Maxscend (300782 CH) Summary
Core Content Overview
Maxscend (300782 CH) released its FY25 financial results, showing a revenue decline of 17% to RMB3.7bn, below the BBG consensus and the firm's own forecast. The company reported a net loss of RMB293mn, with gross margin (GPM) declining to 25.7%, 1ppt below BBG consensus and 6ppts below the firm's previous forecast. The decline in revenue and GPM is attributed to low fab utilization rates, an unfavorable product mix, and increased raw material costs.
The company is in a transition phase toward a fab-lite model, which continues to pressure near-term earnings due to elevated depreciation and ramp inefficiencies. The firm maintains a HOLD rating, with a revised target price (TP) of RMB91, corresponding to a 45x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2027E, reflecting the delayed margin normalization and earnings recovery.
Key Financial Highlights
- Revenue: FY25 decreased by 17% to RMB3.7bn, with a further decline of 11% YoY in FY25 due to delayed ramp and supply constraints.
- GPM: Dropped to 25.7%, significantly below previous expectations.
- Net Profit: Declined to RMB-293mn in FY25, with net profit for FY26E expected to be RMB-218mn, improving in FY27E to RMB235mn and FY28E to RMB443mn.
- EPS: FY26E is expected to be RMB-0.41, up to RMB0.44 in FY27E, and RMB0.83 in FY28E.
- Net Margin: Negative in FY26E, expected to improve to 5.3% in FY27E and 8.2% in FY28E.
Revenue Mix and Market Outlook
- L-PAMiD: The key driver for medium-term recovery, with a successful entry into domestic tier-1 supply chains and clear advantages in cost, size, and integration.
- RF Module Mix: Increased to 45% in FY25 from 42% in FY24.
- RF Discrete Mix: Fell to 52% in FY25 from 56% in FY24, reflecting weaker end demand and pricing pressure in more commoditized segments.
- Expectations for 2026: Continued improvement in revenue mix due to L-PAMiM ramp and increasing contribution from high-integration modules.
1Q26 Performance
- Revenue: Increased by 9% YoY to RMB828mn but fell 14% QoQ due to seasonality.
- GPM: Dropped to 18.5%, significantly below the 31% in 1Q25 and 22.8% in 4Q25.
- Earnings Recovery: Expected to gradually recover through 2026, but margin recovery is likely to lag due to low utilization and pricing pressure.
Strategic Asset: 12-inch Xinzhuo Fab
- Utilization: Remains low, impacting margins.
- Capabilities: Supports key processes like SOI and heterogeneous integration, enabling internalization of high-value modules.
- Long-term Value: The fab is a strategic asset, driving long-term competitiveness and potential margin upside.
Key Risks and Opportunities
- Upside Risks: Improved end market demand, reduction in raw material prices.
- Downside Risks: Worsening end market demand, R&D challenges.
Analyst Ratings and Target Price
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price (TP): RMB91.00 (up/downside: 10.8%)
- Current Price: RMB101.98
- Previous TP: RMB81.50
Shareholding and Stock Data
- Market Cap: RMB54,436.9mn
- Average 3 Months Turnover: RMB1,721.0mn
- 52-Week High/Low: RMB114.59 / RMB67.33
- Total Issued Shares: 533.8mn
Shareholding Structure
- WX HUIZHI UNITED INV: 10.3%
- Feng Chenhui: 6.8%
Earnings Summary
| Year |
Revenue (RMB mn) |
YoY Growth (%) |
Gross Margin (%) |
Net Profit (RMB mn) |
YoY Growth (%) |
| FY24A |
4,487 |
2.5 |
39.5 |
402 |
4.0 |
| FY25A |
3,726 |
-17.0 |
25.7 |
-293 |
-2.9 |
| FY26E |
3,775 |
1.3 |
27.8 |
-218 |
-2.2 |
| FY27E |
4,462 |
18.2 |
32.7 |
235 |
2.4 |
| FY28E |
5,406 |
21.1 |
35.4 |
443 |
4.4 |
Earnings Revision Table
| Metric |
FY26E (New) |
FY27E (New) |
FY28E (New) |
FY26E (Old) |
FY27E (Old) |
FY28E (Old) |
Diff (%) |
| Revenue |
3,775 |
4,462 |
5,406 |
4,946 |
6,112 |
N/A |
-24% / -27% |
| Gross Profit |
1,049 |
1,458 |
1,912 |
1,807 |
2,501 |
N/A |
-42% / -42% |
| Net Profit |
-218 |
235 |
443 |
358 |
885 |
N/A |
-161% / -73% |
| EPS |
-0.41 |
0.44 |
0.83 |
0.67 |
1.65 |
N/A |
-161% / -73% |
| Gross Margin |
27.8% |
32.7% |
35.4% |
31.5% |
35.6% |
45.4% |
-3.7ppt / -8.2ppt |
| Net Margin |
-5.8% |
5.3% |
8.2% |
9.5% |
14.6% |
21.4% |
-15.3ppt / -9.2ppt |
Peer Comparison
| Company |
Mkt Cap (RMB mn) |
FY26E P/E |
FY27E P/E |
FY28E P/E |
FY26E EV/EBITDA |
FY27E EV/EBITDA |
FY28E EV/EBITDA |
| Vanchip |
2,245 |
78.2 |
41.6 |
- |
29.7 |
16.9 |
- |
| Awinic |
2,330 |
37.4 |
30.2 |
26.2 |
26.2 |
21.7 |
- |
| Smarter Micro |
873 |
- |
1,275.0 |
- |
- |
78.0 |
- |
| Average |
- |
57.8 |
448.9 |
26.2 |
- |
38.9 |
- |
Financial Summary
Income Statement
| Metric |
2023A |
2024A |
2025A |
2026E |
2027E |
2028E |
| Revenue |
4,378 |
4,487 |
3,726 |
3,775 |
4,462 |
5,406 |
| Gross Profit |
2,034 |
1,772 |
957 |
1,049 |
1,458 |
1,912 |
| Operating Profit |
1,192 |
521 |
-142 |
117 |
513 |
758 |
| Net Profit |
1,122 |
402 |
-293 |
-218 |
235 |
443 |
Balance Sheet
| Metric |
2023A |
2024A |
2025A |
2026E |
2027E |
2028E |
| Total Assets |
10,958 |
14,233 |
15,469 |
13,188 |
13,544 |
14,749 |
| Total Liabilities |
1,154 |
4,032 |
5,595 |
3,526 |
3,619 |
4,398 |
| Total Shareholders Equity |
9,803 |
10,199 |
9,872 |
9,661 |
9,924 |
10,350 |
Cash Flow
| Metric |
2023A |
2024A |
2025A |
2026E |
2027E |
2028E |
| Net Cash from Operations |
1,885 |
80 |
104 |
3,105 |
-1,117 |
3,103 |
| Net Cash from Investing |
-2,292 |
-1,812 |
-810 |
-419 |
-367 |
-387 |
| Net Cash from Financing |
-94 |
2,407 |
851 |
-2,134 |
247 |
382 |
| Cash at the End of the Year |
711 |
1,398 |
1,530 |
2,069 |
820 |
3,906 |
Valuation and Growth
| Metric |
2023A |
2024A |
2025A |
2026E |
2027E |
2028E |
| Revenue Growth (%) |
19.1% |
2.5% |
-17.0% |
1.3% |
18.2% |
21.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth (%) |
4.5% |
-12.9% |
-46.0% |
9.6% |
39.0% |
31.2% |
| Net Profit Growth (%) |
5.0% |
-64.2% |
- |
- |
- |
88.5% |
Profitability
| Metric |
2023A |
2024A |
2025A |
2026E |
2027E |
2028E |
| Gross Margin (%) |
46.4% |
39.5% |
25.7% |
27.8% |
32.7% |
35.4% |
| Operating Margin (%) |
27.2% |
11.6% |
-3.8% |
3.1% |
11.5% |
14.0% |
| ROE (%) |
12.1% |
4.0% |
-2.9% |
-2.2% |
2.4% |
4.4% |
Analyst Certification
The analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect their personal views and that no part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views in this report. They also confirm that they have not traded in the stock within 30 days prior to the report and will not do so within 3 business days after the report's issue.
CMBIGM Ratings
- BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
- HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
- SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
- NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM
- OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
- MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
- UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark
Disclaimer
- The report is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- The information is subject to change without notice.
- CMBIGM may have conflicts of interest and may not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the report.
- The report is intended for specific recipients and may not be reproduced or distributed without consent.
