> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # FRESH # PERSPECTIVES Emerging Issues and Opportunities for Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. # FRESH # PERSPECTIVES Emerging Issues and Opportunities for Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa # Contents # Acknowledgments v # Abbreviations and Acronyms vi # Executive Summary ES1 # 1 The Context of Water Security and Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa Region 1 # 2 The Role of Technology and Innovation in Transforming Desalination 13 2.1. Large-Scale Desalination: Overall Cost Reductions and the Shift from Thermal to Membrane-Based Technologies 14 2.2. Desalination is Increasingly Applied for Small-Scale, Decentralized Solutions 21 2.3. Considerations for Designing a Desalination Project 23 # 3 The Energy Nexus and Development of Desalination 25 3.1.Decoupling Desalination from Carbon Emissions for Climate Change Mitigation 25 3.2. Challenges and Opportunities for Renewable Energy Integration into Desalination 28 3.3. Synergies between Green Hydrogen and Desalination 34 # 4 Ensuring Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Desalination 37 4.1. Environmental Impacts of Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa 38 4.2. Managing and Mitigating Environmental and Social Impacts of Desalination 41 4.3. Socioeconomic Impacts and Community Engagement in Desalination 50 # 5 The Importance of Governance in the Mainstreaming of Desalination 55 5.1. Ensuring Institutional and Managerial Frameworks are Fit for Purpose 55 5.2. Embedding Desalination within Integrated Water Resources Management 59 5.3. Governance Considerations for PPPs in Desalination 62 # 6 Strategies for Expanding and Sustaining Desalination 67 6.1. Ensuring Financial Sustainability of the Water Sector 67 6.2. Mobilizing Finance for Desalination Projects 72 6.3. Ensuring Social Equity and Safeguarding Against the Cost of Water 77 # 7 Emerging Issues and Opportunities for Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa 83 # References 91 # FIGURES Figure ES.1 • Water Availability in Relation to GDP, by Region and Income Class 1 Figure ES.2 • Online Desalination Capacity and Share of Desalination in the Water Supply Mix, by Income Class 2 Figure ES.3 · Impact of Various Technological and Financial Innovations to Optimize Desalination Costs - Example from the Arab Republic of Egypt 5 Figure 1.1 • Water Availability in Relation to GDP, by Region and Income Class 2 Figure 1.2 • Increase in Water Demand and Demand-Supply Gap in the Middle East and North Africa by 2050, by Income Class Figure B1.1.1 - Percentage of Respondents Indicating that Water Pollution Is a Very Serious or Serious Problem. 3 Figure B1.2.1 • Cumulative Expansion in Online Desalination Capacity in the Middle East and North Africa and the Rest of the World, Total (Top) and Disaggregated by Technology (Bottom) 5 Figure B1.2.2 $\cdot$ Desalinated Water Use, by Sector 6 Figure B1.2.3 • Number of Online and In-Construction Desalination Plants in the Middle East and North Africa, by Size 6 Figure 1.3 • Online Desalination Capacity and Share of Desalination in the Water Supply Mix, by Income Class Figure 2.1 $\cdot$ Trends in Desalinated Water Prices over Time, by Technology 13 Figure 2.2 · Economies of Scale for Various Desalination Processes 15 Figure 2.3 • Evolution of the Number and Average Capacity of Large New Desalination Plants in the Middle East and North Africa Over Time 16 Figure 2.4 • Average Capacity of Desalination Plants Awarded between 2010-2025 in the Middle East and North Africa, by Income Class Figure 3.1 - Comparison of the Global Weighted Average Levelized Cost of Electricity Between Several Renewable Energy Sources and Fossil Fuels in 2010 and 2023.26 Figure B4.1.1 • Six-Step Process for Conducting Cumulative Impact Assessments 49 Figure 5.1 • Examples of Institutional Models for Water Service Delivery 58 Figure B5.3.1 • Water Production - Malta 61 Figure B6.1.1 • Demand-Side and Supply-Side Measures to Manage Water Demand in 2050, 69 Figure B6.1.2 $\cdot$ Impact of Various Financial Structuring Measures on Desalination Cost 70 Figure B6.6.1 $\cdot$ Conceptual Framework for the Development of Desalination in Aden 79 Figure B6.7.1 • Stylized Integrated Water Resources Management, with Gradual Transition from Public to Private Financing 80 Figure 7.1 • Consecutive Development Transition Pathways from LICs to MICs to HICs 87 # LIST OF BOXES Box 1.1 • Poor Water Quality Accentuates Scarcity and Diminishes Returns on Investments 3 Box 1.2 • Key Features of Desalination in Water Sectors Worldwide and in the Middle East and North Africa 5 Box 2.1 Research and Development (R&D) is Driving Innovations that Improve Efficiency and Reduce the Cost of Desalination Box 2.2 • Shifting Desalination Technologies in Saudi Arabia 19 Box 2.3 · Emerging Technologies for Desalination 20 Box 2.4 • Small-Scale Desalination Solutions for Conflict-Affected Areas 22 Box 3.1 • Establishing Emission Caps on Desalination: The Case of Jordan's National Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance Project (AAWDCP) 27 Box 3.2 • Pumped Storage in Saudi Arabia 30 Box 3.3 $\cdot$ Desalination as a Grid Stabilizer 31 Box 3.4 • Policy, Legal, and Regulatory Reforms in the Moroccan Energy Sector for Enabling Renewable Energy-Based Desalination 33 Box 4.1 • Optimizing the Environmental and Social (E&S) Governance of Desalination Projects 43 Box 4.2 • Promoting Sustainable Cooperative Development of Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa 49 Box 5.1 • Supporting the Restoration and Expansion of Desalination Capacity in Libya 56 Box 5.2 • Integrated Water Management in Malta 60 Box 5.3 • Optimizing Decision-Making Through the Simulation and Portfolio Optimization Tool (SPOT) 62 Box 5.4 • Leveraging Transparent Procurement for Cost-Effective Desalination 63 Box 6.1 • Strategies for Improving the Financially Sustainability of Desalination in the Arab Republic of Egypt 68 Box 6.2 • Improving Utility Performance and Reducing Network Losses to Stabilize the Bill of Expanded Desalination 71 Box 6.3 • User Payment Agreements to Enable Desalination Projects in Morocco 74 Box 6.4 • Programmatic Approaches to Derising and Scaling Water Investments 75 Box 6.5 • Creating Bankable Desalination Projects by Tapping into Carbon Markets 76 Box 6.6 • Desalination Development Frameworks in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) Settings 78 Box 6.7 • Integrated Water Resources Management Programs Can Catalyze Private Sector Participation and Investment 80 Box 7.1 • The Desalination Partnership Program Between Saudi Arabia and the World Bank 90 # LIST OF TABLES Table 7.1 • Key Issues and Opportunities for Desalination in HICs, MICs, and LICs in the Middle East and North Africa 88 # LIST OF MAPS Map 1.1 • Location, Capacity, and Technology of Major Desalination Plants in the Middle East and North Africa in 2025 8 Map 3.1 • Solar and Wind Potential in the Middle East and North Africa 29 # Acknowledgments This paper was prepared by a team led by Floris Dalemans (Water Specialist), Marcus Wishart (Lead Water Resources Management Specialist), and Rajesh Balasubramanian (Senior Investment Officer), and including Jason Zhengrong Lu (Global Lead Water and Finance), Mohamed Zakaria Kamh (Senior Energy Specialist), Noreddine Citroen (Senior Energy Specialist), Olfa Khelifi (Senior Environmental Specialist), Sven Schlumpberger (Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), Waleed Tayseer A. Alhaddad (Energy Specialist), and Yousra Mohamed Ossama Mostafa Assaker (Senior Energy Specialist). The team wishes to thank the report's peer reviewers for their valuable and insightful comments during the review process: Corrado Sommariva (Chief Executive Officer of Sustainable Water and Power Consultants), James Peter Moore (Regional Environment and Social Standards Adviser), Layali H. Abdeen (Senior Business Development Officer), Naoll Cyrille Mary (Senior Operations Officer), Nicola Ruggero Saporiti (Senior Investment Officer), Yitbarek Tessema (Global Lead Water Supply and Sanitation), and Zael Sanz Uriarte (Senior Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist). Additional comments from Saroj Kumar Jha (Global Director Water General Practice) were also highly valued. The work benefitted from insights and analyses in the World Bank knowledge series, "The Governance and Economics of Desalination and Reuse," led by Zael Sanz Uriarte (Senior Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), with Jihoon Lee (Water Specialist), Sven Schlumpberger (Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), Lara Loske-Garcia (Junior Professional Officer), and Hila Cohen Mizrav (ET Consultant). The team would also like to thank Hugo Birch from Global Water Intelligence for data analysis advice, as well as Shannon K. McCarthy from the International Desalination and Reuse Association (IDRA) for thematical advice. While the team wishes to acknowledge all the various contributions and guidance with gratitude, the opinions expressed herein and any errors are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be attributed to the individuals or institutions acknowledged. The report was prepared with the support and guidance of the World Bank's management for the Middle East and North Africa, including: Ousmane Dione (Regional Vice President, Middle East and North Africa), Boutheina Guermazi (Director, Strategy and Operations), Meskerem Brhane (Regional Director for the Planet), Michael Haney (Practice Manager Water), and Husam Beides (Practice Manager Energy). The team wishes to thank Isabel Martin Carrera, Solange Villamil, and Tracey-Ann Wisdom from the World Bank's Global Corporate Solutions - Translation and Interpretation (GCSTI) unit for their project coordination and editing support, respectively, as well as Lauren Kaley Johnson from the Design unit. The team also gratefully acknowledges the support of Marlee Jennean Beers and the World Bank's Cartography Unit for their assistance in developing the maps included in this report. Thanks go to Nadege Mertus and Sharon D.C. Faulkner for supporting the team administratively throughout the process. This work would not have been possible without the generous financial support from the Global Water Security and Sanitation Partnership (GWSP). The GWSP is a multidonor trust fund administered by the World Bank's Water Global Practice and supported by Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Austria's Federal Ministry of Finance, the Gates Foundation, Denmark's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Netherlands' Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Spain's Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, and the United States Agency for International Development. # Abbreviations and Acronyms AAWDCP Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance Project AI Artificial Intelligence AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank BANOBRAS National Bank of Public Works and Services BCM Billion Cubic Meters BOO Build-Own-Operate BOT Build-Operate-Transfer CAPEX Capital Expenditure CCDR Country Climate and Development Report CDI Capacitive Deionization CIA Cumulative Impact Assessment CSP Concentrated Solar Power DBO Design-Build-Operate DBOOT Design-Build-Own-Operate-Transfer DH Dirham (Morocco) DZD Dinar (Algeria) E&S Environmental and Social ED Electrodialysis EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EHS Environmental, Health, and Safety EPC Engineering, Procurement, and Construction ESF Environmental and Social Framework ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan ESP Environmental and Social Policy ESS Environmental and Social Standard FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of AQUASTAT the United Nations' Global Information System on Water and Agriculture FO Forward Osmosis FONADIN National Infrastructure Fund GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GWI Global Water Intelligence GWSP Global Water Security and Sanitation Partnership HAM Hybrid Annuity Model HEPCA Hurghada Environmental Protection and Conservation Association HICs High-Income Countries IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency IWP Independent Water Producer KPI Key Performance Indicator kWh Kilowatt Hour LE Egyptian Pound LICs Low-Income Countries LWSC Local Water and Sanitation Corporation m3 Cubic Meter MCM Million Cubic Meters MD Membrane Distillation MED Multieffect Distillation MICs Middle-Income Countries MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MMBTU Million British Thermal Units MSF Multistage Flash Distillation MW Megawatt NIS New Israeli Shekel O&M Operation and Maintenance OPEX Operating Expenses P2P Private-to-Private PHS Pumped Hydro Storage PPA Power Purchase Agreement PPM Parts Per Million PPP Public-Private Partnership PROMAGUA Water Operator Modernization Program PV Photovoltaic R&D Research and Development RAS Reimbursable Advisory Services RFP Request for Proposals RO Reverse Osmosis ROI Returns on Investment SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition SCALE Scaling Climate Action by Lowering Emissions SOE State-Owned Enterprise SPOT Simulation and Portfolio Optimization Tool SRI Saudi Arabian Riyal SRM Regional Multiservice Company SWA Saudi Water Authority SWCC Saline Water Conversion Corporation SWRO Seawater Reverse Osmosis TWh Terawatt Hour UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UV Ultraviolet VEC Valued Environmental and Social Component WBG World Bank Group WHO World Health Organization ZLD Zero Liquid Discharge # Executive Summary The Middle East and North Africa region faces some of the world's most acute water shortages. The region accounts for over half of the countries experiencing absolute water scarcity, distributed across the income level spectrum (figure ES.1). This crisis is intensified by overuse of groundwater, declining water quality, and rising demand driven by population growth and economic development. Climate change exacerbates these challenges, causing unpredictable weather patterns and reducing freshwater availability. Additionally, more than 60 percent of the region's water resources are transboundary (shared by two or more countries), which introduces another layer of risk and vulnerability to national water security considerations. As a result, many countries are increasingly struggling to meet municipal, industrial, and agricultural water needs from surface water and groundwater resources. FIGURE ES.1 - Water Availability in Relation to GDP, by Region and Income Class Source: Original for this publication, based on data from FAO AQUASTAT Dissemination System and World Bank Open Data. Note: Middle East and North Africa countries in blue circles. Kuwait omitted. ARE = United Arab Emirates; BHR = Bahrain; DJI = Djibouti; DZA = Algeria; EGY = Egypt, Arab Rep.; IRN = Iran, Islamic Rep.; IRQ = Iraq; ISR = Israel; JOR = Jordan; LBN = Lebanon; LBY = Libya; MAR = Morocco; MLT = Malta; OMN = Oman; PSE = West Bank & Gaza; QAT = Qatar; SAU = Saudi Arabia; TUN = Tunisia. Desalination is a well-established response among the region's high-income countries (HICs) to the challenges of water scarcity and is emerging as a vital adaptation strategy among middle- and low-income countries (MICs and LICs, respectively). Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are increasingly investing in nonconventional water resources—desalination and wastewater reuse—to secure reliable water supplies. HICs in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have pioneered large-scale investment in desalination infrastructure, driving technological innovation and setting global benchmarks for plant capacity, efficiency, and cost-effectiveness. Such technological innovations have accelerated the adoption of new desalination methods and driven down the production costs, creating new opportunities for MICs and LICs to pursue similar strategies in securing reliable water supplies (figure ES.2). FIGURE ES.2 • Online Desalination Capacity and Share of Desalination in the Water Supply Mix, by Income Class Source: Original for this publication, based on data from GWI DesalData Forecast Desalination 2025 (bars),<sup>1</sup> FAO AQUASTAT Dissemination System (line),<sup>2</sup> and World Bank Open Data (income classification).<sup>3</sup> Desalination alone will not solve the region's water challenges, and it requires a holistic approach that balances technological, environmental, governance, and financial considerations. The emerging opportunities around desalination need to be carefully integrated within a balanced portfolio of supply-side solutions and circular economy frameworks that create sustainable, closed-loop systems. Moreover, the expansion of desalination as a supply-side solution should be integrated into broader water-sector strategies, including robust demand management, improved water use efficiency, and strengthened water sector governance, to ensure long-term sustainability. The relatively limited fiscal space and competing budget demands in many MICs and LICs also advocates for careful consideration of investments in desalination against other water management strategies. Balancing the various considerations and leveraging new technologies from across the region can help countries in the Middle East and North Africa to strengthen their resilience against water scarcity and climate variability. The objective of this paper is to provide guidance to policy makers and practitioners on effectively integrating desalination into water supply systems. It does so through an examination of the emerging issues and opportunities associated with the evolving role of desalination as a key adaptation strategy for water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa. Five key issues and opportunities are identified as critical for shaping the future of desalination in the region. These are particularly important as desalination emerges as an increasingly viable option to improve water security among MICs and LICs. The paper aims to provide an integrated analysis of how technological innovation, energy efficiency and renewable energy, environmental and social (E&S) management, robust governance, and financial sustainability can collectively shape the future of desalination in the region. By highlighting the need for holistic, context-sensitive approaches and the potential for collaboration across HICs, MICs, and LICs, the paper seeks to inform policy and investment decisions that will strengthen water security and resilience against climate and development pressures. The five key issues and opportunities are as follows: 1. Technological innovation is driving the transformation of desalination, making it an increasingly accessible and cost-effective solution for a wide range of water supply needs. The Middle East and North Africa region has been in the vanguard of advances in desalination technology and operational models that have steadily reduced production costs, lowered energy requirements, and improved water quality. As a result, desalination is now more accessible both at large scale (such as in urban centers) and in small, decentralized settings, including remote or conflict-affected areas. It is becoming a cost-effective solution for a growing number of municipal, industrial, and even high-value agricultural applications. Reverse osmosis (RO) has emerged as the preferred method, offering greater energy efficiency and lower overall costs compared to older thermal technologies. New approaches, such as forward osmosis (FO), membrane distillation (MD), and electrochemical desalination, promise further improvements in cost and sustainability. To ensure long-term viability and avoid technological lock-in, successful implementation of desalination projects in the region requires careful consideration of technology selection, local environmental conditions, energy sources, and brine disposal methods. 2. Energy efficiency and the integration of renewable energy are increasingly central to both the cost-effectiveness of desalination and climate change mitigation in the Middle East and North Africa region. Energy use remains a major factor in cost and environmental impact, with desalination projected to account for over 10 percent of the region's total energy consumption by 2040. If the region aspires to decouple its desalination capacity expansion from a corresponding increase in the carbon footprint, it will be important to reshape the energy-water nexus toward resilient and green growth. Transitioning from energy-intensive thermal methods to membrane-based technologies will help reduce both carbon emissions and operational costs, alongside continued improvements in energy efficiency. Similarly, integrating renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, has the potential to decouple desalination from dependency on fossil fuels, though challenges related to intermittency, transmission, and regulatory frameworks must be addressed. There is also significant potential to leverage the region's ambitious green hydrogen initiatives—which aim to account for 21 percent of global production by 2050, providing opportunities to leverage synergies, cross-subsidize desalination projects, and enhance plant viability and capacity utilization. Ultimately, optimizing the relationship between desalination and the power sector may require a comprehensive national desalination strategy, integrated energy-water system approaches, and potential incentives such as emission caps. 3. Effective E&S management is essential to harness the benefits of desalination while protecting ecosystems and communities. Desalination can reduce pressure on overused water resources but can also pose potential risks to marine environments, nearby populations, and the ecosystem services they rely on. Robust environmental risk management and innovative engineering solutions— guided by regulations at multiple jurisdictional levels and by lender requirements—are critical to minimize, manage, and mitigate any potential impacts. Requirements need to be tailored to the different conditions between the Atlantic, Gulf, and Mediterranean waters. Caution is needed when developing desalination in shallow coastal water bodies, particularly those with poor circulation, which may be particularly vulnerable to cumulative impacts from brine discharge, chemical releases, and thermal pollution. In the absence of scientific consensus on the potential for cumulative impacts, a precautionary approach that combines best practices with rigorous impact assessments is warranted. From a socioeconomic perspective, desalination can generate employment, catalyze economic development, and deliver public health benefits for cities, industries, and farmers. These benefits are maximized when communities are engaged meaningfully throughout project design and implementation, and when transparent tariff-setting and targeted support mechanisms ensure affordable access to water for all, especially vulnerable households. 4. **Strong sector governance** and integrated water resources management are the backbone of successful and sustainable desalination, particularly at the scale envisioned in the Middle East and North Africa. Legal frameworks should clearly define water rights and responsibilities for seawater abstraction, allocation of desalinated water, and brine effluent management. To accommodate the growing role of desalination, countries in the region may need to adapt institutional structures and management models, ensure effective regulatory provisions and agencies across the water-energy nexus, and reinforce operators in line with stakeholder capacity and local contexts. Desalination also introduces a range of potentially new actors and stakeholders into the water sector, shifting some of the roles and responsibilities that have traditionally been the purview of national and catchment-based water resource managers. Clear frameworks for roles and responsibilities, risk allocation, competitive procurement, and effective contract management are particularly essential for harnessing private sector expertise. Most importantly, countries should not treat desalination as a standalone solution but integrate it into broader water-sector strategies, alongside circular economy principles, wastewater reuse, demand management, loss reduction, efficiency improvements, and utility performance strengthening. Such an integrated water resources management approach can maximize returns on investment and safeguard long-term financial sustainability. 5. Financial sustainability is a prerequisite for expanding desalination without compromising the equity or fiscal stability of the water sector. Scaling desalination is costly, particularly for the region's MICs and LICs that have a number of competing fiscal demands and development priorities. Desalination programs must therefore be strategically integrated into broader water sector planning to ensure affordability and long-term sustainability. Due consideration to nonrevenue water, demand management, and operational efficiency can help optimize the required desalination volume and scale. Ensuring financial viability also requires cost-reflective yet socially sensitive water pricing. Given that water tariffs across the region are among the lowest in the world, gradual and predictable reforms are required, paired with well-targeted subsidies and social protection measures to protect vulnerable households. At the project level, sustainability depends on optimizing life cycle costs through both technological and financial innovation (see figure ES.3). Projects should leverage advances in energy efficiency and renewable energy integration, while carefully selecting sites and right-sizing plants. Delivery models and financial structures should be chosen to maximize value for money within the prevailing context. Across the Middle East and North Africa, desalination project delivery demonstrates a wide spectrum of private sector participation, from fully private-financed public-private partnerships (PPPs) in the GCC to more traditional public procurement in MICs and LICs. PPP successes and failures from the region highlight that mobilizing private finance depends on bankable projects, bankable utilities, and strong sector fundamentals. MICs and LICs can use scarce public finance strategically to strengthen the enabling environment (through predictable tariffs and subsidies, transparent regulations and procurement, and efficient and creditworthy utilities) and to enhance project bankability (through innovative financing solutions, including viability gap financing, guarantees, blended finance, climate finance, and, where feasible, cross-subsidization linked to green hydrogen), thereby reducing risk and attracting diverse private investors. In many instances, this mix of innovative solutions to pool offtake risks and provide confidence to private sector developers can make desalination a more cost-effective option than small-scale, private water supply solutions. FIGURE ES.3 $\cdot$ Impact of Various Technological and Financial Innovations to Optimize Desalination Costs - Example from the Arab Republic of Egypt Source: World Bank 2024b (unpublished). Note: The modeled cost is based on a 100,000 cubic meters per day plant. The regional minimum and maximum values were calculated for a set of 18 plants in the Middle East and North Africa region with capacity surpassing 100,000 cubic meters per day that were awarded between 2019 and 2023. MENA = Middle East and North Africa; PPA = power purchase agreement. Finding the right balance among these five issues and opportunities requires differentiated and tailored pathways that reflect the specific contexts of countries across the Middle East and North Africa. HICs in the region, with established desalination portfolios, will continue to drive technological innovation, setting benchmarks for efficiency, cost effectiveness, and emission reductions, with positive spillovers regionally and globally. MICs in the region will need to focus on integrating new technologies and sustainable financing models, while adapting governance of the water sector to support ambitious plans for the expansion of desalination. LICs across the region, many of which are affected by fragility and conflict, will continue to develop small-scale, decentralized solutions to build resilience and deliver affordable, reliable lifeline water services, while looking to establish the enabling conditions for larger-scale solutions to water security. Across the region, collaboration and shared learning can accelerate progress toward accessible, sustainable, and cost-effective desalination, helping countries to tackle common challenges and ensure sustainable solutions for safeguarding water security. # The Context of Water Security and Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa Region The Middle East and North Africa is the world's most water-stressed region. It is home to more than half of the 29 countries below the $500\mathrm{m}^3$ per capita threshold for absolute water scarcity, with 10 of the 19 countries in the region having less than $200\mathrm{m}^3$ of total internal renewable water resources per capita (figure 1.1). The challenges of water scarcity in the region are exacerbated by diminishing returns on new surface water storage, overexploitation of groundwater, increasing demand due to population and economic growth, migration and the influx of refugees, and the growing uncertainty brought about by climate change. In response, many countries see investments in nonconventional water resources as critical for improving water security and building resilience, and the adoption of desalination technologies has emerged as a promising adaptation strategy to secure sustainable freshwater resources. While this has largely been the purview of the HICs in the GCC, an increasing number of MICs and LICs in the region are also recognizing the development of desalination as a crucial long-term solution to the constraints imposed by water scarcity. The region's limited natural endowment of water is exacerbated by economic growth, demographic trends, lack of demand-management measures, and deteriorating water quality. Despite significant investments in surface- and groundwater-related infrastructure, the water demand-supply gap has increased to unprecedented levels, $^{4}$ with about half of the countries in the region already withdrawing freshwater at unsustainable rates. $^{5}$ Rapid population growth and continued socioeconomic development are simultaneously posing upward pressures on water demand. $^{6}$ Physical challenges are compounded by a lack of corresponding investments in the institutional and policy measures required for managing water demand, such as data and information, efficient water allocation and distribution, improving institutional coordination, and sustainable financing models for operations and management (de Waal et al. 2023). Water scarcity is further exacerbated by poor water quality, with growing concerns among an increasing aspirational population (box 1.1). As a result, projections show an increase in water demand between 20 to 50 percent for all Middle East and North Africa countries by 2050 and a fivefold increase in the region's total water shortage (figure 1.2), with an additional 25 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water needed to meet regional demand (Borgomeo et al. 2018; World Bank 2012). Combined with diminishing returns on new freshwater resources and challenges in keeping withdrawals within sustainable limits, many countries will face increasing gaps between demand and natural sources of supply, notably among the GCC countries, but also in Israel and Jordan as well as the economy of West Bank and Gaza (figure 1.2). FIGURE 1.1 • Water Availability in Relation to GDP, by Region and Income Class Source: Original for this publication, based on data from FAO AQUASTAT Dissemination System and World Bank Open Data. Note: Middle East and North Africa countries in blue circles. Kuwait omitted. ARE = United Arab Emirates; BHR = Bahrain; DJI = Djibouti; DZA = Algeria; EGY = Egypt, Arab Rep.; IRN = Iran, Islamic Rep.; IRQ = Iraq; ISR = Israel; JOR = Jordan; LBN = Lebanon; LBY = Libya; MAR = Morocco; MLT = Malta; OMN = Oman; PSE = West Bank & Gaza; QAT = Qatar; SAU = Saudi Arabia; TUN = Tunisia. FIGURE 1.2 • Increase in Water Demand and Demand-Supply Gap in the Middle East and North Africa by 2050, by Income Class Source: Original for this publication, based on data from World Bank 2012. # BOX 1.1 • Poor Water Quality Accentuates Scarcity and Diminishes Returns on Investments Water pollution exacerbates the challenges of water scarcity by reducing the availability of clean, usable water, increasing health risks, and imposing additional economic burdens. Pollution from industrial, agricultural, and domestic sources can contaminate water bodies, making them unsuitable for consumption, agriculture, or industrial use. This reduces the overall availability of clean water and intensifies water scarcity. Along with physical and commercial water losses, it may also severely compromise the returns on desalination investments. Citizens across the 11 countries surveyed as part of the fifth wave of the Arab Barometer survey overwhelmingly cite significant concerns with water pollution (figure B1.1.1). In Iraq and the Arab Republic of Egypt, nearly all respondents cite water pollution as a serious or very serious problem (97 percent and 96 percent, respectively), roughly nine in ten say the same in Tunisia (94 percent), Libya (93 percent), Sudan (91 percent), the Republic of Yemen (90 percent), Lebanon (90 percent), and Algeria (89 percent). Rates of concern remain high in West Bank and Gaza (88 percent), Jordan (85 percent), and Morocco (83 percent). Even in Lebanon, Libya, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza, which have faced substantial waste management emergencies, concerns regarding water pollution are a close second to alarms about inadequate trash management (Raz 2020). Notably, citizens in every country surveyed are concerned with water pollution at higher rates than they are with climate change or air quality. This gap across equally vital and inextricably linked concerns underscores both the primacy of desire for clean water and public misconceptions about the interdependence of broader environmental issues (Raz 2020). FIGURE B1.1.1 • Percentage of Respondents Indicating that Water Pollution Is a Very Serious or Serious Problem Source: Arab Barometer V. Note: Weighted estimates. Climate change is adding uncertainty to water scarcity and exacerbating the existing challenges of water security. The Middle East and North Africa is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world. Climate change is driving higher temperatures and evaporation, greater variability in precipitation patterns, lower water availability, and an increasing intensity and frequency of floods and droughts (IPCC 2023). For instance, simulations demonstrate that a temperature increase of $2^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$ would reduce freshwater availability in the region by 15 to 45 percent (World Bank 2022). As climate change intensifies the scarcity, variability, and uncertainty of water supplies, the socioeconomic consequences are likely to be significant. For example, losses under hot climate scenarios are projected to be as much as 6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually by mid-century and about 4 percent under warm scenarios. With 60 percent of surface water resources in the region being transboundary, and with many countries sharing at least one aquifer, increasing competition over shared water resources, exacerbated by climate change, could drive a vicious cycle that further intensifies social tensions. Within this context, the region's ability to adapt to these changes will be crucial in mitigating the impacts of climate change on water security and ensuring sustainable development. Implementation of priority adaptation investments and policies are estimated to limit abovementioned GDP losses to about 3 percent and 1 percent, respectively. Desalination has emerged as a promising adaptation strategy to improve the security and sustainability of freshwater resources as water scarcity intensifies across the Middle East and North Africa. Desalination is the process of removing salt and other minerals from saline water (seawater, brackish water, or other) to produce freshwater used for municipal, industrial, and even high-value agricultural uses. It allows access to a constant and controlled supply of freshwater independent of natural rainfall, variable surface water resources, and depleted groundwater sources. By reducing the reliance for water supply on climate-dependent freshwater availability and considering decreasing opportunities to expand dam capacity and exploit groundwater in the region, desalination has increasingly become a viable option to help close the water demand-supply gap in the region, while increasing the reliability and predictability of water supplies. This is demonstrated by the sustained expansion of desalination capacity in the region, with an average annual growth rate of 8 percent since 1980.[10] By 2025, the region accounted for 46 percent of the global online desalination capacity, thereby substantially surpassing East Asia and the Pacific (23 percent), North America (11 percent), and Western Europe (7 percent).[11] Looking ahead, the Middle East and North Africa region will remain the engine for propelling growth in the global desalination market, accounting for 63 percent of anticipated newly contracted capacity between 2026 and 2030,[12] and a continued shift from thermal to membrane-based technologies (see box 1.2).[13] # BOX 1.2 • Key Features of Desalination in Water Sectors Worldwide and in the Middle East and North Africa Desalination has rapidly evolved from a high-end, niche solution to a cornerstone of water security in many countries, with the Middle East and North Africa region at the forefront of this transformation. While desalination technology emerged in the 1960s, production capacity has expanded exponentially since the 2000s, reflecting its growing role in national water supply strategies, notably for municipal and industrial uses (figure B1.2.1; figure B1.2.2). Among the two main desalination technologies, thermal capacity was initially predominant but has remained almost stationary since 2010, whereas the recent global expansion of desalination has been driven almost entirely by membrane-based technologies—predominantly reverse osmosis or RO (figure B1.2.1). The Middle East and North Africa region has led global desalination efforts, accounting for almost half of the world's online capacity in 2025, with over 5,000 plants of varying sizes. The region continues to drive growth in the sector, with an expected annual online capacity expansion of 1.5-3.5 million cubic meters (MCM) per day between 2026 and 2030 (figure B1.2.1). While the region remains the primary user of thermal desalination, it has also witnessed a major shift toward membrane-based technology, a trend expected to continue as thermal plants are gradually phased out due to higher capital expenditure (CAPEX) and energy intensity. Another defining characteristic of new desalination projects in the region is the trend toward larger-scale plants to harness economies of scale (figure B1.2.3). The region accounts for the 30 largest desalination plants online or in construction worldwide in 2025. For these reasons, large seawater desalination projects are the primary focus of this paper. A more detailed discussion of desalination technologies and plant sizes is provided in section 2.1. FIGURE B1.2.1 • Cumulative Expansion in Online Desalination Capacity in the Middle East and North Africa and the Rest of the World, Total (Top) and Disaggregated by Technology (Bottom) Source: Original for this publication based on data from GWI DesalData Forecast Desalination 2025 (forthcoming, consulted on October 1, 2025). FIGURE B1.2.2 $\cdot$ Desalinated Water Use, by Sector Source: Original for this publication based on data from GWI DesalData 2025. FIGURE B1.2.3 • Number of Online and In-Construction Desalination Plants in the Middle East and North Africa, by Size Source: Original for this publication based on data from GWI DesalData 2025 Desalination has historically been the privilege of those HICs that could afford the relatively expensive technologies. Water stress, coupled with the financial resources required to respond to the challenges it poses, has played a key role in the adoption of desalination across the region. Since desalination has long been a comparatively expensive water supply option, high-income GCC countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—all having less than 100 $\mathrm{m}^3$ of total internal renewable water resources per capita $^{14}$ —have been early adopters, establishing substantial desalination capacity by the 1970s and 1980s. $^{15}$ To date, these HICs remain among the global forerunners in terms of desalination capacity and share of desalination in the water supply mix (figure 1.3). $^{16}$ Several other countries, such as Algeria, the Arab Republic of Egypt, and Israel 14 FAO AQUASTAT Dissemination System, 2020 data (https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/). 15 GWI DesalData 2025. Consulted on April 11, 2025. 16 The five countries with the highest online desalination capacity in 2025 are Saudi Arabia (17.3 MCM per day), China (14.0 MCM per day), United States of America (11.0 MCM per day), United Arab Emirates (9.1 MCM per day), and Spain (5.0 MCM per day). Source: GWI DesalData Forecast Desalination 2025 (forthcoming, consulted on October 1, 2025). followed, driven by unpredictable water availability from conventional water sources and increasing scarcity driven by recurrent droughts. These countries have built out their desalination infrastructure since the 1980s, to the point where today's online capacity is comparable to that of several GCC countries. However, the share in the water supply mix remains marginal for Algeria and Egypt, given their much larger total water withdrawals (figure 1.3). Other MICs with high water scarcity, such as Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia, are increasingly looking toward desalination to augment capacity and bridge the gap between demand and supply (map 1.1). Finally, desalination capacity remains limited in countries with comparatively higher water availability (like Lebanon) and LICs, particularly those affected by fragility and conflict (such as the Republic of Yemen and the Syrian Arab Republic). FIGURE 1.3 • Online Desalination Capacity and Share of Desalination in the Water Supply Mix, by Income Class Source: Original for this publication, based on data from GWI DesalData Forecast Desalination 2025 (bars), $^{17}$ FAO AQUASTAT Dissemination System (line), $^{18}$ and World Bank Open Data (income classification). $^{19}$ MAP 1.1 • Location, Capacity, and Technology of Major Desalination Plants in the Middle East and North Africa in 2025 Source: Original for this publication, based on GWI 2025.20 Note: According to GWI DesalData 2025, over 5,100 desalination plants are online in 2025 in the Middle East and North Africa, among which 332 are MED-based (8 percent of capacity), 214 are MSF-based (27 percent of capacity), and 4,474 are RO-based (63 percent of capacity). Among over 5,100 plants, 236 have a production capacity of at least $40,000\mathrm{m}^3$ per day and are displayed on the map. These represent 74 percent of total online capacity. IWP = independent water producer; MED = multieffect distillation; MSF = multistage flash distillation; SWCC = Saline Water Conversion Corporation; SWRO = Seawater Reverse Osmosis; RO = reverse osmosis. 20 See https://www.desaldata.com/. Consulted on April 11, 2025. Strategies for safeguarding and securing water among countries in the Middle East and North Africa increasingly rely on the development of nonconventional water resources, such as desalination and wastewater reuse. While data on prospective desalination investments are limited, an evaluation of national development plans and projects under preparation and construction indicates these investments will amount to several tens of billions of dollars across the region over the next decade. The desalination capacity across the GCC is expected to grow by 75 percent between 2020 and 2030 (Jagerskog and Barghouti 2022) to keep up with the demand-supply gap (figure 1.2). MICs and LICs have also formulated ambitious plans for developing desalination, encouraged by the continued decline in development costs. For example, PPP desalination projects in Jordan and Morocco each have a capacity of $822,000\mathrm{m}^3$ per day, making them the world's largest non-GCC desalination projects.[21] Libya and Tunisia have also planned a significant expansion in desalination capacity by 2030, to 2 million cubic meters (MCM) per day and $630,000\mathrm{m}^3$ per day, respectively.[22] These investments are being planned in conjunction with circular economy approaches to ensure the collection, treatment, and reuse of this "new" water. For example, Egypt quadrupled its wastewater reuse capacity between 2020 and 2025 through t