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Hospitality Directions US: Updated Lodging Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an updated outlook for the U.S. lodging industry, focusing on occupancy, room rate growth, and RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) performance for 2018 and 2019. It highlights the expected trends, challenges, and factors influencing the industry's growth.

Key Trends and Projections

2018 Outlook

• Occupancy: Expected to remain stable at 66.2%, with a slight decline in the third quarter due to supply growth outpacing demand.
• Room Rate Growth: Continued growth in average daily rate (ADR) is anticipated to drive RevPAR growth.
• RevPAR Growth: Projected to increase by 3.0% in 2018, primarily due to ADR growth of 2.5%.
• Supply Growth: Expected to grow by 2.0%, with a 1.9% increase in the third quarter.
• Demand Growth: Expected to increase by 2.4%, with a 1.6% increase in demand in the third quarter.
• Group Demand: Increased by 2.5% in the third quarter, but group occupancy slightly declined by 0.1%.
• Transient Occupancy: Declined by 0.9% in the third quarter.

2019 Outlook

• Supply Growth: Slight increase to 2.1%.
• Demand Growth: Decelerates to 1.9%.
• Occupancy: Flattens or slightly declines, with an expected decrease of 0.2%.
• ADR Growth: Projected to increase by 3.0%, contributing to RevPAR growth of 2.8%.
• RevPAR Growth: Expected to grow by 2.8%, despite slightly lower occupancy.

Economic Context

• GDP Growth: Expected to remain strong in 2018 at 3.1% (Q4/Q4), but slow to 2.5% in 2019.
• Inflation: Projected to remain just above the Fed target of 2.0%, influenced by trade tensions and new tariffs on Chinese imports.
• Economic Indicators: High consumer spending, rising disposable income, employment, and household net worth support industry growth, although factors like trade tensions, fiscal stimulus waning, and increasing interest rates may slow growth by 2020.

Chain Scale Performance

Chain Scale	2018 Demand	2018 Supply	2018 Occupancy	2018 ADR	2018 RevPAR
Luxury	2.4%	1.9%	0.5%	3.7%	4.2%
Upper upscale	2.9%	2.5%	0.3%	2.0%	2.4%
Upscale	5.0%	5.5%	-0.5%	1.7%	1.1%
Upper midscale	4.6%	4.1%	0.5%	1.5%	2.0%
Midscale	2.0%	1.0%	1.1%	1.9%	3.0%
Economy	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%	2.6%	2.5%
Independent hotels	0.5%	0.1%	0.4%	3.3%	3.7%
US Total	2.4%	2.0%	0.4%	2.5%	3.0%

Key Challenges

• Supply Growth: Continued supply expansion may put downward pressure on occupancy.
• Trade Tensions: New tariffs and trade issues may increase inflation and slow economic growth.
• Fiscal Policy: Diminishing fiscal stimulus could affect demand in the long term.
• Interest Rates: Rising interest rates may impact consumer spending and business investment.

Conclusion

The U.S. lodging industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2018 and 2019, driven by ADR increases. However, the pace of growth may slow due to supply expansion, decelerating demand, and external economic pressures. The industry's performance is closely tied to broader economic indicators, including GDP, inflation, and consumer behavior.

Contact Information

For more information or to discuss the Hospitality Directions US report, please contact:

• Scott D. Berman: Principal and US Industry Leader, Hospitality & Leisure
  Phone: +1 305 375 6210

• Warren Marr: Managing Director, Hospitality & Leisure
  Phone: +1 646 313 3618

• Abhishek Jain: Director, Hospitality & Leisure
  Phone: +1 646 471 2016

All inquiries should be directed to: contact.hospitality@pwc.com

Additional Resources

• To subscribe or access further reading:
  US: pwc.com/us/hospitality
  Global: pwc.com/hospitality

• PwC Thought Leadership App: Available for iPad and iPhone users.

• PwC365: Access to PwC's thought leadership content.

Definitions

• ADR (Average Daily Rate): The average price paid per room per night.
• RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room): A measure of hotel performance, calculated by multiplying occupancy rate by ADR.
• GDP (Gross Domestic Product): Measured on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis.
• Inflation: Measured using the personal consumption expenditure price index.

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