20260520-招银国际-1Q26_review_solid_user_traffic_growth_and_monetization_improvement_7页_1mb

Bilibili (BILI US) 1Q26 Financial Review and Analysis

Core Content Summary

Bilibili reported its first-quarter 2026 (1Q26) financial results, showing solid user traffic growth and monetization improvements. Total revenue increased by 7% year-over-year (YoY) to RMB7.47 billion, aligning with the Bloomberg consensus estimate. Adjusted net income rose by 63% YoY to RMB593 million, surpassing the consensus estimate by 11% due to investment income of RMB65 million. The company's user community continued to grow, with daily active users (DAU) and average daily time spent up by 8% and 10% respectively, driven by quality content, a community-first strategy, and AI integration.

For the second-quarter 2026 (2Q26E), revenue is expected to grow by 8% YoY to RMB7.90 billion, primarily fueled by ad revenue growth. The analyst raises the FY26-28E earnings forecast by 2-5%, anticipating continuous efficiency gains and operating leverage, despite increased AI investment. The target price for Bili is revised to US$30.0 per ADS, down from US$30.5, mainly due to sector valuation decline.

Main Revenue Streams and Performance

• VAS (Value-Added Services): Revenue grew by 4% YoY to RMB2.91 billion (39% of total revenue), supported by stable live streaming performance and strong growth in the Fan Charging program (over 50% YoY increase).
• Advertising: Revenue increased by 30% YoY to RMB2.59 billion (35% of total revenue), driven by a 19% YoY increase in total user time spent and AI-enhanced monetization efficiency. Ad budget from the AI tech sector surged by over 170% YoY.
• Mobile Games: Revenue declined by 12% YoY to RMB1.52 billion (20% of total revenue), mainly due to the normalization of revenue from SanMou.
• IP Derivatives and Others: Revenue decreased by 4% YoY to RMB448 million, with a PS multiple of 0.3x.

AI's Role in Business Growth

AI has significantly accelerated Bilibili's business growth across multiple areas:

• Content Creation: AI-powered tools increased daily video submissions by 19% YoY.
• Content Discovery: AI models improved the identification and promotion of high-quality content, leading to a 30% YoY increase in creators with over 1k followers.
• Ad Monetization: Performance-based advertising conversion rates rose by 25% YoY, and AI-powered automated ad campaigns reached 85% penetration in 1Q26, enhancing ad placement efficiency.

Financial Performance and Margins

• Adjusted OPM (Operating Margin): Increased by 2.1 percentage points (ppt) YoY to 7.0% in 1Q26, supported by GPM expansion (+0.8ppt YoY) and operating leverage.
• Expected Impact of AI Investment: Management estimates AI-related investment will impact FY26E earnings by approximately RMB500 million.
• Adjusted Net Margin: Expected to improve by 1.4ppt YoY to 9.5% in FY26E, supported by operating leverage and efficiency gains.

Valuation and Earnings Forecasts

SOTP Valuation Breakdown

• Advertising Business: Valued at US$17.5 per ADS (59% of total valuation), based on a 21x 2026E PE. This multiple is above the industry average of 19x.
• VAS Business: Valued at US$5.7 per ADS (19% of total valuation), based on a 1.4x 2026E PS. This aligns with the average PS of other video platforms.
• Mobile Games: Valued at US$6.6 per ADS (22% of total valuation), based on a 17x 2026E PE, matching the industry average.
• IP Derivatives and Others: Valued at US$0.2 per ADS (1% of total valuation), based on a 0.3x 2026E PS, in line with the average PS of e-commerce platforms.

Peer Comparison

• Online Games:

  • NetEase (NTES US): Price at US$113.6, EPS growth 4% (FY26E), 11% (FY27E), PE 12x (FY26E), 11x (FY27E).
  • Electronic Arts (EA US): Price at US$201.1, EPS growth 31% (FY26E), 4% (FY27E), PE 23x (FY26E), 22x (FY27E).
  • Nexon (3659 JP): Price at JPY2,285.0, EPS growth 11% (FY26E), 3% (FY27E), PE 15x (FY26E), 14x (FY27E).

• Online Advertising:

  • Focus Media (002027 CH): Price at CNY5.8, PE 13x (FY26E), 13x (FY27E).
  • Meta (Meta US): Price at US$611.2, PE 17x (FY26E), 16x (FY27E).
  • Google (GOOG US): Price at US$393.1, PE 27x (FY26E), 26x (FY27E).

Analyst Ratings and Investment Outlook

• Ratings: CMBIGM maintains a BUY rating on Bilibili, citing a healthy user community and monetization improvements.
• Target Price: US$30.0 per ADS, with a potential upside of 50.0% from the current price of US$20.00.
• Valuation: The company's valuation is based on a SOTP model, with the target price reflecting sector valuation trends and growth expectations.

Shareholding and Market Performance

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Rui Chen: 11.6%
  • Tencent: 10.6%

• Stock Performance (12-month):

  • Absolute: -17.2%
  • Relative (to IXIC): -29.4%

Analyst Disclosures

The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal opinions and that no part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the report's content. The analyst also confirms that they and their associates have not traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 days prior to its release and will not trade within 3 business days after release. They have no financial interests in the companies covered in the report.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
• NOT RATED: Not rated by CMBIGM.
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.