2025-06-03-Jefferies-维拉斯泰姆（VSTM）_ASCO25_G12Di中国1期疗效看起来良好且治疗窗集中_9页_604kb

Equity Research Summary: Verastem Inc (VSTM)

Overview:
Jefferies Equity Research recommends "Buy" for Verastem Inc (VSTM), with a price target of $19.00 (up 216% from $6.02). The analysis highlights the G12D inhibitor drug candidate, noting its compelling clinical data and strategic value in targeted oncology.

Key Clinical Data:

• Efficacy in Phase 1 China Study: The G12D inhibitor demonstrated a 52% objective response rate (ORR) in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and a 42% ORR in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), observed at specific dosing regimens.
• Safety Profile: Grade 3 gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity occurred in 31% of patients, and the therapeutic window is still being evaluated. Unlike the China study, the US Phase 1/2 trial will avoid patient fasting, potentially providing clearer data on the drug's behavior with food.
• US Study Design: Initiated at 400mg once daily (QD), based on data from GenFleet Therapeutics, differing from the 600mg QD used in China. The trial includes studies of the drug plus EGFR inhibitor cetuximab in G12D-mutated colorectal cancer, supported by preclinical models.

Investment Narrative:

• The drug's high tumor response rates and Verastem's combo therapy as the only approved treatment for low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSOC) offer significant scarcity value.
• VSTM is a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on RAS/MAPK pathway inhibitors.
• Valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model assuming a 10% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), 1% terminal growth rate, and 48M shares outstanding.

Risks and Comparison:

• Risks include clinical trial uncertainties, regulatory hurdles, competition, and manufacturing challenges.
• The analysis compares VSTM's G12D data with competitor RVMD's drug, noting differences in sample sizes and trial phases but cautioning against direct risk/benefit comparisons pending further data.

Pipeline and Future Plans:

• Additional pipeline includes avutometinib and defactinib, with a pivotal Phase 3 trial planned for 2026.
• A broader combination trial (avutometinib + defactinib + gemcitabine + nab-paclitaxel) showed 83.3% ORR in first-line PDAC.

** Analyst Certification:**
Kelly Shi and colleagues certify that the views reflect personal analysis and are independent.

Disclaimer:
This report contains forward-looking statements and involves risks. Investment decisions should be based on individual circumstances.