2021-06-10-牛津经济研究院-US_Recovery_Tracker_ends_May_firing_on_all_cylinders_3页_447kb

US Economic Recovery Tracker Summary

Overview: The US Recovery Tracker closed May on a positive note, increasing by 1.5 points to 94.6, reaching a new recovery peak due to factors including boosted demand for Memorial Day, improved financial conditions, enhanced health metrics, higher production, and stronger employment.

Key Drivers:

• A surge in demand, evidenced by near-pre-pandemic restaurant bookings, increased flight numbers, and elevated credit card spending.
• Looser financial conditions, with equity rallies, reduced volatility, and stable yields.
• Better health outcomes from higher vaccination rates and declining Covid test positivity.
• Robust production, led by new business applications and oil rig increases.
• Employment advancements, including higher job postings and fewer layoffs, though labor supply constraints linger.

State-Level Improvements:

• Nearly all US states (49 out of 50) saw concurrent rises in their State Recovery Trackers, marking the first time nearly every state showed improvement in 2021.
• Regional highlights:
  • Southwest and Mountains regions led with the strongest gains.
  • Midwest, South, and Pacific regions showed progress.
  • The East region held steady, with New York and New Jersey unchanged.

Future Outlook: Upcoming updates to the US Recovery Tracker will be bi-weekly. A Power BI dashboard is available and will continue weekly updates.

Additional Notes: Vaccination rates exceeded 50% for adults fully vaccinated, supporting a potential summer economic boom.