resistant payment cards are not expected to be widely adopted in 2026 due to limited vulnerability to quantum threats and ongoing technical and standardization hurdles.

9. Biometric Payment Cards Will See a Final Decline

• The biometric payment card trend will continue to fade, with limited adoption due to high costs and complex enrollment.
• These cards will be used more as vendor showcases than as mainstream products.
• Zwipe's insolvency in 2025 highlights the challenges in commercial adoption.

Key Insights

• AI will remain a key topic but will focus on practical applications rather than visionary promises.
• Geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues will continue to shape enterprise decision-making.
• Regulatory mandates will play a significant role in technology adoption, especially in automotive and identity markets.
• Sovereignty and security are becoming central concerns for enterprises, influencing cloud and data center strategies.
• Standardization and interoperability will be critical for broader AI and quantum adoption.

Conclusion

2026 will be a year of disciplined innovation and pragmatic adoption, with technologies that offer clear value gaining traction. The focus will shift from hype-driven investments to solutions that address real-world challenges. While AI, 5G, and cloud sovereignty will see growth, AI-RAN and quantum readiness will remain on the horizon, requiring further standardization and validation.