2018年-世界发展银行全球_Growth_Safety_Nets_and_Poverty___Assessing_Progress_in_Ethiopia_from_1996_to_2011_29页_971kb

Summary of "Growth, Safety Nets and Poverty: Assessing Progress in Ethiopia from 1996 to 2011"

Core Content

This working paper analyzes the drivers of poverty reduction in Ethiopia from 1996 to 2011, focusing on the role of economic growth and public goods provision. It evaluates the relative effectiveness of growth in different sectors—agriculture, manufacturing, and services—in reducing poverty, while also examining the impact of safety nets and improved access to markets and services.

Main Findings

• Agricultural Growth as a Key Poverty Reducer:

  • Agricultural output growth had the strongest impact on poverty reduction, particularly after 2005, with an average annual reduction of 2.2% in poverty.
  • Prior to 2005, the effect was smaller, at 0.1% per year.
  • This growth was most effective in areas close to urban centers with populations of 50,000 or more.
  • Good weather and high global food prices were critical for agricultural growth to translate into poverty reduction.

• Manufacturing Growth in Urban Areas:

  • Manufacturing growth played a significant role in poverty reduction in urban Ethiopia between 2000 and 2011.
  • For every 1% increase in manufacturing output, poverty fell by 0.37%.

• Services Sector:

  • Growth in the services sector had no direct effect on poverty reduction.
  • However, the paper notes that the services sector may have been underestimated due to the difficulty in measuring its output.

• Role of Safety Nets:

  • The Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) contributed to poverty reduction through redistribution.
  • It was particularly effective in the most food-insecure regions, helping households acquire and protect assets.
  • The impact of PSNP was not robust across all specifications, indicating the need for further research.

• Public Goods and Infrastructure:

  • Public investments in infrastructure, such as roads and access to education and health services, were crucial in enabling agricultural growth and reducing poverty.
  • Improved market access was essential for agricultural growth to have a poverty-reducing effect, especially in proximity to urban centers.

• Weather and Agricultural Productivity:

  • Weather shocks were used as an instrument to identify the causal effect of agricultural growth on poverty.
  • The paper highlights that agricultural growth driven by favorable weather conditions benefits all households, whereas growth from intensification or commercialization may benefit wealthier households more.

• Policy Context:

  • Ethiopia implemented the Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy, which emphasized productivity gains in smallholder cereal farming.
  • The strategy included investments in extension services, cooperatives, and infrastructure to support agricultural growth.

Key Data and Methodology

• Data Sources:

  • Poverty Estimates: Based on the Household Income and Consumption Expenditure Survey (HICES) and small area estimation methods.
  • Agricultural Output: Derived from the Agricultural Sample Survey (AgSS), including data on landholding, area cultivated, yield, and use of inputs like fertilizer and improved seeds.
  • Manufacturing Output: Estimated using a census of large and medium-sized manufacturing establishments.
  • Services Output: Estimated by combining HICES data on employment in trade and distributive services with national value-added per worker.
  • Public Goods: Measured through access to schools, health services, and road infrastructure using data from the Welfare Monitoring Surveys (WMS).
  • Safety Nets: Administered data on the number of beneficiaries of the PSNP per zone.

• Weather Data:

  • The LEAP system provided crop loss estimates based on rainfall and agronomic models, used to instrument agricultural growth and assess its causal impact on poverty.

• Methodology:

  • The paper uses a panel data approach, analyzing trends across 50 zones over 15 years.
  • It controls for other factors and employs instrumental variable techniques to isolate the effect of agricultural growth on poverty reduction.

Conclusion

The study concludes that while agricultural growth was the primary driver of poverty reduction in Ethiopia, it was complemented by public investments in infrastructure and services, as well as favorable weather and high global food prices. Safety nets and access to markets also played a role, particularly in urban areas. The findings suggest that a balanced approach combining agricultural development with non-agricultural growth and effective safety net programs is essential for sustained poverty reduction in low-income countries.