2023-12-07-联合国环境规划署-保持冷静_121页_13mb

Global Cooling Watch 2023: Summary

Urgent Need: Cooling demand is rapidly growing due to rising temperatures, urbanization, and incomes, posing a climate challenge. Global cooling capacity could triple by 2050, increasing emissions to 6.1 billion tons of CO₂e, equivalent to 10% of global projected 2050 emissions.

Key Challenges & Findings

• Projected Growth: Global cooling equipment capacity will increase significantly, with higher electricity consumption and refrigerant emissions if no actions are taken.
• Emissions Impact: Cooling is a major source of GHG emissions, contributing to climate change. Business-as-usual (BAU) pathways lead to a doubling of cooling-related emissions by 2050.

Recommendations for Near-Zero Emissions Pathway

1. Policy Actions

• Passive Cooling & Efficiency: Implement building energy codes with passive cooling strategies (e.g., insulation, shading) to reduce cooling loads by 24% by 2050.
• Energy Efficiency: Adopt Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) and energy labels to triple the average efficiency of cooling equipment by 2050.
• Refrigerant Management: Accelerate the phase-down of high-GWP refrigerants under the Kigali Amendment and improve life-cycle refrigerant management.

2. Technology Innovation

• Efficient Equipment: Use variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems, district cooling, and super-efficient appliances.
• Low-GWP Refrigerants: Transition to alternatives (e.g., natural refrigerants) to reduce direct emissions.

3. Grid Decarbonization

• Rapidly decarbonize electricity grids to minimize indirect emissions, especially in developing countries.

4. Integrated Approaches

• Develop National Cooling Action Plans (NCAPs) to coordinate policies across government, industry, and finance.

Modeling Results

• Emission Reductions: Near-zero emissions pathways (combining policy, efficiency, and refrigerant measures) can reduce 2050 emissions by 60–96% compared to BAU.
• Cumulative Savings: Avoid cumulative GHG emissions of up to 90 billion tons (equivalent to ~5°C warming reduction by 2100).

Financing & Implementation

• Scale-Up Finance: Blended finance, public procurement, and innovative business models (e.g., cooling-as-a-service) are needed to overcome upfront costs.
• Equity & Access: Ensure sustainable cooling reaches vulnerable populations through targeted policies and affordability measures.

Conclusions

A comprehensive shift to sustainable cooling is critical to meet rising demand while limiting emissions. This requires synergistic policies, technological innovation, financial tools, and global leadership.