战略与国际研究中心-ROK_19页_407kb

ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2017 Summary

Core Content

The ROK-U.S. Strategic Forum 2017 was a panel discussion held on Tuesday, September 5, 2017, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. The event focused on the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance in the context of the new administrations of President Trump (U.S.) and President Moon Jae-in (ROK). The panel aimed to identify key opportunities and challenges for the alliance, particularly in light of North Korea's nuclear advancements, trilateral cooperation, and military and security coordination.

Main Panelists and Their Roles

• Victor Cha – Moderator and Korea Chair at CSIS, also a professor at Georgetown University.
• Yoon Young-kwan – Former Foreign Minister of South Korea, now a professor at Seoul National University.
• Abraham Denmark – Director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia.
• Michael Pillsbury – Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Chinese Strategy at Hudson Institute, known for his work on China and U.S. strategy.
• Choi Kang – Vice President of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, former senior adviser on the National Security Council during the Kim Dae-jung administration.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges

1. North Korea's Nuclear Threat

   • The alliance must address the growing nuclear and missile capabilities of North Korea, which may challenge the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence.
   • There is concern that North Korea might become more reckless, potentially targeting islands like Baengnyeong or Yeonpyeong, and that such actions could escalate into a broader conflict.
   • Denuclearization remains a central goal, but the approach must be carefully calibrated to avoid perceptions of regime change or preventive war, which could provoke North Korea further.

2. Conventional Deterrence

   • North Korea's confidence in its military capabilities may lead to more aggressive actions, such as shelling of islands or other incidents.
   • Both the U.S. and South Korea need to enhance conventional deterrence and ensure they are prepared to respond to such threats.

3. Reassurance and Coordination

   • There is a need for clear and consistent reassurance to South Korea that the U.S. remains committed to its defense.
   • Policy coordination between the two countries on North Korea is essential but requires a long-term vision and joint planning.

4. GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement)

   • GSOMIA is a major obstacle to trilateral cooperation among South Korea, Japan, and the U.S., as it restricts the sharing of military information.
   • The agreement is a source of tension, and its implications for military intelligence coordination are a concern.

Opportunities

1. Strengthening Trilateral Cooperation

   • There is potential for enhanced military exercises and greater involvement of Japan in South Korea's defense.
   • A framework for trilateral security cooperation is needed, especially in the context of China's rising influence and North Korea's aggression.

2. Military and Defense Reform

   • The 2020 Defense Reform in South Korea aims to enhance its military capabilities and transfer wartime operational control.
   • The U.S. can support this by technology transfer and cost reductions on defense systems like the F-35.
   • There is a need for open-mindedness regarding nuclear energy cooperation and uranium enrichment, which could be a point of discussion in future negotiations.

3. Policy Coordination on North Korea

   • A joint strategy involving both the U.S. and South Korea is necessary to address North Korea's nuclear program effectively.
   • The U.S. should explain the capabilities of THAAD and clarify that it is not aimed at China, but rather at North Korean threats.
   • A public policy dialogue on the strategic implications of the U.S.-South Korea alliance could help align perceptions and reduce misunderstandings.

4. Trade and Security Integration

   • Trade and security issues are increasingly interconnected, especially in the context of Chinese economic and military competition.
   • A joint committee and dispute resolution mechanisms should be used to coordinate trade and security discussions, ensuring that both countries can address Chinese competitiveness in a unified manner.

Key Recommendations

• U.S. President Trump should visit South Korea to signal a strong alliance commitment.
• Enhance trilateral cooperation with Japan, particularly in military exercises and intelligence sharing.
• Clarify the purpose of THAAD to reassure China and prevent misperceptions.
• Strengthen the joint committee mechanism for trade and security coordination.
• Address the issue of GSOMIA to improve military intelligence cooperation.
• Promote a comprehensive approach to North Korea, including political, economic, and military dimensions.
• Reinforce the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence and military presence in the region to prevent misperceptions of withdrawal.

Conclusion

The panel emphasized that the U.S.-South Korea alliance is at a critical juncture, shaped by the new leadership and North Korea's nuclear ambitions. While there are significant challenges, particularly in military coordination and trilateral cooperation, there are also opportunities for deeper integration and strategic alignment. The key to success lies in clear communication, policy coordination, and mutual reassurance between the two nations.