> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Electricity # 2026 Analysis and forecast to 2030 # INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 32 Member countries, 13 Association countries and beyond. This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. # IEA Member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA # IEA Association countries: Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Kenya Morocco Senegal Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine # Abstract Global power demand growth continues to rise rapidly as the Age of Electricity gathers pace, supported by the increasing electrification of industry, transportation, and the buildings sectors. Growing consumption is also coming from some of the most dynamic segments of global economies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), data centres, and evolving technological innovations. Against this backdrop, Electricity 2026 – the IEA's annual report on global electricity systems and markets – provides in-depth analysis of the recent trends and policy developments underpinning this new era. It includes forecasts for electricity demand, supply and carbon dioxide $(\mathrm{CO}_{2})$ emissions for select countries, by region and worldwide. This year the forecast period has been expanded to five years, 2026-2030, compared with the previous three-year outlook. As electricity use grows, power systems will need greater flexibility to securely and cost-effectively integrate an increasingly diverse mix of electricity generation sources while accommodating evolving demand patterns and technologies. This year's report has a special focus on these challenges with chapters on grids and flexibility. It also includes detailed updates on demand response and utility-scale battery developments. # Acknowledgements, contributors and credits This study was prepared by the Electricity Systems and Markets (ESM) Division of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Directorate of Energy Markets and Security (EMS). The study was designed and directed by Eren Çam, Energy Analyst for Electricity, who also co-ordinated the production of the report. The lead authors of the report were Eren Çam, Marc Casanovas, John Moloney, and Matthew Davis. Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions, including Javier Jorquera Copier, Chaerin Kim and Jacques Warichet. The work greatly benefitted from strategic guidance from Keisuke Sadamori, Director of EMS and Maria Sicilia, Head of ESM. Valuable comments and guidance were provided by other senior management within the IEA, in particular, Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould. In addition, expert guidance and valuable input from Carlos Fernández Álvarez, Senior Energy Analyst, is greatly appreciated. The work benefitted from the guidance and input from Dennis Hesseling, Head of Gas and Coal Markets Division. The report also benefited from analysis and data from Nadim Abillama, Jenny Birkeland, Esra Bozkir Broekman, Gyuri Cho, Johanna Dahl, Celeste Del Vecchio, Carole Etienne, Adrian Gao, Grace Henry, Lydia Jayakumar, Javier Jorquera, Natalie Kauf, Yu Kawasaki, Jinil Kim, Ja Hyun Kim, Claire Lesieur, Augustin Lorne, Akos Losz, Rita Madeira, Edward McDonald, Gergely Molnar, Pedro Nino de Carvalho, Ranya Oualiid, Camille Paillard, Isaac Portugal, Frederick Ritter, Stephan Terhorst, Ottavia Valentini, Matthew Van der Beeuren, Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, and Hasti Wiandita. IEA colleagues across the agency provided valuable input, comments and feedback, in particular, Heymi Bahar, Stephanie Bouckaert, Federico Callioni, Dan Dorner, Michael Drtil, Araceli Fernandez Pales, Paolo Frankl, Pablo Hevia-Koch, Martin Küppers, Rebecca McKimm, Tetsuya Mizuno, Apostolos Petropoulos, Zubin Postwalla, Brendan Reidenbach, Max Schönfisch, Anthony Vautrin and Brent Wanner. The authors would also like to thank Diane Munro for skillfully editing the manuscript and the IEA Communication and Digital Office, in particular, Jethro Mullen, Oliver Joy, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Astrid Dumond. We also thank Einar Einarsson for his assistance in setting up the peer review. Many experts from outside of the IEA reviewed the report and provided valuable comments. They include: Michel Augonnet (CIGRE), Edith Bayer (Oregon Department of Energy), Soukaina Boudoudouh (IRESEN), Salma Boumhaouad (IRESEN), Marco Baroni (Baroni Energy Consulting), Jesse Burton (E3G/ESRG, UCT), Samir Chandra Saxena (POSOCO), Peter Claes (Febeliec), Bram Claeys (RAP), Norberto Cuenca (Enel Green Power), Ganesh Doluweera (CER), Fernando Dominguez (EU DSO Entity), Keith Everhart (Secretariat Economists), Peter Fraser (PeterLFConsulting), Kerry Galloway (AEMO), Paul Giesbertz (EP NL), Michael Grubb (UCL), Xue Han (IREP), Donghoon Kim (SKI), Francisco Laverón (Iberdrola), Xiaomeng Lei (CEC), Rannveig Loken (CIGRE), Christoph Maurer (Consentec), Tatiana Mitrova (Columbia University), Noor Miza Razali (Tenaga Nasional Berhad), Victoria Mollard (AEMC), Emmanuel Neau (EDF), Mika Ohbayashi (Renewable Energy Institute), Jonatan Olsen (Danish Energy Agency), Lars Stephan (Fluence), Eli Pack (AEMO), Yannick Phulpin (EDF), Marcio Szechtman (CIGRE), Andreas Ulbig (RWTH Aachen University), Arjon Valencia (IEMOP), Matthew Wittenstein (ESCAP), Jingjie Zhang (CEC) and Romain Zissler (Renewable Energy Institute). # Table of contents # Executive Summary 8 # Demand 13 # The Age of Electricity has arrived, underpinned by strong demand growth 13 Demand in advanced economies rebounds after a long period of stagnation 13 Electricity consumption set to rise strongly across all sectors. 15 Electricity demand breaks with history, outpacing global GDP growth 16 US and EU electricity demand forecast to post robust growth 18 Per capita electricity consumption will reach new record highs. 19 China's electricity demand on a solid growth path 21 Peak load and demand rise across India 27 # Supply 36 # Renewables and nuclear keep growing and setting records 36 Share of renewables and nuclear in global generation to reach $50\%$ by 2030 36 Growth in renewables, natural gas and nuclear to meet additional demand 37 Uncharacteristic trends in coal-fired generation during 2025 39 Strong solar PV growth remains a common trend across the regions 41 # Grids 46 # Grids are emerging as a bottleneck for connecting supply, demand and storage . 46 Grid technologies and regulatory reforms unlock transmission capacity 46 Record-high connection queues lead to rising curtailment 49 More efficient use of grids via targeted regulatory and policy frameworks 51 Grid-enhancing technology unlocks capacity 64 Synchronisation of Baltic electricity system marked a major milestone 69 # Flexibility 72 # Evolving generation and demand patterns reshape power system needs 72 Demand response offers breakthrough benefits, yet potential is untapped 72 Solar PV capture rates decline, but storage can boost system value 81 Utility-scale batteries are strengthening system flexibility. 84 Managing high solar and wind output during low demand 97 # Emissions 105 # Electricity sector emissions are increasingly decoupling from demand growth . 105 $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ emissions are forecast to plateau through 2030 105 Global $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ intensity decline accelerates as low-carbon energy expands 106 # Prices 109 Affordability and competitiveness take centre stage 109 Wholesale electricity prices continue to differ across regions 109 Negative wholesale pricing trends diverged across markets in 2025 112 Price gaps for energy-intensive industries persist 113 Residential electricity prices remain elevated 117 # Reliability 123 Largescale outages amid system instability and weather impacts 123 Voltage management increasingly important for power system stability 123 Major power supply disruptions triggered by equipment failures 124 Extreme weather events continued to cause major power outages 125 # Regional Focus 128 Asia Pacific 129 Electricity demand to increase strongly after mild weather tempered growth 129 Americas 153 Solar PV and natural gas-fired generation see strong growth through 2030 153 Europe 168 Power demand is increasingly met by renewables while coal use falls rapidly. 168 Eurasia 192 Russian electricity demand contracted, while regional growth stable in 2025 192 Middle East 195 Gas-fired generation rises rapidly while renewables post sharp gains. 195 Africa 204 Growth supported by targeted efforts to expand electricity access 204 # Annexes 216 Summary tables. 216 Regional and country groupings 221 Abbreviations and acronyms 223 Units of measure 223 # Executive Summary # Electricity demand is set to grow strongly through 2030 as the Age of Electricity takes hold Global electricity demand is forecast to increase at a brisk average annual rate of $3.6\%$ over the 2026-2030 forecast period, supported by rising consumption from industry, electric vehicles, air conditioning and data centres. Worldwide electricity demand grew by $3\%$ year-on-year in 2025. This followed growth of $4.4\%$ in 2024, when intense heat waves and strong industrial activity in many regions boosted electricity use. Looking ahead, annual demand growth over the next five years is set to be $50\%$ higher on average compared with the average across the previous decade. For the first time in three decades, excluding periods of crisis-related disruption, global electricity demand outpaced economic growth in 2024 in what is set to become a broader trend in the coming years. Despite a slight reversal in 2025 due to weather conditions that affected electricity demand, a fundamental shift in the longstanding relationship between electricity demand and economic activity is set to be a defining feature of the forecast period. Through 2030, electricity consumption is projected to grow at least 2.5 times as fast as overall energy demand. Emerging economies continue to be the main pillar of demand growth, accounting for nearly $80\%$ of additional electricity consumption through 2030. While India and Southeast Asia are increasingly set to drive rising energy demand over the coming decade, China is forecast to remain the single largest contributor to global electricity demand growth through 2030, accounting for close to $50\%$ of the increase. Over the next five years, China alone is expected to add demand equivalent to the total electricity consumption of the European Union (EU) today, with average growth of $4.9\%$ annually. This is close to its 2025 pace of $5\%$ but slower than its $6.5\%$ average over the past decade. India and Southeast Asia's share of electricity demand growth among emerging economies is forecast to rise substantially by 2030, driven by robust economic growth and rapidly rising demand for air conditioning, which is set to boost both annual consumption and peak loads. Electricity demand growth in advanced economies is accelerating again after 15 years of stagnation. This resurgence signals a new era in which electricity is a major energy input to some of the most dynamic drivers of global economies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), data centres and advanced manufacturing. In 2025, advanced economies accounted for almost $20\%$ of global electricity demand growth, up from $17\%$ in 2024. We expect this share to remain near the $20\%$ level on average over the forecast period, driven by expanding industrial activity and the continued growth of data centres, electric vehicles and other end-uses of electricity. In the United States, electricity demand rose by $2.1\%$ in 2025 and is projected to grow by nearly $2\%$ annually through 2030, with around half of the total increase driven by the rapid expansion of data centres. After rising by less than $1\%$ in 2025, electricity demand in the European Union is expected to grow more strongly. Assuming a moderate rebound in industrial activity, EU demand is forecast to increase by around $2\%$ per year through 2030 – although consumption is not expected to return to 2021 levels before 2028. Many other advanced economies – such as Australia, Canada, Japan and Korea – are also expected to see faster electricity demand growth through 2030. # Half of the world's electricity is forecast to come from renewables and nuclear by 2030 Total generation from renewables is overtaking coal, in line with previous IEA forecasts. With solar PV generating record amounts of electricity, renewable output rose rapidly in 2025, virtually matching the level of coal-fired generation based on the latest available data. This was despite weaker hydropower output in some regions and lower-than-average wind speeds, particularly in Europe, which tempered overall growth in renewable generation. Renewable output is forecast to grow by about 1000 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually through 2030, with solar PV alone accounting for over 600 TWh. In percentage terms, renewable generation is forecast to rise at an annual rate of $8\%$ per year. Renewables and nuclear are together expected to account for around half of global electricity generation by 2030. Nuclear generation set a new record in 2025 and is set to continue rising steadily through 2030. Nuclear power output in 2025 was supported by reactor restarts in Japan, higher generation in France, and new capacity additions in China, India and other countries. While most of the growth in nuclear generation through 2030 is expected to occur in emerging economies, with China alone accounting for around $40\%$ of the global increase, nuclear energy is also regaining strategic importance in many advanced economies, underpinned by supportive policy frameworks to extend the lifetime of reactors and add new capacity. # Although coal generation is set to lose ground globally, it remains the single largest source of electricity in 2030 Globally, coal-fired generation remained broadly flat in 2025, but regional trends diverged in ways not seen in previous years. Coal use declined in India and China due to slower electricity demand growth and the rapid expansion of renewables, and it increased in the United States as higher natural gas prices compared with 2024 and a slowdown in the retirement of coal plants, supported by federal policy, prompted higher coal use in the power sector. In the European Union, record solar generation was partially offset by weak hydropower and wind output, limiting the overall decline in coal use. # Over the 2026-2030 period, renewables, natural gas and nuclear together are expected to meet all additional global electricity demand in aggregate. Complementing renewable and nuclear output, gas-fired generation is set to grow by an average of $2.6\%$ per year through 2030 – similar to its growth rate in 2019 and significantly faster than the annual average of about $1.4\%$ seen over the past five years. This growth is driven primarily by rising US electricity demand and fuel switching from oil to gas in the Middle East. Renewables, gas and nuclear together are expected to displace generation from coal, which is forecast to decline slightly and return to near its 2021 level by 2030. With coal-fired output in China expected to decline slightly, increases in India, Southeast Asia and other regions are forecast to be more than offset by declines in Europe and the Americas. Taken together, renewables are set to contribute the highest share of global electricity generation by 2030, though coal will remain the single largest fuel source for power generation. # Rapidly evolving power systems are bringing grids and flexibility to the forefront of policymaking The Age of Electricity requires a fast and efficient expansion of grids and system flexibility to securely and cost-effectively integrate a changing mix of generation, demand and storage. Variable output from solar PV and wind continues to expand quickly, with their share of global generation set to rise from $17\%$ today to $27\%$ by 2030. Meanwhile, newer sources of demand – such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and highly concentrated loads, such as data centres – are expected to grow rapidly. At the same time, more than 2500 gigawatts (GW) worth of projects – encompassing renewables, storage, and projects with large loads, such as data centres – remain stalled in grid connection queues worldwide. Since grid investment has lagged well behind investment in generation capacity, many power systems are already experiencing rising congestion-related curtailment. Meeting forecasted electricity demand through 2030 would require annual grid investment to increase by roughly $50\%$ by 2030 from today's USD 400 billion, alongside a significant scaling up of grid-related supply chains. At the same time, grids built for peak capacity often have substantial unused capacity during off-peak periods. As grids and flexibility rise up the policy agenda, making more efficient use of existing systems can help relieve congestion and accelerate integration while grid expansion efforts continue. Complementary measures, such as grid-enhancing technologies and regulatory reforms, can also unlock significant near-term capacity while grid expansions advance. IEA analysis for this report shows that these measures together could free up enough capacity to connect around 1200 GW to 1600 GW of advanced-stage projects currently stuck in queues worldwide. About 750 GW to 900 GW of projects could be enabled via more flexible, non-firm grid connection agreements. These agreements typically allow faster grid access, with some limitations, and can create extra hosting capacity before grid upgrades are completed. Another 450 GW to 700 GW could be unlocked by deploying grid-enhancing technologies such as dynamic line rating and advanced power-flow control, as well as larger upgrades like reconductoring and voltage uprating. Realising this potential would require updates to regulatory frameworks and the timely deployment of technical solutions. Utility-scale battery deployment is accelerating rapidly, becoming a significant source of short-term flexibility. While conventional power plants remain the primary source of power system flexibility, the growing fleet of large-scale batteries is playing a rising role in supporting security of supply. The strong growth is especially notable in regions with rapidly rising shares of solar PV and wind in electricity generation. Markets such as California, Germany, South Australia, Texas and the United Kingdom have all seen strong growth in utility-scale battery capacity in recent years. Battery costs continue to fall, enhancing their competitiveness, but efforts to reduce market barriers and address integration challenges can help unlock their full potential. # Global emissions from electricity generation are forecast to plateau through 2030 Global power sector emissions remained flat in 2025 and are forecast to plateau over the 2026-2030 period as renewables and nuclear account for a growing share of generation. Electricity generation remains the largest source of energy-related emissions, producing around 13 900 million tonnes of carbon dioxide $\left(\mathrm{CO}_{2}\right)$ annually. After increasing by an average of $1.4\%$ per year between 2022 and 2024, $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ emissions from electricity generation stabilised in 2025. Compared with a decade earlier, the global $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ intensity of electricity was down by $14\%$ , and it is set to decline more rapidly through 2030 as the share of low-emissions generation continues to rise. # Affordability and competitiveness take centre stage Affordability remains a key concern, with household electricity prices in many countries rising faster than incomes since 2019. While energy- and supply-related components of electricity prices have eased from their crisis peaks, they remain well above 2019 levels. Non-energy components – such as network charges, taxes and other levies – continue to account for a large, and often growing, share of household bills. In addition, electricity is also taxed more heavily than natural gas in many countries, weakening incentives for households to electrify heating, cooking or hot water use. As a result, policymakers are increasingly focusing on policy frameworks, market designs and regulation to improve affordability and encourage electrification. Ensuring prices remain affordable while still reflecting costs and incentivising demand-side flexibility is emerging as a central challenge. More flexible and efficient use of existing infrastructure can help contain future system costs and deliver greater savings for consumers. Electricity price gaps across regions persist, adding competitive pressures. Average wholesale electricity prices in 2025 rose year-on-year in several regions and countries, including in the European Union and the United States, reflecting higher natural gas prices. Meanwhile, prices fell in other countries, such as Australia and India. Competitive pressures are most acute for energy-intensive industries, with significant differences continuing to be observed across regions. # Safeguarding the security and resilience of power systems is a critical priority Recent large-scale power outages worldwide underscore the importance of electricity security for modern economies and societies. Power systems face rising risks from ageing infrastructure, extreme weather events, cyberthreats and other emerging vulnerabilities. Blackouts in Chile, the Iberian Peninsula and Mexico in 2025 had widespread impacts. Recent incidents, such as the EstLink-2 cable outage between Finland and Estonia, the Heathrow substation fire and the Berlin arson attack, exposed critical vulnerabilities. Strengthening the physical protection of critical infrastructure and deploying advanced monitoring and early-detection systems will be essential to guard against threats. As electrification increases, ensuring reliable supply depends on strong grids, resilient supply chains and diverse flexibility resources. Meeting evolving system needs also requires modernised operational frameworks, including updated grid codes, refined reserve requirements and adaptive regulatory structures. # Demand # The Age of Electricity has arrived, underpinned by strong demand growth As the Age of Electricity moves apace, demand is on a solid upward trajectory in our five-year forecast period from 2026 to 2030. Amid robust growth, the next five years will add on average $50\%$ more electricity demand per year than the annual average additions over the past decade. The brisk pace will be supported by growing industries, electric vehicles, space cooling, and data centres, among many other end uses. Electricity consumption is now projected to grow at least 2.5 times faster than overall energy demand, hastening the world's transition to an electricity-based economy. In tandem, the relationship between electricity demand and economic growth is undergoing a paradigm shift. Traditionally, electricity use has closely tracked economic expansion, excluding periods of global financial crises. However, in a marked departure from the past, electricity demand is now expected to outpace economic growth on a global scale through 2030. While emerging economies continue to be the main pillars of growth in electricity use, demand in advanced economies is now rising again after a 15-year period of stagnation. The resurgence signals a new era in which electricity is a major energy input to some of the most dynamic drivers of global economies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), data centres, technological innovations, and the "electrification of everything". As a result, both total and per capita electricity consumption will reach new record highs in many regions of the world through 2030. This chapter presents our global electricity demand forecast and a detailed overview of emerging trends in major economies, which highlight the urgent need for greater power system flexibility (see separate chapters on "Grids" and "Flexibility"). In addition, individual regions and countries are covered more in-depth in the Regional Focus chapter of our report. # Demand in advanced economies is rising after a long period of stagnation Electricity demand in advanced economies is on an upward trajectory again after a 15-year period of stagnation. Flat or declining demand in many advanced economies reflected efficiency improvements across end-use sectors and industrial restructuring. Advanced economies saw overall electricity demand relatively static in 2015-2020 and their share of global growth rising only to $10\%$ in 2020-2025. The shift to growth became apparent in 2025, when advanced economies accounted for almost $20\%$ of additional global demand, up from $17\%$ in 2024. We expect this share to remain close to $20\%$ through 2030, as electricity demand continues to grow due to a combination of increasing consumption from data centres, electric vehicles, air conditioners and heat pumps, among many other sectors. Global electricity demand growth by region, 2015-2030 United States □ Other advanced economies Southeast Asia European Union China Other emerging economies Japan & Korea India IEA. CC BY 4.0. Over the 2026-2030 outlook period, we expect electricity demand growth to gather pace across the advanced economies. Electricity consumption in the United States is set to rise by close to $2\%$ on average per year – more than twice the rate of the past decade – with data centre expansions continuing to be a major driver. The European Union is forecast to see its electricity demand grow at an average annual rate of $2.3\%$ out to 2030. However, we do not expect EU electricity demand to rise back to its 2021 level before 2028. India and Southeast Asia are emerging as major engines of overall energy demand. However, in the electricity sector to 2030, the People's Republic of China (hereafter, "China") remains the dominant source of growth, accounting for nearly $50\%$ of the global increase due to its much larger market size. Over the next five years, China alone is set to add electricity demand equivalent to the European Union's current consumption. Electricity demand growth in China is expected to moderate to an average of $4.9\%$ annually over the 2026-2030 forecast period, down from the $6.5\%$ average recorded over the previous decade. By contrast, India is expected to post an increase of $6.4\%$ and Southeast Asia at $5.3\%$ , an acceleration from the slower rates in 2025, based on expectations of continued robust economic growth and rising electrification. Year-on-year percent change in electricity demand in selected regions, 2019-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: Data for 2026-2030 are forecast values. The plots start from 2019, whereas the x-axis labels are shown only for the even years due to limited space. # Electricity consumption set to rise strongly across all sectors Global electricity demand increased year-on-year by $3\%$ in 2025, following $4.4\%$ in 2024. While intense heatwaves across many regions bolstered power use in 2024, comparably milder weather and weaker industrial and manufacturing activity in some regions tempered the overall pace in 2025. However, we expect demand growth to pick up in 2026-2030, to an average $3.6\%$ over the next five years – a significant acceleration compared to the $2.8\%$ annual rate of the past decade. This corresponds to adding on average approximately 1 100 TWh each year through 2030 globally – versus an average 700 TWh per year from 2015 to 2025. Global electricity consumption will reach 33 600 TWh in 2030, up from 28 200 TWh in 2025. Many major electricity consuming countries and regions saw weaker demand growth in 2025 versus the year earlier, largely due to a slowdown in industry and manufacturing amid uncertain trade policies, combined with milder weather patterns compared to 2024. China and India experienced moderate growth of $5.1\%$ and $1.4\%$ , respectively. Southeast Asia also saw lower growth of around $3\%$ y-o-y, down from a much higher $8.6\%$ in 2024. Electricity demand growth in the United States eased marginally to $2.1\%$ in 2025, from $2.8\%$ the previous year. In the European Union, demand rose at the more modest pace of $0.9\%$ , following a moderate recovery of $1.6\%$ in 2024. In 2025, approximately $58\%$ of the increase in global electricity demand came from China, compared to $52\%$ in 2024. Overall, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), including China, accounted for about $80\%$ of global growth in 2025, and are expected to maintain that share over the next five years. This compares with an average $95\%$ in the past decade, reflecting an increasing contribution from advanced economies. Over the forecast period, electricity demand is projected to post strong growth across all major consuming segments. The buildings sector – including residential and commercial – is expected to see the largest absolute growth, and contribute $49\%$ to additional global demand between 2025 and 2030. Higher electricity use from space cooling, data centres and heat pumps make up almost half of the growth in the buildings sector worldwide out to 2030. Industrial electricity consumption is also expected to accelerate compared to the past decade, in particular from light industries. At the same time, fuelled by the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, transportation's share of demand growth is forecast to rise to more than $10\%$ , double from the past five years. As the world's transition to an electricity-based economy is hastened, the share of electricity in total final consumption is set to increase from $21\%$ in 2025 to $24\%$ in 2030. Global electricity demand growth by sector and end-use, 2015-2030 # Electricity demand breaks with three-decade history, outpacing global economic growth A trend shift in the link between electricity demand and economic growth is taking place on a global scale, amid strong demand increases from electricity-intensive industries, air conditioning (AC), data centres and continued electrification of end-use sectors. Over the past three decades, global electricity consumption has only grown significantly faster than the world economy during periods associated with economic shocks, such as the aftermath of the 2000-2001 recession, the 2008- 2009 financial crisis or during 2020 amid the pandemic. However, 2024 marked the first normal year when electricity demand grew much more rapidly than the economy. Although this trend saw a slight reversal in 2025 amid weather impacts, electricity demand growth is projected to eclipse the pace of GDP expansion throughout our forecast period. Global electricity demand and GDP trends, 1995-2030 Growth rates of electricity demand and GDP Difference between the growth rates of demand and GDP IEA. CC BY 4.0. Note: Data for 2026-2030 are forecast values. GDP is based on the IMF World Economic Outlook. The shifting trend in electricity demand growth compared to the pace of economic growth can already be observed in a number of regions. China's electricity consumption has been growing faster than its economy since 2020. While electricity demand gains have traditionally been significantly lower than economic growth rates in the United States and the European Union, this is changing as the gap between electricity consumption and GDP begins to close. Year-on-year percent change in electricity demand and GDP in selected regions, 2002-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: Data for 2026-2030 are forecast values. 3YMA = three-year moving average. GDP is based on the IMF World Economic Outlook. # US and EU electricity demand forecast to post robust growth over 2026-2030 Electricity demand rose in both the United States and the European Union in 2024 and 2025, with continued strong growth forecast for 2026-2030. However, the sectoral composition of this growth and its underlying drivers differ between the two economies. Electricity demand in the United States increased by $2.1\%$ in 2025, following $2.8\%$ growth in 2024, when hotter summer temperatures boosted consumption. In both years, the buildings sector – residential and commercial combined – accounted for over $70\%$ of the country's demand growth. In 2025, in addition to strong economic activity and expanding data-centre loads, higher space-heating needs due to colder winter temperatures, with about $10\%$ higher heating degree days (HDDs), also supported demand. US electricity use is set to add more than 420 TWh in total over the next five years. The rapid expansion of data centres is expected to make up about $50\%$ of demand growth out to 2030. The buildings sector excluding data centres will also remain a significant contributor to growth, largely due to rising consumption from space cooling and heat pumps. Growth from the industrial sector is expected to be another major driver, supported by reshoring and other new large loads such as semiconductor and battery manufacturing plants. The transport sector is also expected to contribute to demand growth with rising numbers of EVs. Electricity demand growth by sector and end-use in the United States, 2015-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. The European Union's electricity consumption rose by an estimated $0.9\%$ in 2025, following a $1.6\%$ increase in 2024. Higher space-heating needs, due to a spike in colder winter temperatures in Q1 2025, combined with a sharp rise in AC use in the commercial and residential sectors, in the wake of record-breaking summer heatwaves, significantly boosted the region's electricity demand. The continued uptake of EVs and heat pumps were also key drivers of growth in 2025. A detailed analysis of the EU demand trends in 2025 can be found in the regional focus section of our report. EU electricity demand is forecast to increase by about 300 TWh, over the next five years. This comes after two years of declines in 2022-2023 and modest recovery since then. Electricity consumption in the EU industrial sector fell by about $6\%$ in both 2022 and 2023, driven by the production declines in the energy-intensive industries amid the energy crisis. Although the industrial sector's demand decline reversed in 2024, with a modest close to $2\%$ increase, a meaningful recovery has yet to emerge, as we estimate demand remained broadly flat in 2025. Assuming EU industrial demand recovers at a moderate pace over our outlook period, around 50 TWh of growth is forecast by 2030. The buildings sector is expected to be the main contributor to demand growth. While rising power use from data centres will provide a sizeable share, demand from cooling and heat pumps, as well as continued growth in the commercial sector, will account for most of the increase in the buildings sector. Transport follows closely behind, with EV adoption accelerating, adding more than 100 TWh to demand through 2030. Electricity demand growth by sector and end-use in the European Union, 2015-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. # Per capita electricity consumption will reach new record highs in many regions In line with rising demand, electricity consumption per capita is set to reach new highs in many regions. After growing until around 2009, electricity use per capita has been declining in many advanced economies since then, including the United States, the European Union and Japan. As demand growth accelerates over the coming years, we expect a reversal of this trend. US electricity consumption per capita will reach a new high by 2030, surpassing its previous 2005 peak of 13 700 kWh/capita. Similarly, EU electricity consumption per capita is expected to exceed its previous high of 6 410 kWh/capita observed in 2008. Japan and Korea are also expected to see gradual per capita gains. Electricity consumption per capita in China eclipsed that in the European Union in 2022 and is forecast to continue rising steadily in 2026-2030. However, per capita electricity use of households in China is still below the average for EU households. Middle East per capita consumption has been steadily expanding over the past decades, as the region's economy grows and use of AC increases. While per capita consumption was below the global average roughly three decades ago, it is now almost as high as that of the European Union and will continue to increase further over our forecast period. Electricity consumption per capita in selected countries and regions, 1990-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Note: Data for 2026-2030 are forecast values. Electricity consumption per capita in Southeast Asia and India have been rising strongly over the past decade, with both regions doubling the rate since 2009. However, Africa's progress is hindered by the slow growth of its access to energy supply. Over the past 30 years, electricity use per capita in sub-Saharan Africa has remained relatively flat, despite recent progress. Today, around 600 million people in the region still lack access to reliable electricity, significantly constraining economic development. Although reliable electricity is not the sole determinant of economic prosperity, its scarcity continues to impede progress across much of the region. # China's electricity demand is on a solid growth path through 2030 China's net electricity demand surpassed 9500 TWh in 2025, up by $5.1\%$ y-o-y. This is a slowdown compared to the previous two years, when demand grew by $6.6\%$ in 2023 and $7.0\%$ in 2024. While demand growth in buildings and transport remained strong, led mainly by increased AC use during summer heatwaves, and a growing fleet of EVs, global economic uncertainty, trade restrictions and a structural slowdown in domestic demand resulted in limited gains in China's industrial sector in 2025. Despite this, industry remains the major driver of growth in the country, which accounted for half of the total gains in electricity demand in the past five years. We expect these trends to continue over the next five years, with electricity demand set to rise by an annual average $4.9\%$ . While a slowdown compared to the $6.5\%$ average observed over the 10-year 2016-2025 period in relative terms, in absolute terms, average annual demand growth rises from 450 TWh to 520 TWh. Out to 2030, China is expected to add about 2600 TWh to electricity consumption, roughly equivalent to the current demand of the European Union. # Industry leads China's demand growth, followed by the buildings and transport sectors After rising at a moderate $3.7\%$ y-o-y in H1 2025, electricity demand growth in China recovered in H2 2025 amid warmer summer and autumn temperatures, and a mild recovery in industrial growth. Nationwide, monthly consumption surpassed 1000 TWh for the first time in July and then again in August. Demand in the industrial sector, responsible for around $60\%$ of China's total demand, grew by $3.7\%$ in 2025, 1.4 percentage points (pp) lower than the previous year. However, this was compensated for by strong demand growth in the services sector of $8.2\%$ y-o-y, the residential sector of $6.3\%$ , and road transport, where consumption at EV public charging stations grew by nearly $50\%$ . The weather impact in 2025 on electricity demand was less pronounced on an annual basis, as the total number of cooling and heating degree days remained relatively unchanged compared with 2024. Demand in the ICT and digital services subsector, which includes data centres and 5G networks, increased by $17\%$ y-o-y. Over the five-year period from 2021 to 2025, the industrial sector (including the energy industry) contributed to about $50\%$ of the increase in China's electricity demand, 4 percentage points (pp) lower than the previous five years. Most of the growth within the industry sector took place in non-heavy industries, particularly the machinery subsector, including the electricity-intensive manufacturing of solar PV modules and batteries, among others. The contribution of industry to total demand growth has been decreasing over time, with the growing prominence of the tertiary sector within the economy, in addition to light industries, increasing their share in overall activity in China. In our 2026-2030 outlook, we expect the industries' share of electricity demand growth to decrease further, by 6 pp, as industrial growth rates stabilise between $3 - 4\%$ , with electrification of processes, including heat pump deployment, and robust factory output as the main drivers. Estimated drivers of change in electricity demand in China, 2015-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: Buildings corresponds to residential and commercial sectors. Sources: IEA analysis based on data from IEA World Energy Balances (2025), National Bureau of Statistics of China (2025). The buildings sector accounted for another $41\%$ of the demand growth in the 2021-2025 period, almost equally split between the commercial and residential segments. AC penetration in offices and households accounted for close to $17\%$ of the growth within buildings, while the electrification and growing number of enduses in the residential sector also contributed significantly. The development of services such as data centres and telecommunication networks resulted in this subsector providing more than $7\%$ of the growth in buildings compared to 2020. Rising air conditioning use and expanding data centre activity are expected to make up an increasing share of buildings sector demand growth, with each contributing roughly $15\%$ through 2030. The transport sector has seen very strong electricity consumption growth during the past five years, contributing to around $6\%$ of total demand gains. Demand in this sector in 2025 was estimated to be 2.2 times the value in 2020, mainly driven by a $900\%$ higher New Energy Vehicles $(\mathsf{NEV})^{1}$ stock. New national policies incentivising switching from internal combustion engines (ICE) cars to EVs contributed to NEV sales growing by close to $30\%$ , and surpassing $45\%$ of total passenger vehicle sales in 2025. With China's NEV stock forecast to triple by 2030, we expect EV charging to contribute $10\%$ to total demand growth over the forecast period, while further development in rail transport increases this share to over $13\%$ in total for the transport sector. Growth rates of sectoral electricity demand and GDP in China, 2000-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: 3YMA = 3-year moving average. GDP growth is based on the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2025. In terms of peak electricity load in China, structural growth in demand, expanding AC stock, and continued increases in cooling degree days in July and August led to nationwide load repeatedly hitting new record highs, reaching 1508 GW on 17 July, up $3.9\%$ from the 1451 GW peak in 2024. Many Chinese provinces saw multiple record high peak loads last summer, leading to a peak of 442 GW in the East China Grid on 21 August 2025, up $5\%$ y-o-y. A higher cooling load contributed to this peak, adding over 160 GW $(37\%)$ . In Southern coastal urban areas, such as Shenzhen, AC load accounts for over $40\%$ of the cities' grid peak load in summer. More generally, in the Guangdong province, which peaked at 164 GW in 2025 (up $4.4\%$ y-o-y), load increases between 3 GW and 5 GW for every $1^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ rise in temperature above $35^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ . The electrification of the Chinese economy, defined as the share of electricity in total final consumption, has outpaced that of any other major economy, particularly over the last 15 years. While electrification shares have stagnated just above $20\%$ in the United States, the European Union, Australia and New Zealand, and between $25\%$ and $30\%$ in Japan (the most electrified major economy globally), China's electrification has doubled since 2005, surpassing $27\%$ in 2025. Share of electricity in total final consumption in select countries and regions, 1990-2025 # China's industrial demand growth is increasingly driven by electrified manufacturing outside heavy industry Heavy industry, which covers iron and steel, non-metallic minerals and the chemicals and petrochemicals industries, has seen its contribution to total electricity demand growth decrease in recent years. While its share in demand growth was between $15 - 20\%$ in the 2010s, this has fallen to well below $10\%$ in the last five years, and is expected to decline further to around $6\%$ over the forecast period, despite support measures and significant growth in the chemical and petrochemical subsector through 2030. Non-heavy industries have followed the opposite trend, reaching a more than $40\%$ share of China's demand growth between 2020 and 2025, from $33\%$ in 2010-2015. This growth has been driven by subsectors such as machinery, non-ferrous metals, transport equipment, textile and food industry. New energy products also had a very significant impact on this growth, as noted in our Electricity 2025 report. Contribution of heavy and non-heavy industries to electricity demand growth in China, 2010-2030 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Note: Values correspond to the contribution to growth in annual electricity demand within each five-year period. Part of the demand growth from industry in recent years has been driven by what China's authorities call internal involutionary competition, namely excessive, low-efficiency competition between firms that expand capacity and lower prices rather than by improving productivity and innovation. Involution competition is prominent across China's industrial sector, as illustrated by the producer price index for industrial products, which has recorded negative year-on-year growth since October 2022. The sales rate of industrial products has also trended lower in recent years, with the 2025 average at $96\%$ , indicating that domestic and external demand combined have been insufficient to absorb industrial output. Oversupply and overcapacity particularly affect new industrial sectors such as EVs, batteries and PV manufacturing. In the case of PV modules, oversupply led to module inventories in China reaching an estimated 165 GW at the end of 2024, $15\%$ higher than net capacity additions across advanced economies that year. To address the situation, China launched an anti-involution campaign in 2025, in which the key element is the guideline from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to build a national unified market, aiming at eventually resolving regional distortions by standardising and unifying economic, regulatory and technical rules. Production indices of selected products in China, 2023-2025 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Note: Values for January and February have been estimated based on the 2-month aggregate provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Source: IEA analysis based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (2025). Even before the effect of these measures is observed, some industries related to new energy products (NEPs) started to self-regulate, often through agreements between the largest manufacturers to acquire and shut down capacity from smaller manufacturers. In the solar PV industry, top polysilicon producers were in talks in August 2025 to create a USD 7 billion fund to acquire and shut down one-third of the production capacity in the country. In December 2025, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) announced the launch of a platform for polysilicon consolidation aimed at addressing involution competition in the sector through government guidance, industry collaboration and market-based mergers and acquisitions. In addition, Chinese authorities announced plans to shut down any polysilicon producers which would not meet new energy consumption thresholds within one year. Polysilicon production in China declined in 2025, compared to the previous year, for the first time since 2013, while wafer production also saw its first year-on-year contraction since 2009. Despite corrections in the short term, we expect demand from China's non-heavy industries to grow by close to 1000 TWh over the five-year 2026-2030 period, even if growth rates are expected to remain slightly lower than what was observed in 2023 and 2024. Industrial capacity utilisation rates by selected subsector, China, Q1-Q3, 2019-2025 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Source: IEA analysis based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (2025). # Peak load and demand rise across India, driven by cooling, industry and agriculture After four years of growth rates above $6\%$ , India's demand grew by a modest $1.4\%$ in 2025. Despite strong fundamentals supporting increased demand of $5.8\%$ in the first four months of the year, the early arrival of monsoon in May brought milder temperatures and increased precipitation, leading to lower use of AC and agricultural pumping. Cooling degree days were more than $7\%$ lo