> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 Summary ## Core Content This document provides a mid-year update on global electricity trends for 2026, building on the Electricity 2026 report. It outlines key developments in electricity demand, supply, emissions, and pricing, emphasizing the impact of the Middle East crisis and other geopolitical factors on the energy landscape. --- ## Main Points ### **Global Electricity Demand Growth** - Electricity demand is expected to grow faster in 2026 and 2027 than in 2025. - Forecasted growth for 2026: **3.6%**, accelerating to **3.8%** in 2027. - The demand is driven by **industrial growth**, **appliance ownership**, **data centre expansion**, and **electric vehicle (EV) adoption**, as well as **air conditioning and heat pump usage**. - Global electricity consumption is projected to reach **30,700 TWh** by 2027, up from **28,600 TWh** in 2025. ### **Impact of the Middle East Crisis** - The **Strait of Hormuz crisis** caused a **temporary loss of nearly 20% of global LNG supply**, leading to **price volatility** in natural gas. - This has **increased electricity generation costs** and prompted **fuel switching from gas to coal** in several Asian and European countries. - **Energy security** is being supported by the **expansion of renewables**, which is helping to diversify electricity supplies. ### **Regional Electricity Demand Trends** - **China**: Electricity demand is expected to rise by **5.5% in 2026**, driven by **high-tech manufacturing**, **EV charging**, and **data centres**. - **India**: Demand growth rebounded to **7% in 2026**, following a **1.6% increase in 2025** due to an early monsoon. **Heatwaves** and **lower rainfall** are expected to increase **cooling demand** and **agricultural electricity use**. - **United States**: Demand growth is projected at **1.8% in 2026**, with **data centres**, **air conditioning**, and **industrial activity** as key drivers. - **European Union**: Demand is forecast to grow by **2.1% in 2026**, supported by **electrification**, **weather-related cooling needs**, and **strong industrial output**. ### **Renewables in Power Generation** - **Renewables** are set to **overtake coal** in 2026 as the **largest source of electricity generation**. - Global renewables generation is expected to grow by **8% in 2026** and **9% in 2027**, increasing their share of electricity generation from **33% in 2025** to **37% by 2027**. - **Solar PV** is the largest contributor to renewables growth, with output expected to increase by **610 TWh in 2026**, surpassing **wind power** to become the **second-largest renewable source** after **hydropower**. - **China** accounts for **half of the global solar PV generation increase**, while **India** and other Asian economies will contribute **17%** in 2026. ### **Emissions Trends** - **CO₂ emissions** from electricity generation are expected to **increase by 1% in 2026**, but **plateau in 2027**. - The rise in emissions is due to **fuel switching from gas to coal** in some countries and **weather-related increases** in coal and oil generation. - In 2027, **renewables, nuclear, and natural gas** will displace coal generation globally, leading to **stable emissions**. ### **Wholesale Electricity Prices** - **Natural gas price volatility** has driven up **wholesale electricity prices**, especially in **Europe and Japan**, with **price increases of over 30%** in Q2 2026. - **United States** and **India** were less affected, with **price increases below 10%**. - **Australia** saw **wholesale prices drop by 45%**, due to **strong renewable generation** and **expanding battery storage**. - **Negative electricity prices** have become more common, indicating **system flexibility** is becoming more critical. **South Australia and California** saw **20% of hours** with negative prices, while **Sweden and Finland** saw a **decline** in such instances. --- ## Key Information - **Global electricity demand** is expected to **exceed 30,000 TWh in 2027**, driven by structural factors and weather. - **Renewables** are **surpassing coal** in electricity generation, with **solar PV** leading the growth. - **El Niño** is expected to **increase cooling demand** and **reduce hydropower and wind generation**, especially in **Latin America and Southeast Asia**. - **Electric vehicle adoption** and **data centres** are major contributors to electricity demand in **China** and the **United States**. - **Weather conditions** have a **significant impact** on electricity demand, particularly in **India** and the **European Union**. - **Geopolitical tensions** and **economic downturns** pose **downside risks** to electricity demand forecasts. - **Nuclear power** is expected to **increase in 2026**, with **stronger growth in 2027** due to **new reactor additions** in **China and India**. - **Natural gas prices** have **limited gas-fired generation growth** in 2026, but **rebound is expected in 2027**. --- ## Conclusion The global electricity market is experiencing **strong growth** in demand and **increased reliance on renewables** despite **geopolitical shocks** and **price volatility**. While **emissions are expected to rise slightly in 2026**, they are **projected to stabilize in 2027** as **renewables and nuclear** expand. **Flexibility** in the system, including **battery storage** and **demand response**, is becoming increasingly important to manage **price volatility** and **supply constraints**. The **Middle East crisis** has had a **significant impact** on **LNG prices** and **electricity generation costs**, but **long-term trends** suggest a **shift towards cleaner energy sources**.