2025-06-16-高盛-巴西建筑业-房屋建筑商_税收豁免辩论中的负债分析_13页_560kb

Report Summary

Analysts: Jorel Guilloty, Igor Machado

Date: 15 June 2025

Focus: Brazilian homebuilder liabilities in light of the provisional presidential decree (MP) removing tax exemption for specific securities (CRIs, LCI, LIG, REITs).

Key Points:

1. Provisional Decree: A recent Brazilian presidential decree introduces a 5% withholding tax on previously tax-exempt investment vehicles like CRIs (Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários) and LCI/LIG securities, effective for new issuances starting in 2026. Existing liabilities CURRENTLY held by homebuilders are NOT EXPOSED to this provision.
2. Impact on Debt Cost: The loss of tax exemption on these key funding sources would significantly increase debt costs for homebuilders.
   • Direcional: Heavily exposed (~84% of debt to CRIs). A tax removal could increase its total debt cost by 60bps (from 12.0% to 12.6%).
   • Cyrela: Highly exposed (~55% to CRIs). Tax removal could increase total debt cost by 40bps (from 11.6% to 12.0%).
   • MRV: Moderately exposed (~53% to CRIs). Tax removal could increase total debt cost by 70bps (from 11.9% to 12.3%).
   • EZTEC: Highly exposed (~55% to CRIs). Tax removal could increase total debt cost by 30bps (from 11.6% to 12.6%).
3. Funding Context: CRIs represent a significant portion of funding for homebuilders. Alternative financing (LCI/LIG/CRIs/FIIs) has grown in the R$2.4tn residential financing market (to 41% in 2024). The trend growth in SBPE/FIIs/LCI/CRIs is driven partly by relatively higher yields/flexibility despite taxation, and banks prefer lending to homebuyers rather than developers.
4. Conflicts: The report includes a disclaimer highlighting that Goldman Sachs may have a conflict of interest, as it owns positions in the discussed companies (Cyrela, Direcional, EZTEC, MRV). The analysis and ratings may be influenced by these stakes.