德勤Deloitte2024美国经济展望报告消费投资双引擎强力提振经济新一届政府施政重点主导未来走势英文版32页_5mb

Deloitte US Economic Forecast Summary

Core Content

Deloitte's US Economic Forecast provides an analysis of the country's economic trajectory under the incoming administration, highlighting the interplay between policy changes and economic outcomes. The report outlines three scenarios—Baseline, Tax Cuts and Deregulation, and Accelerating Inflation and Shrinking Population—each with different assumptions about the extent of policy implementation and its impact on growth, inflation, and employment.

Main Points

• Current Economic Strength: The US economy has shown a strong recovery from the pandemic, with robust consumer spending, high business investment, and a net exporter of petroleum products. Annual inflation is approaching the Federal Reserve's target without a recession.
• Incoming Administration's Impact: The new administration's policies are expected to influence the economy significantly, though many promises are unlikely to be fully realized. The initial market response to the election was positive, but uncertainty remains.
• Three Scenarios:
  • Baseline (50%): A moderate policy approach, with some tariffs on China and targeted tariffs on other partners, but not on Canada or Mexico. Deportations will increase slightly but not to the level that would drastically affect food prices. Real GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.4% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026, then stabilize between 1.9% and 2.1% from 2027 to 2029.
  • Tax Cuts and Deregulation (30%): This optimistic scenario includes extended tax cuts, reduced corporate tax rates, and fewer tariffs. It predicts higher GDP growth (2.7% annually through 2029), lower inflation, and stronger consumer spending. The labor market benefits from fewer deportations, leading to increased employment.
  • Accelerating Inflation and Shrinking Population (20%): A pessimistic scenario with full implementation of tariffs, significant deportations, and deep government spending cuts. This leads to a contraction in GDP (2.1% in 2026), a recession, and higher inflation (peaking at 3.7% in 2026). The population is expected to shrink due to reduced immigration, and living standards may decline.

Key Economic Sectors

Consumer Spending

• Trends: Real consumer spending remains strong, with a 3.7% increase in Q3 2024. Spending on durable goods is particularly elevated.
• Forecast: Consumer spending is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, 2.4% in 2025, and then slow to 1.7% in 2026 due to tariffs and slower population growth. Durable goods spending is projected to rise by 4.7% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Non-durable goods and services are expected to grow at similar rates.
• Challenges: The Fed's rate cuts will support consumer spending, but the impact of tariffs on real purchasing power will be a concern.

Business Investment

• Drivers: Business investment is supported by the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, which have spurred investment in strategic technologies and manufacturing.
• Forecast: Non-residential business investment is expected to grow at 3.9% in 2024, 3.7% in 2025, and 4.7% in 2026. Growth is projected to remain elevated in the outer years of the forecast.
• Challenges: High interest rates have increased the cost of borrowing, but many firms have sufficient cash reserves to avoid these costs. Tariffs may reduce competitiveness in exports.

Foreign Trade

• Uncertainty: The imposition of tariffs, especially on Chinese goods, is a major concern. The president-elect has proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10–20% on other goods.
• Impact: Tariffs will likely lead to a slowdown in both exports and imports, with growth expected to fall to 0.7% in 2026. The US dollar may appreciate, making exports less competitive.
• Challenges: Tariffs may not achieve their intended reshoring goals within the forecast period, as US producers need time to adapt and find local alternatives. The cost of tariffs will be borne by households and businesses in the short term.

Government Policy

• Spending Cuts: The administration has promised major cuts to federal spending, including the closure of the Department of Education and significant reductions in Medicaid and social security transfers.
• Budget Deficit: The federal budget deficit is expected to rise slightly in 2025 before falling as economic growth outpaces spending in the longer term. The 10-year federal bond rate is forecasted to decrease to 3.9% in 2029.
• Uncertainty: The extent and timing of spending cuts are unclear, and some policies may lead to increased government outlays due to retaliatory actions from trading partners.

Summary of Forecasts

Year	Real GDP Growth	Consumer Spending Growth	Business Investment Growth	Foreign Trade (Exports)	Foreign Trade (Imports)
2024	2.4%	2.8%	3.9%	3.2%	4.4%
2025	1.7%	2.4%	3.7%	0.7%	0.7%
2026	1.9%–2.1%	1.7%	4.7%	0.7%	0.7%

The report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the new administration's policies and their potential long-term impact on the US economy. While the economy is currently strong, the implementation of tariffs, immigration policies, and government spending cuts could lead to varying degrees of economic slowdown or growth.