> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** 宏观经济 # 宏观经济周报 2026年第五周 # 一、中国宏观 高频：本周ICHI综合景气指数小幅回落，结束此前连续扩张态势，但整体仍处于接近100的稳定区间，显示在前几周的扩张趋势后，经济运行进入动能整固阶段。从结构上看，经济景气呈现出一定的分项分化。具体来看，消费景气指数回落至收缩区间，反映节后消费边际降温、季节性高点开始回落。但回落幅度有限，整体仍运行在相对稳健区间，居民消费韧性尚存。投资景气指数同步回落，企业投资在前期扩张后进入观望与消化阶段，景气水平处于100左右，投资端对内需的支撑作用仍在延续。出口景气指数仍位于收缩区间，反映全球需求节奏偏缓、外贸环境不确定性仍存，但边际波动有限，压力总体可控。相比之下，生产景气指数小幅回升至扩张区间，出现企稳迹象，显示随着假期因素逐步消退，工业生产活动开始恢复常态运行，对短期经济形成一定支撑。综合来看，ICHI综合景气指数虽小幅回落，但整体走势仍然稳健，更多反映年初经济动能的阶段性调整。消费与投资在此前扩张后进入节奏放缓与消化阶段，生产端率先企稳，经济运行仍具韧性。 2025年，中国全年GDP总值达到约140.19万亿元人民币，同比增长 $5.0\%$ 。在外部环境高度复杂、不确定性明显上升的背景下，中国经济展现出坚实的宏观定力并呈现出结构性的亮点。一是经济增长步伐稳健。2025年经济增速不仅顺利完成设定的全年增长目标，也实现了稳增长与调结构的有机统一，体现出政策调控的精准和经济体系的韧性。二是结构换挡继续推进。全年装备制造业和高技术制造业增加值分别同比增长 $9.2\%$ 和 $9.4\%$ ，明显高于制造业整体水平，新动能增长强劲。三是发展质量多维提升。创新实力稳步提升，绿色转型有序推进，绿电、绿能、绿色经济蓬勃发展，对外开放不断扩大，制度型开放持续深化。四是宏观破局迎难而上。面对全球地缘政治扰动频发以及国际金融市场波动加剧等外部挑战，中国宏观经济政策表现出良好的前瞻性与协调性。五是信心预期渐次增强。企业层面，经营预期稳步改善。居民层面，服务消费和新型消费活跃度提升。随着企业和居民的预期逐步趋稳，内生增长动能在更高质量和更可持续的方向上持续积聚。 2026年1月26日 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.com 周烨 (852) 2683 3232 dorothy.zhou@icbci.com 图1：ICHI指数反映当下经济运行的冷热程度 资料来源：Wind、iFinD 以及工银国际计算 # 二、全球宏观 1月22日，美国经济分析局公布数据显示，美国11月PCE物价指数同比上涨 $2.8\%$ （预期为 $2.8\%$ ），环比上涨 $0.2\%$ （预期为 $0.2\%$ ）；剔除食品和能源价格的核心PCE物价指数同比上涨 $2.8\%$ （预期为 $2.8\%$ ），环比上涨 $0.2\%$ （预期为 $0.2\%$ ）。个人收入和消费支出方面，11月个人收入环比上涨 $0.3\%$ （预期为 $0.4\%$ ），个人消费支出环比上涨 $0.5\%$ （预期为 $0.5\%$ ）。整体而言，通胀水平和消费支出基本符合预期。 1月22日，美国经济分析局公布数据显示，美国三季度实际GDP年化季环比终值为 $4.4\%$ ，修正前为 $4.3\%$ ，市场预期为 $4.3\%$ ，季度实际GDP年化季环比终值为 $3.8\%$ 。三季度核心个人消费支出物价指数终值为 $2.9\%$ ，符合预期。三季度实际GDP的增长反映了消费支出、出口、政府支出和投资的增长。实际GDP较最初估计值上调0.1个百分点，主要原因是出口和投资数据上调，但部分被消费支出数据的下调所抵消。与第二季度相比，第三季度实际GDP增速加快，反映出投资、出口和政府支出的回升，以及消费支出的加速增长。 # 三、市场聚焦 1月22日，日本最新公布的贸易数据表明，12月出口同比增长 $5.1\%$ ，这是连续第四个月实现增长，不过增速不及市场预期，同时对美国的出口出现明显下滑，同比下降约 $11.1\%$ ，主要集中在汽车及电子设备等关键品类，这给整体增长前景带来一定压力。日元贬值在一定程度上支持了出口扩张，但美国市场需求疲弱成为拖累因素。相比之下，日本对亚洲市场的出口表现较为亮眼。 1月22日，欧央行发布的12月会议纪要显示，决策委员会认为当前的货币政策在支持经济增长和控制通胀之间取得了平衡，因此维持利率不变，并强调未来 仍将保持政策的高度灵活性，根据经济和通胀前景的变化随时调整方向。纪要特别提到欧元区经济表现出较强韧性、GDP增长略高于预期，但服务业通胀和工资上涨的持续性超过预期，成为关注重点。 # 重要披露 # 工银国际的股票评级 超越基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）超越相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 中性：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数在-20%至20%以内 落后基准：预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）落后相应市场基准指数 $20\%$ 以上 暂无评级：分析师目前对于预期未来12个月内股票总回报（包括股息）对比相应市场基准指数的变化幅度无法给出确信的判断 # 工银国际是中国工商银行的全资子公司 # 如有需要，可向工银国际索取进一步资料。 本报告所载的意见纯粹是分析员对有关证券或发行人的个人看法；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的特别建议或所表达的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。 # 工银国际证券有限公司 地址：香港中环花园道3号中国工商银行大厦37楼电话：(852)26833888传真：(852)26833900 # 一般披露 主要负责撰写本研究报告全部或部份内容的分析师在此声明：(i)本研究报告的任何观点均精准地反映了上述(每位)分析师个人对目标证券和发行人的看法；及(ii)该分析师所得报酬的任何组成部分无论是在过去、现在及将来均不会直接或间接地与研究报告所表述的具体观点相联系。 本研究报告所载资料由工银国际证券有限公司编制和发表。 此研究报告并非针对或意图被居于或位于某些司法管辖范围之任何人士或市民或实体作派发或使用，而我们在该等司法管辖范围并无相关注册或牌照，且在该等司法管辖范围内分发、发布、提供或使用将会违反当地适用的法律或条例或会导致工银国际证券有限公司、集团成员及/或其联属方(统称“工银国际”或“我们”)需在该司法管辖范围内作出注册或领照之要求。仅就本文件而言，此研究报告不应被视为是一种邀约或邀请购入或出售任何文中引述之证券。 本研究报告 (i) 供阁下作个人参考之用；(ii) 若要约发行在任何司法管辖区为违法，本研究报告不应诠释为出售证券的要约或招揽购买证券的要约；(iii) 本研究报告的资料可能基于来自我们认为可靠的第三方来源但并未获工银国际独立核实。本研究报告仅提供一般参考资料，并非为提供个人投资意见，也没有考虑个别人士的具体投资目的、财务状况和特定需要。在准备本研究报告时，工银国际并无进行任何确保本研究报告中提及的证券适合任一特定投资者的步骤。阁下应自行决定涉及本研究报告提及的证券的所有交易，并因应阁下的财务情况、投资经验及投资目的，衡量每一交易是否适合阁下。本研究报告可能含有来自第三方的资料，包括信贷评级机构的评级；除非事先获第三方的书面许可，不得以任何形式分发该第三方材料。第三方材料供应者不保证任何资料(包括评级)的准确性、完整性、时间性或是否可以使用，工银国际和第三方材料供应者无论什么原因也不会就误差或遗漏（无论是不是因为疏忽）承担责任，同时也不会就因使用该材料而产生的结果承担责任。第三方材料供应者并无作出任何明确或隐含的保证，包括但不限于某一特殊目的或用途的可销性或适用性保证。第三方材料供应者毋须就使用这些材料(包括评级)负上任何直接、间接、附带、惩戒性、补偿性、惩罚性、特殊或相应损害赔偿、讼费、开支、法律费用或损失(包括失去的收入或利润及机会成本)的法律责任。信贷评级为意见陈述，并非事实陈述，或购买、持有或销售证券的推荐意见，也并非就证券的适当性或证券投资的适当的引导，不应作为第三方材料供应者的投资意见般倚赖。 本研究报告所载数据可能描述过往表现或根据过往表现作出的模拟情况，这些过往表现或模拟情况并非未来表现的可靠指标。若数据含有未来表现的指针，该预测不可作为未来表现的可靠指标。此外，模拟情况乃基于模型及简化的假设推断，当中可能有过份简化的情况，也不反映未来的回报的分派。本研究报告所述的事实以及当中表达的观点、估计、预测和推测以本研究报告的日期为准，可以在没有通知的情况下有所更改。工银国际并无就本研究报告所载数据发表声明或作出明确或隐含的保证，除非另外获工银国际同意外，阁下亦不应倚赖本研究报告所载数据。在没有和适用于工银国际且不时修订、更改或替代的证券及期货事务监察委员会持牌人或注册人操守准则的义务不一致的情况下，工银国际概不就因使用或倚赖本研究报告或其材料而产生或引致的直接、间接或相应损失或损害赔偿承担法律责任。本研究报告并非为提供个人专业意见(包括但不限于会计、法律或税务意见或投资的推荐意见)，阁下也不应作为专业意见般倚赖；不可取代阁下的判断。除非另外获工银国际同意外，工银国际非阁下的顾问，也不就财务或其它后果承担受信责任或法律责任。投资者须考虑本研究报告的资料或观点是否适合他的特定情况，若适用，应寻求专业意见，包括税务意见、投资限制意见或任何法律或监管意见。 本报告不应被视为阐明或建议与投资决定相关的所有直接或间接风险。工银国际出版很多不同种类的研究产品，其中包括基本面分析、计量分析和短期买卖点子；一类研究产品所含的观点有别于其它种类的研究产品所含的观点，不论是因为不同时间性、方法或其它因素。 准备本研究报告的分析师的报酬由研究部门的管理层及工银国际的高级管理层全权决定。分析师的报酬并不取决于工银国际的企业融资业务的收入，但可能和工银国际企业融资业务的整体总收入联系，而当中包含企业融资、销售及交易业务。 若工银国际以外的金融机构或实体(包括但不限于任何信息提供商)发送本研究报告，则由该金融机构或实体为此发送行为承担全部责任。该发送本研究报告的金融机构的客户应联系该机构如果他们决定进行相关证券的交易。该发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体的客户应直接联系该机构或实体以要求获悉本研究报告提及的证券更详细的信息。本研究报告不构成工银国际向发送本研究报告的金融机构或实体之客户(其并非工银国际的客户)提供的投资意见，工银国际及其各高级职员、董事和员工亦不为前述金融机构或实体之客户因使用本研究报告或其载明的内容产生的直接或间接损失承担任何责任。 工银国际透过其合规政策及程序（包括但不限于利益冲突、中国墙和保密政策）以及中国墙的维护及雇员培训管理有关其研究活动及研究报告发布的冲突。 本研究报告仅发送给阁下供参考，在没有工银国际的事先书面同意的情况下，不得以任何方式翻印或分发本研究报告的任何部份给其它人士。 收到本研究报告即等同阁下知悉并同意以上条款。 工银国际证券有限公司2026版权所有。保留一切权利。 # UK This communication is sent on behalf of ICBC International Securities Limited, being a subsidiary of ICBC International Holdings Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Hong Kong (collectively with other subsidiaries of ICBC International Holdings Limited, the "ICBCI Group"). 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