世界发展银行-Tunisia-Public-Expenditure-Review-_-A-New-Pact-for-the-Transition---Modernizing-the-State-for--Better-and-Fairer-Public-Spending_79页_2mb

Tunisia Public Expenditure Review Summary

Core Content

This report, Tunisia Public Expenditure Review: A New Pact for the Transition, provides a comprehensive analysis of Tunisia's fiscal and public spending challenges. It outlines the need for structural reforms in the public administration and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to support a more efficient, equitable, and sustainable development model. The review is based on detailed data from the World Bank Open Budget initiative and a year-long data collection effort from key SOEs.

Main Viewpoints

• Fiscal Challenges: Tunisia's public debt has increased by almost 30 percentage points of GDP since 2008, reaching over 70% of GDP in 2017. Contingent liabilities of SOEs are equivalent to 14% of GDP, and the pension system deficit could rise to TND 4.6 billion by 2020.

• Public Spending Inefficiencies: High public spending does not translate into improved service quality. The public administration and SOEs are seen as inefficient, with low productivity, high bureaucracy, and corruption affecting performance.

• Social Contract and Development Model: The traditional model of the State as a job provider and subsidizer of goods and services has become unsustainable. This model has led to significant fiscal and economic risks, including weak private sector growth, low job creation, and informality.

• Education and Health Sector Issues: Despite high spending, education and health services are underperforming. High repetition and dropout rates, especially in underprivileged areas, and an uneven distribution of skilled professionals (e.g., teachers, doctors) highlight inefficiencies and inequities.

• SOEs Performance: SOEs in key sectors such as energy, water, and transport have deteriorated in performance and financial viability. Technical and commercial inefficiencies, such as high losses and poor pricing mechanisms, have led to unsustainable operations.

• Need for Reforms: The report emphasizes the necessity of a "New Pact for the Transition" that includes structural reforms in public administration and SOEs, improved domestic resource mobilization, and a shift from subsidies to targeted social assistance.

Key Information

Public Administration

• Employment: The public administration employs 645,000 people or 7.4% of the working-age population.
• Wage Bill: Central government wage bill spending increased by 4 percentage points of GDP since 2010, reaching 14.7% of GDP in 2017, or more than 60% of government revenues.
• Performance Issues: Public administration is characterized by low productivity, high bureaucracy, and poor service quality. Citizens and firms have negative experiences with the system.

Education Sector

• Spending: Education spending is around 6.7% of GDP, with the wage bill accounting for over 95% of total spending.
• Staffing and Quality: Teacher-to-student ratios have improved, but teaching hours remain low. Spatial distribution of experienced teachers exacerbates regional disparities.
• Reforms Needed: Strategic staffing, performance-based pay and promotion, and modernization of school administration are essential. Integration of technology and expansion of pre-school and preparatory education are also recommended.

Health Sector

• Spending: Public health expenditure is below international averages, with inefficiencies in service delivery and resource allocation.
• Inequities: There is a significant disparity in health services, with most specialists located in coastal areas, leaving interior regions underserved.
• Reforms: Improving HR policies, modernizing infrastructure, and introducing evaluation frameworks to measure learning outcomes are critical.

Energy and Water Services

• Technical Losses: Electricity distribution losses increased from 12% to 14% of generated power between 2010 and 2016. Water losses rose from 24% to 36% of mobilized resources.
• Subsidies: Energy and food subsidies are regressive and inefficient. Reforms are needed to reduce subsidies while protecting vulnerable groups.
• SOE Performance: SOEs are struggling with poor investment efficiency, delays in project execution, and inadequate maintenance.

Transport Sector

• SOE Operations: Public transport companies like Transtu have seen a drop in operational bus functionality from 82% to 52% between 2010 and 2015.
• Challenges: SOEs face commercial losses due to arrears and theft, highlighting the need for better financial management and governance.

Pension System

• Deficit and Liquidity: The pension system is facing significant deficits and liquidity shortfalls, with a projected deficit of TND 4.6 billion by 2020.
• Reform Priorities: Addressing high contribution rates, implicit incentives for early retirement, and disparities in pension calculations based on career and wage profiles is essential.
• Social Protection: The current social protection system is heavily reliant on subsidies and needs to be transformed into more targeted and sustainable safety nets.

Recommendations

• Modernize Public Administration: Develop integrated information systems, improve HR management, and promote a digital government program.
• Reform SOEs: Improve governance, reduce subsidies, and enhance technical and commercial performance. Encourage private sector participation where necessary.
• Strengthen Social Protection: Transition from subsidies to targeted cash transfers, expand coverage, and improve the efficiency of social assistance programs.
• Improve Fiscal Sustainability: Enhance domestic resource mobilization by reducing tax avoidance, improving tax administration, and making the tax system more equitable.
• Support Inclusive Growth: Address regional disparities and improve the quality of public services to support human capital development and private sector growth.

Conclusion

The report underscores the need for a new political and social pact to guide Tunisia's transition. This pact must be led by reform champions and supported by a pluralistic civil society. It must also include tax reforms and long-term strategies to ensure fiscal sustainability, improve public service quality, and promote private sector development.