20260411-中泰期货-Iron_Ore_Weekly_Report_22页_5mb

Iron Ore Weekly Report Summary (2026-04-11)

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the iron ore market, focusing on supply, demand, inventory, and price dynamics. It highlights the bearish bias in the market and the key factors influencing the price movements and trade activities.

Main Supply Trends

• Global Shipments (Last Week): 2472.4 (down 671.9 w/w, down 715.4 y/y).
• Australia Shipments (Last Week): 1033.8 (down 961.9 w/w, down 952.6 y/y). The shipment rebounded significantly as the cyclone disturbance ended.
• Brazil Shipments (Last Week): 841.4 (up 277.6 w/w, up 180.0 y/y).
• Australia & Brazil Share: 75.85% (down 5.56%).
• Non-Major Suppliers Share: 24.16% (up 5.56%).
• Port Arrivals (Last Week): 2426.3 (up 154.7 w/w, up 2784.7 y/y). The arrival data is expected to drop to around 16.59 million nt next week, with a potential decline of more than 2 million nt in port inventories.

Demand Trends

• Hot Metal Output (Daily): 237.39 (up 6.30).
• Scrap Arrivals (255 Mills): 48.93 (up 0.42).
• Scrap Consumption (255 Mills): 50.02 (up 1.64).
• Scrap Inventory (255 Mills): 553.97 (up 15.19).
• Hot Metal Output Trends: May continue to rise over the next 2-3 weeks, but with a slowing month-on-month growth rate.
• Scrap Trends: Arrivals align with seasonal patterns, and consumption increases in line with hot metal output.

Inventory Status

• Total Inventory (Last Week): 22929.23 (down 108.92 w/w, up 2821.92 y/y). Long-term accumulation trend continues, but the month-on-month slope is flattening.
• Imported Ore Inventory (247 Mills): 8933.92 (down 44.64 w/w, down 237.80 y/y).
• Domestic Ore Inventory: 97.98 (down 1.89 w/w, down 20.41 y/y).
• Port Inventory (45 Ports): 17749.79 (up 82.96 w/w, up 2592.54 y/y).
• Ships at Berth (45 Ports): 100.00 (down 11.00).
• Domestic Ore Inventory (186 Mining Enterprises): 97.98 (down 1.89 w/w).
• Sinter Feed Inventory (64 Steel Mills): 78.15 (down 0.12 w/w).
• Domestic Ore Inventory (Total): 399.59 (down 2.33 w/w, down 20.41 y/y).

Price Analysis

• 62% Fe Platts Index: 108.20 (down 0.30).
• 65%-62% Spread: 17.30 (down 0.35).
• 62%-58% Spread: 13.00 (up 2.40).
• Freight Rates:
  • Australia (W. Coast) to China: 11.53 (up 0.50).
  • Brazil (Tubarão) to China: 30.02 (down 0.67).
• Basis & Spreads:
  • New PBF (60.8% Fe): 770.0 (down 9.0).
  • Carajás Premium over New PBF: 166.0 (neutral).
  • New PBF Premium over Super Special Fines: 110.0 (down 1.0).
• Warehouse Receipt Basis:
  • OC6 (May Contract): Basis 0.1 (down 0.83).
• Futures & Spreads:
  • 01: 758.0 (down 11.5).
  • 05: 799.5 (down 12.5).
  • 09: 776.0 (down 12.0).
  • 01-05: -41.5 (up 1.0).
  • 05-09: 23.5 (down 0.5).
  • 09-01: 18.0 (down 0.5).
• Physical Basis: Strengthens as futures prices fall and weakens as futures prices rebound, indicating significant pressure on physical markets.
• Import Profit (Previous Day):
  • Newman Fines: 5.97 (up 7.99).
  • OC6: -44.87 (down 31.67).
• USD Premium:
  • Newman Fines: -6.00 (neutral).
  • OC6: -3.80 (up 2.00).
• ZK Negotiations: Highly uncertain, and the short-term time spread logic is unclear. If negotiations succeed, medium-grade ore shipments could return to normal levels, increasing pressure on port inventories.

Key Focus Areas

• ZK and BHP Negotiations: Continuously impacting the market. Success could stimulate medium-grade ore shipments and affect port inventory pressure.
• Basis Changes for the Most Deliverable Product: Important for market sentiment and pricing dynamics.

Additional Notes

• Data Sources: Mysteel, compiled by Zhongtai Futures Research Institute.
• Shipment and Arrival Data: Updated on the Monday of the following week.
• Inventory Calculation: Total Imported Ore Inventory includes 47 Port Inventory, Vessel Queue Inventory, and 247 Steel Mills Inventory (approx. 0.4 on-site ratio).
• Import Profit Formula: Includes index, premium, freight, exchange rate, L13, and port charges.
• Market Participation Logic: Remains unchanged, with frequent disturbances from ZK-BHP negotiations affecting price reactions.

Summary of Key Trends

• Supply: Australian shipments rebounded after cyclone, but Brazil shipments remained strong. Non-major suppliers increased their share.
• Demand: Hot metal output and scrap consumption are rising, though the growth rate is slowing.
• Inventory: Total inventories continue to accumulate, with port inventories expected to decline.
• Price: The 62% Fe Platts Index shows a slight decline, while spreads widen between high-grade and medium-grade ores. Freight rates remain high, and USD premiums for most products are neutral.
• Negotiations: ZK and BHP negotiations remain a key focus, with potential impacts on medium-grade ore shipments and market sentiment.

Conclusion

The market remains bearish, with supply and demand dynamics, inventory levels, and price spreads all contributing to this bias. Continued attention is required on the progress of ZK-BHP negotiations and changes in the basis for the most deliverable product.