20220301-招银国际-China_Financials_Weekly_Manageable_impacts_from_Russia-Ukraine_Crisis_24页_3mb
报告摘要
China Financials Weekly Summary
Core Content
This report provides an analysis of the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine Crisis on China's financial sector, focusing on banking and insurance, and outlines valuation metrics for key companies.
Main Points
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Limited Impact from Russia-Ukraine Crisis:
The Russia-Ukraine Crisis is expected to have limited direct impacts on Chinese banks and insurers. Most loans issued to Russia and Ukraine are directed to Chinese institutions operating in these countries, and the total exposure is considered manageable. Chinese insurers have minimal local exposure in these regions, and their bond investments in Russian and Ukrainian sovereign and sub-sovereign bonds are limited, thus minimizing portfolio risks. -
SWIFT Sanctions and RMB Settlement:
The SWIFT sanctions on Russia are likely to accelerate the expansion of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and RMB settlement. While the volume of transactions via PVP agreements is expected to be limited in the short term due to political concerns, the long-term benefits of CIPS and E-CNY are anticipated to reduce political risks and enhance China's financial influence. -
Domestic Lending Rates:
The domestic lending rate is expected to remain low. Banks have already begun lowering market lending rates, and the proportion of loans issued at yields higher than the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been declining. In 1H22, more loans are expected to be issued at or below the LPR, maintaining a low market lending rate environment.
Key Companies and Ratings
The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for the banking and insurance sectors, with the following top picks:
| Ticker | Rating | Target Price (HKD) | Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1658 HK | Buy | 7.70 | 20% |
| 2328 HK | Buy | 11.53 | 40% |
| 2601 HK | Buy | 36.98 | 70% |
| 2318 HK | Buy | 87.02 | 44% |
| 601601 CH | Buy | 36.84 | 39% |
| 601939 CH | Buy | 7.50 | 24% |
| 601658 CH | Buy | 7.07 | 27% |
| 601318 CH | Buy | 72.23 | 42% |
| 601336 CH | Sell | 28.26 | -26% |
| 601077 CH | Hold | 3.60 | -8% |
| 6060 HK | Buy | 44.27 | 73% |
| 939 HK | Buy | 7.10 | 21% |
| 601229 CH | Buy | 9.04 | 29% |
| 601577 CH | Hold | 8.32 | 5% |
| 3618 HK | Hold | 2.80 | -3% |
| 601995 CH | Hold | 3.57 | -3% |
Insurance Sector Highlights
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P&C Growth:
There is a rebound in property and casualty (P&C) insurance growth, with a preference for P&C over life insurance in 1H22. Auto insurance growth is picking up, and non-auto underwriting (UW) is improving. -
Life Insurance:
Life insurance growth has slowed, particularly into 1Q22. The industry is expected to experience a weak momentum in the first quarter, with a focus on the performance of major life insurers. -
Valuation Metrics:
The report includes detailed valuation charts for life and P&C insurers, highlighting price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, as well as dividend yields and ROE metrics.
Banking Sector Highlights
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Lending Rate Trends:
The market lending rate has been decreasing, with a notable drop in the premium over LPR. The proportion of loans issued at higher yields than LPR has declined over the past months, indicating a trend towards lower rates. -
NPL and NIM:
Non-performing loan (NPL) balances and growth are closely monitored, with the sub-sector NPL ratio and net interest margin (NIM) being key indicators of bank performance. -
Loan Balances:
Development loans and mortgage balances are tracked, with trends in loan growth and changes in loan composition providing insights into banking activities.
Valuation Overview
Banking Industry Valuation
| Ticker | Name | Mkt Cap (LC) | Price (LC) | Rating | TP (LC) | Upside (%) | P/E (x) FY21E | P/E (x) FY22E | P/B (x) FY21E | P/B (x) FY22E | Dividend Yield (%) FY21E | Dividend Yield (%) FY22E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1658 HK | PSBC-H | 630.0 | 6.41 | Buy | 7.70 | 20% | 9.1 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4.7% | 5.3% |
| 939 HK | CCB-H | 1,481.0 | 5.86 | Buy | 7.10 | 21% | 5.4 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 7.0% | 7.5% |
| 601229 CH | BOSH-A | 99.3 | 6.99 | Buy | 9.04 | 29% | 5.9 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 6.2% | 6.9% |
| 600000 CH | SPDB-A | 246.3 | 8.39 | Hold | 9.34 | 11% | 5.6 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 5.4% | 6.2% |
| 601577 CH | BOCS-A | 31.9 | 7.94 | Hold | 8.32 | 5% | 4.9 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 5.6% | 6.1% |
| 3618 HK | CQRCB-H | 50.0 | 2.88 | Hold | 2.80 | -3% | 2.9 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 10.7% | 11.4% |
| 601658 SH | PSBC-A | 507.2 | 5.58 | Buy | 7.07 | 27% | 9.9 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4.3% | 4.9% |
| 601939 SH | CCB-A | 1,184.0 | 6.03 | Buy | 7.50 | 24% | 7.0 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 5.4% | 5.9% |
| 601077 SH | CQRCB-A | 40.5 | 3.91 | Hold | 3.60 | -8% | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 6.5% | 7.0% |
Insurance Industry Valuation
| Ticker | Company | Price (HKD) | Rating | TP (HKD) | Upside (%) | P/BV (x) FY21E | P/BV (x) FY22E | P/BV (x) FY23E | Dividend Yield (%) FY21E | Dividend Yield (%) FY22E | Dividend Yield (%) FY23E | P/EV (Group) FY21E | P/EV (Group) FY22E | P/EV (Group) FY23E | New Business Multiplier FY21E | New Business Multiplier FY22E | New Business Multiplier FY23E | ROE (%) FY21E | ROE (%) FY22E | ROE (%) FY23E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2318 HK | Ping An | 60.40 | Buy | 87.02 | 44% | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 15.6% | 16.4% | 15.5% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% |
| 2628 HK | China Life | 12.96 | Buy | 18.41 | 42% | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 10.9% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% |
| 2601 HK | CPIC | 21.75 | Buy | 36.98 | 70% | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 12.5% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| 1336 HK | NCL | 22.35 | Buy | 34.04 | 52% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 14.4% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| 966 HK | Taiping | 9.23 | Buy | 14.21 | 54% | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
| 1339 HK | PICC Group | 2.51 | Buy | 3.57 | 42% | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 9.0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 10.9% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% |
| 6060 HK | Zhong An | 25.60 | Buy | 44.27 | 73% | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.3 | 35.1 | 22.6 | -13.0% | -16.4% | -19.0% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% |
| 601318 CH | Ping An | 50.76 | Buy | 72.23 | 42% | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 15.6% | 16.4% | 15.5% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% |
| 601628 CH | China Life | 28.78 | Sell | 18.34 | -36% | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 16.2 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 10.9% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% |
| 601601 CH | CPIC | 26.44 | Buy | 36.84 | 39% | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.9 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 12.5% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% |
| 601336 CH | NCL | 38.10 | Sell | 28.26 | -26% | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.6 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 14.4% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| 601319 CH | PICC Group | 4.63 | Sell | 3.70 | -20% | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 9.0 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 10.9% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% |
Key Charts
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Banking Focus Charts:
Includes charts on market lending rate, NPL balance and growth, NPL ratio, NIM, and earnings growth. -
Insurance Focus Charts:
Highlights life and P&C premiums, investment assets mix, and loss ratios. -
Trading Bands of PBV and PER:
Provides 12-month forward P/B and P/E ratios for banks, insurers, and brokers.
Conclusion
The report suggests that the Russia-Ukraine Crisis is unlikely to have significant negative impacts on China's banking and insurance sectors due to limited exposure and the potential for growth through RMB settlement and CIPS expansion. The domestic lending rate is expected to remain low, and the sector is viewed as a good investment opportunity. Key companies are highlighted with buy and sell ratings, based on their valuation metrics and growth prospects.
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