2025-06-10-花旗集团-全球天然气与电力洞察_夏季天气可能加剧TTF与JKM市场基本面的紧张程度_并限制Henry_Hub的上行空间_34页_2mb

Global Gas and Power Insights Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of global gas and power markets for the summer of 2025, focusing on the impacts of weather forecasts, geopolitical factors, and supply-demand dynamics on key benchmarks such as TTF, JKM, and Henry Hub.

Main Points

• Weather Outlook:

  • US: Milder than last year in the eastern part, potentially hotter in the western part.
  • Europe: Expected to have a warmer summer.
  • Asia: Weather is inconclusive, with Japan and Korea forecasting hotter-than-normal conditions, while eastern China may be milder.

• Market Impacts:

  • TTF (European Gas Benchmark): Prices are expected to rise due to low projected storage levels in October 2025 and potential supply disruptions from US LNG exports.
  • JKM (Asian LNG Benchmark): Prices may remain moderate, influenced by weak LNG demand in Asia due to strong renewables and resilient coal production in China.
  • Henry Hub (US Gas Benchmark): Prices are expected to have limited upside due to geopolitical uncertainty regarding US ethane exports to China and potentially normal summer weather.

• Teleconnection Analysis:

  • The analysis of teleconnections using analog years (2003, 2021, 2022) supports the forecast of warmer weather in the western US and Europe, and milder conditions in eastern China and the US.
  • The current sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in May 2025 closely resembles the combined years of 2003, 2021, and 2022, indicating no El Nino conditions.

• Hurricane Season Outlook:

  • Both NOAA and Colorado State University predict an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.
  • Increased storm activity could disrupt US Gulf Coast LNG exports, leading to higher TTF prices in Europe.
  • The season is expected to be close to the 30-year average, with no El Nino conditions to produce vertical wind shear.

• LNG and Coal Impacts:

  • Increased rainfall in Indonesia and India could lead to coal production disruptions and moderate fossil fuel demand for cooling.
  • Asian demand for LNG is expected to be more moderate than previously anticipated, which could narrow the JKM-TTF spread.

Key Information

• TTF Prices: Currently trading at €35.6/MWh, close to the lower end of the forecast range (€30s to €40s). Expected to rise due to storage constraints and potential supply disruptions.
• JKM Prices: Currently at $12.4/MMBtu, near support levels of $11-12/MMBtu. Expected to remain stable or slightly increase due to reduced LNG demand in Asia.
• Henry Hub Prices: Neutral outlook at ~$3.7/MMBtu for 3Q25 due to uncertainty in US ethane export policies and normal weather expectations.
• Inventory Levels:
  • European gas inventory is projected to reach ~77% full in October 2025 without Russian supply.
  • US gas inventory is expected to be tighter in 2026 than in 2025.

Summary of Weather Impacts

Region	Weather Impact	Market Impact
US	Milder in the east, hotter in the west	Potential disruption of LNG exports in the Gulf Coast, limiting Henry Hub upside
Europe	Warmer summer	Increased demand for gas, leading to higher TTF prices and narrowing JKM-TTF spread
Asia	Inconclusive, but Japan and Korea expect hotter weather	Moderate LNG demand, potentially stabilizing JKM prices

Summary of Key Forecasts

• NOAA and ECMWF: Show similar temperature trends, with warmer conditions in the western US and Europe.
• KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration): Forecasts hotter than normal summer weather, especially in July and August.
• JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency): Expect hotter than normal weather in June to August, though not as extreme as 2024.

Summary of Market Analysis

• TTF: Likely to show more upside, especially if European weather is hotter.
• JKM: May remain stable due to weak demand in Asia and moderate weather.
• Henry Hub: Limited upside due to geopolitical uncertainty and normal weather outlook.

Key Figures and Data

• Figure 1: Global surface temperature outlook from July to August (NOAA via WMO)
• Figure 2: Global precipitation outlook from July to September (NOAA via WMO)
• Figure 3: SST anomaly in May 2025 compared to 2003, 2021, and 2022
• Figure 4: SST anomaly in May for 2003, 2021, and 2022
• Figure 5: Temperature anomaly from June to August based on analog analysis
• Figure 6: Similar analysis for July and August
• Figure 7: JMA forecasts for hotter than normal weather in Japan
• Figure 8: KMA forecasts for hotter than normal weather in Korea
• Figure 9: Current drought situation in the US
• Figure 10: Atlantic hurricane season forecasts (NOAA and CSU)
• Figure 11: Historical prices of front-month futures for Asian JKM LNG, European TTF natural gas, and US Henry Hub
• Figure 12: Historical prices of front-month futures for competitive fuels
• Figure 13: Forward curves for competitive fuels in Europe (EU carbon cost adjusted)
• Figure 14: Forward curves for competitive fuels in Asia (without carbon cost adjustment)
• Figure 15: LNG floating storage costs vs. TTF calendar spreads
• Figure 16: LNG floating storage costs vs. JKM calendar spreads
• Figure 17: LNG on water for at least 20 days (number of vessels)
• Figure 18: LNG on water for at least 20 days (total volume of LNG)
• Figure 19: European natural gas inventory
• Figure 20: Norwegian daily natural gas production
• Figure 21: Daily imports of natural gas through pipelines
• Figure 22: Daily LNG imports
• Figure 23: Daily pipeline imports (net)
• Figure 24: Daily Russian pipeline imports
• Figure 25: Daily LNG imports from Algeria and Libya
• Figure 26: Daily consumption and demand for European gas
• Figure 27: Daily power demand for gas
• Figure 28: Daily non-power demand for gas
• Figure 29: Daily gas consumption by industrials
• Figure 30: Daily LDZ gas consumption
• Figure 31: Daily power load
• Figure 32: Daily renewables (solar, wind, hydro) power generation
• Figure 33: Daily wind power generation
• Figure 34: Daily solar power generation
• Figure 35: Daily nuclear power generation
• Figure 36: Daily coal power generation
• Figure 37: Daily natural gas power generation
• Figure 38: Daily fuel oil power generation
• Figure 39: European natural gas supply-demand balance (2025)
• Figure 40: European natural gas supply-demand balance (2026)

Conclusion

The report highlights the potential for increased TTF prices in Europe due to low storage levels and possible supply disruptions, while JKM prices are expected to remain stable or show moderate increases. The US Henry Hub is expected to have limited upside due to geopolitical uncertainties and normal weather. Weather forecasts play a critical role in shaping these outcomes, with a focus on regional variations and their impact on LNG and coal markets.