> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Geely Automobile (175 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Key Highlights Geely Automobile (175 HK) is a leading Chinese automaker undergoing significant intelligent transformation and global expansion. The company has been actively investing in autonomous driving (AD) and smart cockpit technologies, demonstrating progress with its G-ASD 4.0 system and H7 hardware. The company's recent investor day showcased its advancements in integrating R&D resources to catch up with leading peers in these areas. Additionally, Geely is leveraging its asset-light model and partnerships with local automakers to accelerate its global expansion, particularly in Europe. ## Main Points - **Investor Day Insights**: - Geely has made progress in AD and smart cockpit technologies. - The current AD system is based on a one-stage end-to-end (E2E) framework, with plans to integrate the Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model onto higher-computing-power SoCs. - Super Eva is described as a prototype AI agent utilizing Step 3.5 Flash, capable of integrating AD functions with route planning, real-time interaction, and personalized communication. - **Global Expansion Strategy**: - Geely continues to beat its year-to-date (YTD) export volume targets. - The company is focusing on establishing partnerships in Europe by offering its NEV architecture in exchange for local production capacity. - Expected overseas sales volume for FY26E is 1 million units, with a projection of 1.4 million units for FY27E. - **Financial Forecast**: - The 2Q26 earnings are projected to show a core net profit increase of 14% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). - Revenue is expected to rise by 26% YoY, driven by higher exports and better model mix, potentially leading to a gross margin (GPM) lift of 1.3 ppts YoY to 18.4%. - Combined SG&A and R&D ratio is expected to narrow by 0.8 ppts YoY to 12.4%, alongside a forex gain of RMB700mn, leading to a net profit forecast of RMB5.8bn and a core net profit forecast of RMB5.2bn. - **Revised Forecasts**: - FY26E net profit is revised up by 8.5% to RMB22.7bn. - FY27E and FY28E net profit estimates are raised by 10.9% and 9.6%, respectively. - The company maintains its BUY rating and target price of HK\$27.00, based on a revised P/E of 11x, reflecting weak market sentiment in the China auto sector. ## Key Financial Metrics | Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 275,910 | 345,232 | 418,743 | 470,977 | 512,495 | | YoY growth (%) | 54.0 | 25.1 | 21.3 | 12.5 | 8.8 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 16,812 | 16,852 | 22,670 | 26,737 | 28,747 | | YoY growth (%) | 216.7 | 0.2 | 34.5 | 17.9 | 7.5 | | EPS (Reported) (RMB) | 1.67 | 1.67 | 2.07 | 2.42 | 2.58 | | P/E (x) | 9.6 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 6.2 | | P/B (x) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | | Yield (%) | 1.9 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 6.4 | | ROE (%) | 20.1 | 18.8 | 22.2 | 21.9 | 20.2 | | Net gearing (%) | (45.1) | (55.6) | (69.3) | (81.9) | (91.1) | ## Earnings Summary | Metric | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26E | |--------|------|------|------|------|------|-------| | Sales volume (units) | 703,824 | 705,356 | 761,009 | 854,378 | 709,358 | 752,801 | | YoY | 6.7% | 6.1% | - | - | - | - | | QoQ | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Total revenue (RMB mn) | 72,692 | 77,593 | 89,192 | 105,755 | 83,776 | 97,864 | | Gross profit (RMB mn) | 11,446 | 13,273 | 14,793 | 17,835 | 14,664 | 18,007 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 5,673 | 3,617 | 3,820 | 3,742 | 4,166 | 5,763 | | Adj. net profit (RMB mn) | 3,480 | 3,180 | 3,960 | 3,790 | 4,561 | 5,203 | | Gross margin (%) | 15.7% | 17.1% | 16.6% | 16.9% | 17.5% | 18.4% | | Net margin (%) | 7.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | | Adj. net margin (%) | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | ## Earnings Revision | Metric | New (FY26E) | Old (FY26E) | Diff (%) | |--------|------------|------------|----------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 418,743 | 403,803 | 3.7% | | Gross profit (RMB mn) | 75,791 | 71,620 | 5.8% | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 22,670 | 20,886 | 8.5% | | Gross margin (%) | 18.1% | 17.7% | 0.4 ppts | | Net margin (%) | 5.4% | 5.2% | 0.2 ppts | ## CMBI Estimates vs Consensus | Metric | CMBIGM | Consensus | Diff (%) | |--------|--------|-----------|---------| | Revenue (RMB mn) | 418,743 | 428,351 | -2.2% | | Gross profit (RMB mn) | 75,791 | 72,383 | 4.7% | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 22,670 | 20,504 | 10.6% | | Gross margin (%) | 18.1% | 16.9% | 1.2 ppts | | Net margin (%) | 5.4% | 4.8% | 0.6 ppts | ## Analyst Certification - The research analyst certifies that all views expressed in the report accurately reflect personal views. - No part of the analyst's compensation is related to the specific views expressed in the report. - The analyst has not traded in the stock covered in the report within 30 calendar days prior to the report's release and will not trade within 3 business days after the release. - The analyst does not serve as an officer of any of the Hong Kong listed companies covered in the report and has no financial interests in them. ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months. - **NOT RATED**: Stock not rated by CMBIGM. - **OUTPERFORM**: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark. - **MARKET-PERFORM**: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark. - **UNDERPERFORM**: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark. ## Important Disclosures - There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. - The information in the report is not suitable for all investors. - CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice. - Past performance is not indicative of future performance. - The value and returns of investments are uncertain and may fluctuate. - CMBIGM recommends that investors evaluate particular investments and strategies independently and consult with a professional financial advisor. ## Legal Disclaimer - The report is prepared for the use of intended recipients only. - The report may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed, or published without prior written consent from CMBIGM. - CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States and is not subject to U.S. rules regarding research reports and the independence of research analysts. - The research analyst is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).