> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Li Auto Inc. (LI US/2015 HK) Summary ## Core Content Li Auto Inc. is a company that has been analyzed by CMB International Global Markets Limited (CMBIGM). The report provides an earnings forecast and valuation analysis for the company's future financial performance. ## Main Points - **Earnings Performance**: - Li Auto's 2Q26 earnings were in line with expectations, but its 3Q26 guidance was below expectations. - The company's 2Q26 revenue decreased by 15.1% YoY due to a 11.5% YoY sales volume drop, but it still beat projections by 3.4% due to higher ASP from the L9 Livis. - GPM in 2Q26 widened by 3.2ppts QoQ to 11.0%, while the combined SG&A and R&D ratio narrowed by 0.7ppts QoQ to 19.0%. - The operating loss in 2Q26 was RMB2.3bn, and the net loss narrowed slightly to RMB1.7bn. - **Sales Guidance and Forecast**: - The management's 3Q26 sales volume guidance of 95,000-100,000 units was lower than expected. - The company's FY26E sales volume forecast was cut by 12% to 414,000 units, with a 4Q26E forecast of about 120,000 units. - The FY27E sales volume forecast was also trimmed by 11% to 0.5mn units. - The report suggests that without major new model additions, there is limited growth headroom for FY27-28. - **Gross Margin and Profitability**: - Management now views a long-term sustainable GPM range of 15-20%. - This structural reset has led to a revision of operating margin expectations for FY27-28 to 1.1-2.3%. - The FY27E net profit forecast was cut by 34% to RMB2.8bn. - **Valuation and Target Price**: - The report maintains a HOLD rating. - Target prices for ADS and H-shares were cut from US\$16.00/HK\$62.00 to US\$12.00/HK\$47.00. - The P/S multiple is 0.6x FY27E, corresponding to a 30x P/E multiple. - The P/S multiple aligns with sector peers, while the P/E multiple already reflects the company's physical AI capabilities. ## Key Information - **Current Price**: - US\$12.1 - HK\$48.1 - **Earnings Summary**: - Revenue for FY24A was RMB144,460 million, with a YoY growth of 16.6%. - FY26E revenue is expected to be RMB109,868 million, with a YoY growth of -2.2%. - FY27E revenue is forecasted to be RMB136,913 million, with a YoY growth of 24.6%. - FY28E revenue is expected to be RMB151,265 million, with a YoY growth of 10.5%. - **Gross Margin**: - FY24A gross margin was 20.5%. - FY26E gross margin is expected to be 12.8%. - FY27E gross margin is forecasted to be 16.3%. - FY28E gross margin is expected to be 16.3%. - **Operating Profit**: - FY24A operating profit was RMB7,019.1 million. - FY26E operating profit is expected to be -RMB6,667.2 million. - FY27E operating profit is forecasted to be RMB1,442.0 million. - FY28E operating profit is expected to be RMB3,519.2 million. - **Net Profit**: - FY24A net profit was RMB8,032.4 million. - FY26E net profit is expected to be -RMB4,298.1 million. - FY27E net profit is forecasted to be RMB2,753.3 million. - FY28E net profit is expected to be RMB4,703.0 million. - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - FY24A adjusted net profit was RMB10,663.3 million. - FY26E adjusted net profit is expected to be -RMB3,066.6 million. - FY27E adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB4,316.1 million. - FY28E adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB6,144.9 million. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - FY24A EPS was RMB4.03. - FY26E EPS is expected to be -RMB2.11. - FY27E EPS is forecasted to be RMB1.34. - FY28E EPS is expected to be RMB2.25. - **Stock Performance**: - 1-month performance: -3.8% for LI US, -4.9% for 2015 HK. - 3-month performance: -23.1% for LI US, -21.7% for 2015 HK. - 6-month performance: -31.0% for LI US, -30.0% for 2015 HK. - **Key Risks**: - Sales volume may be higher or lower than expected. - Gross margin may differ from forecasts. - Sector re-rating or de-rating could affect the valuation. ## Analyst Certification - The research analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer. - No part of the analyst's compensation was directly or indirectly related to the specific views expressed in the report. - The analyst confirms that neither he nor his associates have traded in the stock(s) covered in the report within 30 calendar days prior to its release, nor will do so within 3 business days after the release. - The analyst does not serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in them. ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months. - **NOT RATED**: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. ## Important Disclosures - The report contains risks involved in transacting in any securities. - It is not suitable for all investors. - CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - Past performance is not indicative of future performance. - The value and returns of investments are uncertain and may fluctuate. - The report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed, or published without prior written consent from CMBIGM. ## Legal Information - **Hong Kong**: CMBIGM is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited. - **United Kingdom**: The report is provided only to persons falling within specific legal definitions. - **United States**: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the US, and the report is for distribution to "major US institutional investors" only. - **Singapore**: The report is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.