> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 宏观专题 # 宏观经济深度研究 # 独立性承压下的货币政策路径 2026年1月美联储议息会议点评 北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布保持基准利率不变在 $3.50\% - 3.75\%$ ，与市场预期一致。当前来看，美国劳动力市场尚未显著失衡，这为联储本次保持利率不变提供了现实基础。但从结构上来看，美国经济所面临的约束依然突出。关税政策不确定性加剧库存波动，政府停摆影响财政节奏以及经济数据可读性，通胀水平保持下行但仍高于政策目标。综合而言，考虑到美联储在2025年9月至12月已连续降息三次的背景下，本次会议选择按兵不动、维持审慎观察的政策取向是合理的。值得关注的是，政治环境变化正使美联储独立性面临新的制度性挑战，相关研究表明政治压力可能通过扰动通胀预期，对中长期价格稳定构成风险。展望未来，美联储货币政策路径面临两个关键变量：一是劳动力市场信号的滞后性抬升，二是美联储主席一职面临换届。在当前宏观不确定性上升、模型解释力下降的环境下，货币政策对制度框架和委员会共识的依赖度相应提高。新任主席在议程设定、讨论框架与沟通口径上的引导作用，可能增强委员会对潜在下行风险的重视程度，使政策更容易在信号模糊阶段向宽松方向倾斜，而非等待数据出现明显恶化后再被动调整。在上述多重因素共同作用下，2026年美联储货币政策的实际宽松节奏，可能快于、幅度也可能高于市场当前基于传统数据框架所隐含的预期。我们预计2026年全年降息2-3次，总计50-75个基点。 年内首次议息会议，美联储保持基准利率不变。北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储议息会议宣布保持基准利率不变在 $3.50\% - 3.75\%$ ，与市场预期一致。从经济增长来看，美国经济保持了一定的韧性。2025年三季度美国GDP环比折年率终值为 $4.4\%$ ，短期增长动能尚存。但具体来看，三季度私人投资对经济增长整体贡献微弱，约为0.03个百分点，反映企业在融资成本高企与政策不确定性下，资本开支决策依然偏向保守。同时，当季增速亦受到政府支出与库存波动的扰动，反映真实内生需求的程度有所减弱。考虑到2025年末政府停摆对部分宏观统计与财政支出节奏的影响，后续季度数据波动预计将有所抬升。从劳动力市场来看，最新数据显示就业扩张有所放缓。2025年12月非农新增就业为5万人，失业率回落至 $4.4\%$ ，10月和11月就业人数下修7.6万，全年就业增加58.4万，为2020年来最弱。虽然失业率有所回落好于预期，但在劳动参与率和就业人数同步走低的情况下，就业市场喜忧参半。从通胀层面来看，核心通胀整体延续回落趋势，2025年12月CPI同比上涨 $2.7\%$ ，核心CPI同比 $2.6\%$ ，逐渐接近联储 $2\%$ 的通胀目标。从金融条件来看，尽管高利率环境对实体经济形成约束，但整体金融体系仍保持稳定。金融市场进入预期宽松与自我强化阶段，削弱了高利率货币政策的传导力度。综合而言，经济增长和劳动力市场尚未显著失衡，通胀水平回落趋势延续但仍高于目标，这为联储本次保持利率不变提供了现实基础。在2025年9至12月已连续三次降息的背景下，本次会议美联储选择按兵不动、维持审慎观察的政策取向是合理的。 从历史经验到现实挑战：行政干预对美联储独立性的冲击。自2025年4月特朗普再次就任总统以来，美联储面临的政治环境趋于复杂。行政部门针对货币政策取向的公开表态与舆论施压显著增加，2026年1月，美联储主席鲍威尔证实美国司法部门已向美联储发出传票，针对美联储大楼翻新项目展开调查，这使得围绕美联储独立性的制度边界问题进一步发酵。NBER发布的相关工作论文<sup>1</sup> 2026年1月29日 程实，博士 (852) 2206 8049 shi.cheng@icbc.com.cn 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.com # 相关研究： 1/26/2026：《以历史主动精神应对混沌演化——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之二》 1/22/2026：《人工智能重塑劳动力市场的理论认知》 1/14/2026:《从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧”》 1/7/2026：《价值链攀升的中国坐标——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之二》 1/6/2026：《人工智能时代的中国比较优势》 1/5/2026：《如何充分挖掘经济潜能？——变局世界与潜能中国系列研究之一》 12/30/2025：《纵横捭阖：全球价值链重构与中国产业体系突破——“经纬之间纵横其链”中国价值链系列研究之一》 12/23/2025：《中等发达国家的丰富内涵与政策指向》 12/16/2025：《每一代人都有自己的Labubu——从新需求×新供给看中国消费新格局》 12/12/2025：《格物致知，成势在人——投资于物和投资于人的时代逻辑》 12/11/2025：《利率下行，风险上行——2025年12月美联储议息会议点评》 12/5/2025：《人工智能浪潮中的真实与泡影》 11/24/2025：《在临界中博弈路径——2026年全球大类资产展望》 11/21/2025：《在交汇中重塑平衡——2026年香港经济展望》 11/20/2025：《在变化中破局开新——2026年中国经济展望》 11/17/2025：《在混沌中构建秩序——2026年全球经济展望》 利用档案记录，构建了一个覆盖1933年至2016年间美国总统与美联储官员个人互动的独特数据集，试图从历史维度刻画行政权力与货币当局之间的互动轨迹，这为理解政治压力对货币政策的影响提供了系统参考。学者以美国尼克松总统对时任美联储主席伯恩斯的系统性施压为关键历史节点，构建了叙事识别方法，用以区分政治接触与政治干预。研究通过对包含个人互动信息的结构向量自回归模型施加叙事约束，结合文本证据与历史情境分析，识别出可被解释为政治压力冲击的独立扰动项，从而避免将一般宏观政策沟通误判为政治干预的风险。研究结论显示，政治压力冲击对宏观经济的影响主要有四：第一，政治压力会显著且持续地推高通胀水平，其影响具有明显的长期性；第二，对实际经济活动的提振效应在统计意义上并不显著，表明政治干预并未有效改善产出或就业；第三，此类压力不仅在总统任期内产生影响，还会在其任期之外引发通胀事件，显示出明显的跨周期溢出效应；第四，与标准的扩张性货币政策冲击相比，政治压力冲击的核心传导机制并非通过传统利率渠道，而是通过显著扰动通胀预期发挥作用。参考另一篇从制度视角出发的论文<sup>2</sup>，其对1935年《银行法》的立法过程进行了系统回溯。研究指出，美联储独立性是国会在充分意识到总统可能出于政治动机干预货币政策的前提下，有意构建的一套制度护栏。然而，现实因素仍给制度安排带来挑战。虽然法律严格限制了总统的直接干预权力，行政当局仍可通过会面沟通、公开施压、舆论动员、任命暗示等方式，对美联储的决策环境形成持续影响。在当前环境下，货币政策面临的现实掣肘主要体现在三个层面：一是持续扩大的财政压力对货币政策形成隐性约束；二是行政部门通过直接的财政宽松手段绕过货币政策传导机制；三是针对美联储官员的舆论施压与司法诉讼，使货币政策问题从经济层面上升为公共与政治议题。 两大变量引导未来货币政策走向进一步宽松。综合而言，未来美联储货币政策走向面临两个关键变量：一是经典劳动力市场框架的现实偏离。我们在此前的报告中提到过<sup>3</sup>，近年来劳动力市场信号整体滞后，菲利普斯曲线趋于平坦，贝弗里奇曲线整体外移。薪资增速与物价之间的联动关系走弱使得依赖工资数据判断通胀走势容易高估通胀的持续性。在经济出现下行压力的初期，就业市场可能仍表现稳定，但企业盈利、融资环境和金融市场波动已开始恶化。这意味着货币政策需要更早关注潜在风险，如果货币政策过度等待就业数据出现明显转弱，政策调整的时点可能偏晚，反而加剧经济和金融波动。因此，美联储在未来决策中可能更倾向于采取前瞻性的风险管理思路，即在核心就业指标尚未明显走弱之前，便提前释放一定的政策缓冲空间，从而推动宽松政策前置。这一点与美联储主席鲍威尔自2025年9月以来在货币政策记者会上反复强调风险管理的口径一致。二是美联储主席一职面临换届。在当前宏观不确定性上升、模型解释力下降的环境下，货币政策对制度信号和委员会共识的依赖度相应提高。新任主席在议程设定、讨论框架与沟通口径上的引导作用，可能增强委员会对潜在下行风险的重视程度，使政策更容易在模糊信号阶段向宽松方向倾斜，而非等待数据出现明显恶化后再被动调整。在上述多重因素共同作用下，2026年美联储货币政策的实际宽松节奏，可能快于、幅度也可能高于市场当前基于传统数据框架所隐含的预期，我们预计2026年全年降息2-3次，总计50-75个基点。 # 参考文献： Drechsel, T. (2024). Estimating the effects of political pressure on the Fed: A narrative approach with new data (NBER Working Paper No. 32461). National Bureau of Economic Research. Richardson, H., & Wilcox, D. (2025). How Congress designed the Federal Reserve to be independent of presidential control. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 39(3), 221-238. # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或"我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其裁明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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