2015年-OPEC公报_OB122015_80页_20mb

OPEC Bulletin 12/15 Summary

Core Content

The 168th OPEC Conference took place in Vienna on December 4, 2015, marking a significant moment as Indonesia rejoined OPEC after a seven-year absence. This brings the number of OPEC members back to 13, the last time this occurred was in 2007 when Angola joined and Ecuador rejoined after a suspension.

Key Events and Developments

• Indonesia's Return: Indonesia's re-entry into OPEC was a notable event. The country had previously joined in 1962 but suspended its membership in 2008 due to declining oil exports. Its return was welcomed with a simple ceremony, highlighting the Organization's commitment to maintaining its presence in the region.

• Leadership Changes:

  • Dr. Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria's Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, was re-elected as the President of the OPEC Conference for 2016.
  • Ali I Naimi, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, was elected as Alternate President for 2016.
  • Dr. Mohammed Bin Saleh Al Sada, Qatar's Minister of Energy and Industry, was elected as the President of the Conference for 2016.
  • Eng Mohamed Hamel, Algerian Governor for OPEC, was elected as Chairman of the Board of Governors for 2016.
  • Estevao Pedro, Angolan Governor for OPEC, was elected as Alternate Chairman for the same period.

• OPEC Membership and Aims: OPEC is an intergovernmental organization established in 1960, with the aim of coordinating petroleum policies to ensure stable income for producers, efficient supply for consumers, and fair returns for investors.

• OPEC's Call for Stability: OPEC leaders, including Kachikwu and El-Badri, emphasized the need for cooperation with non-OPEC producers to stabilize the oil market. They highlighted that OPEC alone cannot solve the current market challenges, as it accounts for only 35-40% of global production, with the remaining 60-65% coming from non-OPEC countries.

• Market Outlook:

  • OPEC noted a 2m b/d drop in non-OPEC production.
  • The global oil price had dropped by 60%, impacting economies worldwide.
  • The OPEC Reference Basket fell from around $60/barrel in June to over $41/barrel in November, reflecting market oversupply.
  • OPEC projected global economic growth at 3.1% in 2015 and 3.4% in 2016, with demand expected to rise by 1.3m b/d in 2016.

• Indonesia's Strategic Role:

  • Indonesia has now become an Associate Member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), enhancing its role as a bridge between producers and consumers.
  • The country's return is seen as a boost to OPEC's efforts in addressing market challenges and promoting stability.

Main Views and Statements

• Kachikwu's Remarks:

  • Stressed the importance of collaboration with non-OPEC producers to stabilize the market.
  • Noted that OPEC's production ceiling of 30m b/d was not a strict figure and that current production levels were retained.
  • Emphasized that OPEC cannot single-handedly stabilize the market and that all stakeholders must contribute.
  • Highlighted the need for negotiations and joint efforts with non-OPEC producers.

• El-Badri's Comments:

  • Acknowledged the 60% drop in oil prices and the economic impact on member countries.
  • Stated that OPEC would review the impact of Iran's re-entry into the market once sanctions are lifted.
  • Called for transparent and inclusive negotiations in climate change discussions.

Conclusion

The return of Indonesia to OPEC is a significant step towards reinforcing the Organization's global standing and enhancing its ability to manage the oil market. With the ongoing challenges of low oil prices and market volatility, OPEC is actively seeking cooperation with non-OPEC producers to achieve a more stable and balanced market. The organization remains committed to its core objectives and is working closely with other stakeholders, including consumers and investors, to ensure a sustainable and orderly development of the oil industry.