> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # CMBI Credit Commentary Summary ## Core Content Overview This document provides a comprehensive market update and analysis from CMBI's Fixed Income Department, covering bond market movements, key company updates, and macroeconomic insights, particularly focusing on the implications of the Xi-Trump summit and the performance of various fixed income instruments. ## Key Market Movements - **Asian Investment Grade (IG) Bonds**: The long-end of the Asian IG bond market widened by 1-3 bps. - **Asian AT1s and Insurance Subs**: These instruments saw a leak of 0.3-0.5 points due to better selling. - **Specific Bond Performance**: - HYSAN 4.85 Perp lost 1.2 points. - GENTMK 8.3 Perp was 0.8 points lower. - NDPAPE 14 Perp/ACENPM 4 Perp edged 0.3-0.4 points higher. - EBIUHs remained unchanged. - **Rakuten Bonds**: - RAKUTN 8.125 Perp was 0.2 points lower, but the team maintains a "buy" recommendation due to yield pick-up and good carry. - RAKUTN 6.25 Perp is viewed with neutrality, with a preference for shorter tenors due to rate volatility expectations. - **Other Notable Movers**: - ADGREG and AREN RJ rose by 0.3-1.0 points. - YANTZE and PETMK declined by 1.5-1.4 points. - PMBROV and GRNLGR also showed positive movements. ## Key Company Updates - **Emirates NBD**: Has received all necessary approvals for the USD3bn acquisition of RBL Bank. - **RAKUTN**: 1Q26 EBITDA increased by 36% yoy due to broad-based segment growth. - **Adani Group**: Is revisiting plans to raise USD1bn via USD-denominated bonds. - **SJM Holdings**: Moody's downgraded the company by one notch to B1 from Ba3, citing high leverage. - **SoftBank**: Launched USD40bn bridge facilities for follow-on investment in OpenAI, while Arm Holdings is under FTC investigation. - **Globe Telecom (Mynt)**: Aims for a USD8bn valuation in an IPO on the Philippine market. - **Vedanta Resources**: Amended an agreement to increase the total loan commitment from USD350mn to USD600mn. ## China Policy Insights - **Xi-Trump Summit**: Marked the beginning of a stabilization window in Sino-US relations, with deliverables largely in line with market expectations. - **Stabilization Impact**: The truce is tactical, driven by near-term constraints. It should reduce China risk premium, support Hong Kong and A-share re-rating, and provide room for RMB appreciation to 6.78 by year-end. - **Trade and Geopolitics**: - A commercial agreement involving Boeing and GE Aerospace was reached, valued at US\$17–25bn. - The U.S. and China agreed on a framework for the Bilateral Board of Trade and Board of Investment, promoting continuous cooperation. - Both sides emphasized the need for stabilization due to domestic and geopolitical pressures. - **Geopolitical Focus**: - Shared concerns over Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. - Taiwan remains a structural redline for the U.S., but Trump's approach opens new negotiation possibilities. - **Technology and AI**: - No structural relaxation in U.S. export controls. - China continues to prioritize domestic substitution over negotiated access, supporting the "new quality productive forces" agenda. ## Macro News Recap - **Equity Markets**: S&P (-1.24%), Dow (-1.07%), and Nasdaq (-1.54%) declined on last Friday. - **U.S. Treasury Yields**: Increased across all maturities, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 4.09%/4.26%/4.59%/5.12%. - **Onshore Primary Issuances**: 57 credit bonds were issued last Friday with a total of RMB85bn, with a 4.1% yoy decrease in month-to-date issuance. ## Summary of Key Points - **Bond Market Trends**: - Asian IG and AT1s showed mixed performance with some widening and others tightening. - Rakuten's bond performance was positive, with a "buy" recommendation on the 8.125 Perp. - Chinese property and other bonds had mixed outcomes, with some leaking and others showing slight declines. - **China-U.S. Relations**: - The summit signals a stabilization phase, though it is seen as tactical. - Stabilization reduces China risk premium and supports equity re-rating. - Geopolitical alignment on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, while Taiwan remains a key redline. - **Technology and Trade**: - U.S. export controls remain strict, with no major relaxation. - Partial re-coupling in low-risk trade is expected, with continued tightening in high-risk sectors. - **RMB Appreciation**: - A gradual appreciation to 6.78 by year-end is anticipated based on the stabilization framework. - **Other Highlights**: - No new offshore Asian bonds were priced. - Fosun International and Saudi Aramco have significant financing and asset divestment plans. - CMBI maintains a neutral stance on certain bonds and provides detailed analysis for investment decisions. ## Important Disclosures - The report contains general market commentary and is not tailored to individual investors. - CMBI does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. - The report is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation. - There are potential conflicts of interest, as CMBI may have investment banking relationships with the issuers mentioned. ## Contact Information - **Fixed Income Department**: - Tel: 852 3657 6235 / 852 3900 0801 - Email: fis@cmbi.com.hk - **Analysts**: - Glenn Ko, CFA: (852) 3657 6235 | glennko@cmbi.com.hk - Cyrena Ng, CPA: (852) 3900 0801 | cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk - Yujing Zhang: (852) 3900 0830 | zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk