> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # 中国（海外）及香港互联网 # 携程监管事件第2天跟踪：财务影响有限，但估值承压 # 观点聚焦 Investment Focus <table><tr><td>名称</td><td>评级</td><td>名称</td><td>评级</td></tr><tr><td>腾讯控股</td><td>优于大市</td><td>微博</td><td>优于大市</td></tr><tr><td>拼多多</td><td>中性</td><td>爱奇艺</td><td>中性</td></tr><tr><td>网易公司</td><td>优于大市</td><td>雅乐科技</td><td>中性</td></tr><tr><td>美团</td><td>优于大市</td><td>虎牙</td><td>中性</td></tr><tr><td>美团</td><td>中性</td><td>IGG</td><td>优于大市</td></tr><tr><td>百度</td><td>优于大市</td><td>知乎</td><td>优于大市</td></tr><tr><td>携程集团</td><td>优于大市</td><td>斗鱼</td><td>中性</td></tr><tr><td>京东</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>快手科技</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>腾讯音乐</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>哔哩哔哩</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>看准科技有限公司</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>同程旅行</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>心动公司</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>阅文集团</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>欢聚时代</td><td>优于大市</td><td></td><td></td></tr></table> 资料来源：慧甚、海通国际 # 相关报告 内容周报第157期：腾讯控股游戏在顺网12月PC游戏榜单中占据9席（2026年1月13日） 内容周报第156期：燕云十六声海外热潮持续高涨（2025年12月23日） 内容周报第155期：腾讯控股游戏包揽11月十大最受欢迎PC游戏中的九席（2025年12月9日） (本报告为2026年1月16日报告TCOM's Regulatory Update Day 2: limited impact on financials, but valuation faces pressure的中文翻译) 最新动态/进展：昨日（2025年1月14日），国家市场监督管理总局已就涉嫌滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为，对携程（TCOM US\9961 HK）正式立案调查。我们同日发布的报告《携程正接受反垄断调查》，鉴于携程估值偏高，且更多信息尚未披露，我们建议投资者规避潜在处罚风险及其对携程商业模式和盈利能力的影响。 在本报告中，我们将探讨以下问题：1）如果实施处罚和整改措施，可能出现哪些最坏情况？2）这会否影响携程的市场地位和商业模式？3）对携程2026财年预测的潜在影响是什么？4）携程的估值空间及其未来股价走势如何？5）哪些公司可能会从中受益？ 结论与建议：从美团和阿里巴巴的案例来看，从启动调查到实施处罚（通常包括罚款和整改）大约需要6个月。假设对携程的罚款为2024年国内营收的 $4\%$ ，则预估值为人民币15亿，对财务的影响有限。通过渠道调研发现，酒店商户对携程的指责主要集中在“价格调整助手”、“独家合作”、流量推荐机制不透明等问题。据渠道调研显示，携程的整改可能包括：将定价权交还给酒店商户，对商户库存渠道管理采取更宽松的策略，并为参与“积分联盟”计划的商户提供便利支持。考虑到携程在产品创新、卓越服务、AI技术和品牌认可度方面构建的竞争护城河，我们仍看好携程在行业中的长期领先地位，尤其中高端领域。然而，鉴于监管压力和板块竞争，携程在定价和库存管理能力减弱的情况下，市占有流失可能。我们认为，在整改期间及整改完成后，携程的营业收入增长和利润增长均可能受到影响。据我们的基准情景估算，携程2026财年总营收预计达人民币701亿元，同比增长 $13\%$ ，其中国内住宿营收预计同比增长 $3\%$ 。N-GAAP营业利润预计达人民币191亿元，同比增长 $5\%$ ，对应利润率为 $27\%$ ，同比下降2个百分点。尽管对财务预测的影响有限，但我们认为最显著的弊端在于未来利润率提升逻辑被破坏，这正是支撑其前期高估值的关键支柱。因此，估值水平可能回归至此前12-15倍的水平。基于我们修正后的预测，携程的ADR可能进一步下探至44-55美元/ADR（343.2-429.0港币）区间（中位数为49.5美元/386.1港币）。如果携程加大对更多酒店商户的支持力度，酒店板块将受益。在2026财年企业价值倍数方面，华住当前交易倍数为12倍，而亚朵酒店板块（不含零售）的交易倍数为8倍企业价值倍数。我们更偏好亚朵。 风险提示：处罚超出预期；市场竞争激烈 陈苛葳 DaisyChen,CFA daisy.kw.chen@htisec.com 孙小涵 Xiaohan Sun xh.sun@htisec.com # 1) 如果在立案调查后实施处罚和整改措施，可能出现哪些最坏情况？ # a) 反垄断处罚：财务影响有限 根据阿里巴巴（2020年12月~2021年4月）和美团（2021年4月~2021年10月）的经验，若携程被处以2024年国内销售收入 $4\%$ 的罚款，则潜在罚款金额约为人民币15亿元，这将使携程2026财年净利率下降2个百分点。截至2025年9月，携程的总现金和净现金分别为人民币1,077亿元和人民币763亿元。我们认为上述罚款金额对携程2026财年的财务数据影响有限。 阿里巴巴和美团的处罚情况总结： <table><tr><td></td><td>阿里巴巴</td><td>美团</td></tr><tr><td>立案日期</td><td>2020年12月</td><td>2021年4月</td></tr><tr><td>处罚日期</td><td>2021年4月</td><td>2021年10月</td></tr><tr><td>主要原因</td><td>滥用市场支配地位（要求商户签订独家合作协议，例如双11活动，并通过算法手段惩罚在其他平台开店的商户）</td><td>滥用市场支配地位（通过实施差别费率延迟商户入驻、收取独家合作保证金、强制外卖商户签订独家交易协议）</td></tr><tr><td>罚款占比</td><td>4%（相当于其2019年国内销售收入的4%，即人民币182.3亿元）</td><td>3%（相当于其2020年国内销售收入的3%，即人民币34亿元；此外，作为附加处罚，还被责令全额退还已收取的独家合作保证金人民币12.9亿元）</td></tr><tr><td>关键整改事项</td><td>终止独家交易行为、降低门槛，并连续三年向监管机构提交自查合规报告。</td><td>降低佣金率并公开算法细节</td></tr><tr><td>公司回应</td><td>发布声明，称接受并遵守该决定，于2024年8月完成为期三年的整改，并终止了所有独家交易行为。</td><td>成立合规团队、降低佣金率、公开算法细节、加强骑手权益保护。</td></tr><tr><td>股价反应</td><td>立案消息传出后，股价急剧下跌；处罚正式实施当日，股价大幅飙升。</td><td>立案消息传出后，股价急剧下跌；处罚正式实施当日，股价大幅飙升。</td></tr></table> 资料来源：公司数据、海通国际 # b) 整改包括“价格调整助手”、独家交易行为以及流量推荐机制不透明等问题。 通过渠道调研发现，商户对携程的不满主要集中在“调价助手”、“独家合作要求”、“流量推荐算法不透明”、不合理交易条件、变相加佣金等问题。据渠道调研显示，潜在的政策调整可能涉及将定价权交还给商户（允许商家无条件自由选择开启或者关闭“调价助手”），对于金牌和特牌商家，不再要求“独家”和“维持全网最低价”，给参加“积分联盟”的商家提供便利等。 # 2）从中长期来看，这是否可能影响携程的市场地位和商业模式？预计仍将保持市场龙头地位，但可能面临市占率流失风险。 携程作为中国在线旅游市场的绝对领导者，具备多项核心竞争优势，包括：供应链壁垒、用户规模、高质量服务、AI与互联网技术护城河、资本整合能力以及品牌心智。作为平台，携程采用以“流量-交易-变现”闭环为核心的商业模式，通过向商家收取交易佣金及广告费等获得营收。除主站外，携程还控股去哪儿网，并持有同程旅行的股权。 此次事件后，我们认为携程在可预见的未来仍能维持其在在线旅游行业的领先地位。这是因为基于强大供应链和成熟运营团队支撑的产品创新与高质量服务需要长期积累，而这构成了携程坚实的护城河。高质量用户仍可能对携程保持粘性。从商家角度看，携程精准且庞大的用户流量、品牌影响力（如借助海外业务带动国内增长）、交叉销售能力以及高效运营能力，能够帮助商家快速消化库存并为消费者提供优质服务。 然而，若监管部门对携程实施严格监管，携程可能流失部分价格敏感型用户及酒店商家库存，从而导致市场份额下降。由于携程的“调价助手”机制确保公司提供最优价格，如果携程后续允许商家在平台上自主定价，同时在没有库存锁定约束的情况下，若携程自身不对用户进行补贴，价格敏感型用户可能流失。其次，部分酒店商家可能将库存同步上线至其他拥有流量的平台，如美团、阿里巴巴旗下的飞猪等。 # 3）对携程2026财年业绩预测的潜在影响？影响有限 因此，从财务角度看，近期的不利因素不仅限于潜在的监管罚款（通常不会计入Nongaap净利润）。我们预计，携程的净佣金率（定义为扣除用户补贴后的佣金率）、住宿业务营收增长及整体利润率将受到影响。在我们的基准情景下，我们做出以下调整：1）假设净佣金率稳定在 $8.8\%$ （近年维持在 $8\% \sim 10\%$ 的区间）。2）预计对营业利润率产生2个百分点的影响。（全年营销预算全额使用（占营收的 $24\%$ ），且整体毛利率收缩至 $79\%$ 。3）预测2026财年总营收达到人民币701亿元，同比增长 $13\%$ 其中，国内住宿营收预计同比增长 $3\%$ ，整体住宿营收预计同比增长 $13\%$ 。Non-Gaap营业利润预计为人民币191亿元，同比增长 $5\%$ ，对应利润率为 $27\%$ 关于整改影响的测算 <table><tr><td>百万人民币</td><td>2025财年(预测)</td><td>2026财年(预测)整改影响</td><td>2027财年(预测)整改影响</td><td>2026财年当前彭博一致预期</td><td>2027财年当前彭博一致预期</td></tr><tr><td>总营收</td><td>62,100.1</td><td>70,111.2</td><td>79,192.0</td><td>70,450.3</td><td>79,573.7</td></tr><tr><td>同比</td><td></td><td>13%</td><td>13%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>住宿总营收</td><td>26,130.2</td><td>29,650.3</td><td>33,606.6</td><td>30,165.0</td><td>34,488.6</td></tr><tr><td>同比</td><td></td><td>13%</td><td>13%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>国内住宿营收</td><td>17,989.9</td><td>18,460.6</td><td>19,601.4</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>同比</td><td></td><td>3%</td><td>6%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>国内净佣金率</td><td>9.3%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>8.8%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>海外住宿营收</td><td>3,553.3</td><td>5,685.3</td><td>7,959.4</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>同比</td><td></td><td>60%</td><td>40%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>出境住宿营收</td><td>4,587.0</td><td>5,504.4</td><td>6,330.1</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>同比</td><td></td><td>20%</td><td>15%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>交通运输</td><td>22,474.6</td><td>24,946.8</td><td>27,691.0</td><td>24,815.6</td><td>27,366.3</td></tr><tr><td>跟团游</td><td>4,545.5</td><td>5,091.0</td><td>5,701.9</td><td>5,198.0</td><td>5,800.7</td></tr><tr><td>企业差旅</td><td>2,772.1</td><td>3,021.6</td><td>3,293.6</td><td>3,065.3</td><td>3,412.6</td></tr><tr><td>其他</td><td>6,177.7</td><td>7,598.5</td><td>9,118.3</td><td>7,579.7</td><td>8,945.4</td></tr><tr><td>毛利率</td><td>81%</td><td>79%</td><td>79%</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Non-GAAP营业利润</td><td>18,134.3</td><td>19,097.6</td><td>21,389.7</td><td>23,800.1</td><td>27,056.5</td></tr><tr><td>同比</td><td></td><td>5%</td><td>12%</td><td>31%</td><td>14%</td></tr><tr><td>Non-GAAP营业利润率</td><td>29%</td><td>27%</td><td>27%</td><td>34%</td><td>34%</td></tr></table> 资料来源：公司数据、海通国际测算、彭博社 最差情景：假设净佣金率降至约 $8\%$ ，毛利率受到2个百分点的负面影响，酒店GMV保持个位数增长，其他假设不变。在2026财年，国内酒店营收预计将下降 $6\%$ ，酒店总营收预计将增长 $7\%$ ；总营收和Non-GAAP营业利润预计分别为人民币684亿元（同比增长 $10\%$ ）和人民币175亿元（同比下降 $3\%$ ）。 最佳情景：假设调查结论认为携程的做法基本合理，公司仅对部分商家提供流量和补贴激励，净佣金率小幅下降至 $9.1\%$ ，酒店GMV保持高个位数增长，其他假设不变。在2026财年，国内酒店营收预计将增长 $4\%$ ，酒店总营收预计将增长 $15\%$ ；总营收和Non-GAAP营业利润预计分别为人民币704亿元（同比增长 $13\%$ ）和人民币193亿元（同比增长 $6\%$ ）。 # 4) 携程的估值空间与未来股价走势？ 过去两年，携程的估值受到以下因素驱动：1）非海外业务收入在实现双位数营收增长的同时利润率持续扩张；以及2）海外Trip.com业务保持高双位数增长。基于Non-GAAP营业利润，其估值曾高达动态市盈率的 $18\sim 20$ 倍。在此次约6个月的整改期间（参照阿里巴巴和美团的案例），预计携程将加强国内业务管理，包括对商务拓展团队、算法团队及商家库存管理等方面进行调整，并可能采取更为审慎稳健的业务增长策略。我们认为，持续的利润率扩张将面临监管压力。携程的估值水平可能回归至历史区间的 $12\sim 15$ 倍。基于我们修订后的2026财年Non-GAAP营业利润人民币186亿元，其股价可能下跌至每股美国ADR $44\sim 55$ 美元（中值为49.5美元）。 携程自2017年以来股价走势（2023年下半年起跑赢KWEB指数） 资料来源：WIND 海通国际 携程自2023年以来的市盈率 资料来源：公司数据、彭博一致预期、海通国际注：市盈率基于非通用会计准则运营利润 阿里巴巴在调查期间股价走势 资料来源：WIND 海通国际 美团在调查期间股价走势 资料来源：WIND 海通国际 # 5) 携程反垄断整改的潜在受益方？ # a) 酒店行业 若携程加强对酒店商家的支持力度，酒店行业有望受益。同时，酒店供应增长正逐步放缓，我们认为华住集团和亚朵集团具备受益潜力。对比2026财年企业价值倍数，华住集团当前股价（49美元/ADR）对应2026财年EBITDA为人民币91亿元，EV/EBITDA为12倍；而亚朵在扣除零售业务估值（2026年市盈率20倍）后，其酒店业务EV/EBITDA约为8倍；由于亚朵酒店业务板块估值低于华住，我们更看好亚朵。 全国酒店数量（15间以上客房，单位：万家）及同比增速 $(\%)$ 资料来源：Innhome、海通国际 全国新开业酒店数量（15间以上客房）及同比增速 $(\%)$ 资料来源：Innhome、海通国际 # b) 美团、飞猪等等竞争对手 随着“二选一”行为被禁止及商家定价权放宽，价格敏感型客户可能从携程生态转向美团、飞猪等平台。长期来看，未来在线旅游行业的竞争预计将转向客户服务水平、极致性价比及大语言模型驱动的用户体验等方面。短期而言，我们对整体在线旅游行业持中性态度，因为各在线旅游平台在监管压力下需以审慎策略推进业务增长。 # 附录APPENDIX # 重要信息披露 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司（HTIRL），Haitong Securities India Private Limited (HSIPL)，Haitong International Japan K.K.（HTJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。 # IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International Japan K.K. ("HTIJKK"), Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL"), and any other members within the Haitong International Securities Group of Companies ("HTISG"), each authorized to engage in securities activities in its respective jurisdiction. # HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification: 我，陈苛葳，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I, Daisy Chen, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 30 calendar days after the research report is published. 我，孙小涵，在此保证（i）本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点，并且（ii）我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关；及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券，我们（包括我们的家属）在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属（我已经告知他们）将不会在本研究报告发布后的30个自然日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I, Xiaohan Sun, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report; and that I (including members of my household) have no financial interest in the security or securities of the subject companies discussed. I and my household, whom I have already notified of this, will not deal in or trade any securities in respect of the issuer that I review within 30 calendar days after the research report is published. # 利益冲突披露 Conflict of Interest Disclosures 海通国际及其某些关联公司可从事投资银行业务和/或对本研究中的特定股票或公司进行做市或持有自营头寸。就本研究报告而言，以下是有关该等关系的披露事项（以下披露不能保证及时无遗漏，如需了解及时全面信息，请发邮件至ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com） HTI and some of its affiliates may engage in investment banking and / or serve as a market maker or hold proprietary trading positions of certain stocks or companies in this research report. As far as this research report is concerned, the following are the disclosure matters related to such relationship (As the following disclosure does not ensure timeliness and completeness, please send an email to ERD-Disclosure@htisec.com if timely and comprehensive information is needed). Compendium disclosure: For disclosures associated with each company mentioned herein, including disclosure of risks, valuation methodologies and target price formation, if any, please refer to the full report on our website (equities.htisec.com). 3690.HK及ZH.US目前或过去12个月内是国泰海通的投资银行业务客户。 3690.HK and ZH.US are/were an investment bank clients of Guotai Haitong currently or within the past 12 months. 国泰海通在过去12个月中获得对3690.HK及ZH.US提供投资银行服务的报酬。 Guotai Haitong received in the past 12 months compensation for investment banking services provided to 3690.HK and ZH.US. 国泰海通担任3690.HK，0700.HK及1024.HK有关证券的做市商或流通量提供者。 Guotai Haitong acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of 3690.HK, 0700.HK and 1024.HK. # 评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）： 海通国际（以下简称“HTI”）采用相对评级系统来为投资者推荐我们覆盖的公司：优于大市、中性或弱于大市。投资者应仔细阅读HTI的评级定义。并且HTI发布分析师观点的完整信息，投资者应仔细阅读全文而非仅看评级。在任何情况下，分析师的评级和研究都不能作为投资建议。投资者的买卖股票的决策应基于各自情况（比如投资者的现有持仓）以及其他因素。 # 分析师股票评级 优于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。 弱于大市，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本-TOPIX,韩国-KOSPI,台湾-TAIEX,印度-Nifty100,美国-SP500;其他所有中国概念股-MSCIChina. # Ratings Definitions (from 1 Jul 2020): Haitong International uses a relative rating system using Outperform, Neutral, or Underperform for recommending the stocks we cover to investors. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Haitong International Research. In addition, since Haitong International Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Haitong International Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations. # AnalystStockRatings Outperform:The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below. Neutral: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Underperform:The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark,as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock's listed region are as follows: Japan - TOPIX, Korea - KOSPI, Taiwan - TAIEX, India - Nifty100, US - SP500; for all other China-concept stocks - MSCI China. <table><tr><td rowspan="2"></td><td colspan="3">截至2025年12月31日海通国际股票研究评级分布</td><td colspan="3">截至2025年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布</td></tr><tr><td>优于大市</td><td>中性(持有)</td><td>弱于大市</td><td>优于大市</td><td>中性(持有)</td><td>弱于大市</td></tr><tr><td>海通国际股票研究覆盖率</td><td>93.9%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>0.1%</td><td>92.3%</td><td>7.5%</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>投资银行客户*</td><td>3.0%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>3.3%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr></table> *在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。 上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。 只有根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们才将中性评级划入持有这一类别。请注意在上表中不包含非评级的股票。 # 此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）： 买入，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下 中性，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数变化不大，基准定义如下。根据FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。 卖出，未来12-18个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在 $10\%$ 以上，基准定义如下 各地股票基准指数：日本-TOPIX,韩国-KOSPI,台湾-TAIEX,印度-Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股-MSCIChina. Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of December 31, 2025 <table><tr><td></td><td>Outperform</td><td>Neutral(hold)</td><td>Underperform</td></tr><tr><td>HTI Equity Research Coverage</td><td>93.9%</td><td>6.0%</td><td>0.1%</td></tr><tr><td>IB clients*</td><td>3.0%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr></table> *Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category. BUY, Neutral, and SELL in the above distribution correspond to our current ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. Please note that stocks with an NR designation are not included in the table above. Haitong International Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of September 30, 2025 <table><tr><td>Outperform</td><td>Neutral(hold)</td><td>Underperform</td></tr><tr><td>92.3%</td><td>7.5%</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>3.3%</td><td>3.9%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr></table> # Previous rating system definitions (until 30 Jun 2020): Buy: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. NEUTRAL: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. For purposes only of FINRA/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Neutral rating falls into a hold rating category. SELL: The stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be below the return of its relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below. Benchmarks for each stock's listed region are as follows: Japan - TOPIX, Korea - KOSPI, Taiwan - TAIEX, India - Nifty100; for all other China-concept stocks - MSCI China. 海通国际非评级研究：海通国际发布计量、筛选或短篇报告，并在报告中根据估值和其他指标对股票进行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍数提出建议价格。这种排名或建议价格并非为了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。 Haitong International Non-Rated Research: Haitong International publishes quantitative, screening or short reports which may rank stocks according to valuation and other metrics or may suggest prices based on possible valuation multiples. Such rankings or suggested prices do not purport to be stock ratings or target prices or fundamental values and are for information only. 海通国际A股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A股进行覆盖及评级。国泰海通证券（601211.CH），海通国际于上海的母公司，也会于中国发布中国A股的研究报告。但是，海通国际使用与国泰海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与国泰海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。 Haitong International Coverage of A-Shares: Haitong International may cover and rate A-Shares that are subject to the Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme with Shanghai and Shenzhen. GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES (601211 CH), the ultimate parent company of HTISG based in Shanghai, covers and publishes research on these same A-Shares for distribution in mainland China. However, the rating system employed by GTHS differs from that used by HTI and as a result there may be a difference in the HTI and GTHS ratings for the same A-share stocks. 海通国际优质100A股（Q100）指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由国泰海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对国泰海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。 Haitong International Quality 100 A-share (Q100) Index: HTI's Q100 Index is a quant product that consists of 100 of the highest-quality A-shares under coverage at GTHS in Shanghai. These stocks are carefully selected through a quality-based screening process in combination with a review of the GTHS A-share team's bottom-up research. 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If there is any difference between this claim and other agreements, this disclaimer shall be applied. # 重要免责声明： 非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）发行，该公司是根据香港证券及期货条例（第571章）持有第4类受规管活动（就证券提供意见）的持牌法团。该研究报告在HTISGL的全资附属公司Haitong International (Japan) K.K.（“HTJKK”）的协助下发行，HTJKK是由日本关东财务局监管为投资顾问。 印度证券的研究报告：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发行，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）上市公司（统称为「印度交易所」）的研究报告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收购并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的一部分。 所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。 本文件所载信息和观点已被编译或源自可靠来源，但HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG”）的成员对其准确性、完整性和正确性不做任何明示或暗示的声明或保证。本文件中所有观点均截至本报告日期，如有更改，恕不另行通知。本文件仅供参考使用。文件中提及的任何公司或其股票的说明并非意图展示完整的内容，本文件并非/不应被解释为对证券买卖的明示或暗示地出价或征价。在某些司法管辖区，本文件中提及的证券可能无法进行买卖。如果投资产品以投资者本国货币以外的币种进行计价，则汇率变化可能会对投资产生不利影响。过去的表现并不一定代表将来的结果。某些特定交易，包括设计金融衍生工具的，有产生重大风险的可能性，因此并不适合所有的投资者。您还应认识到本文件中的建议并非为您量身定制。分析师并未考虑到您自身的财务情况，如您的财务状况和风险偏好。因此您必须自行分析并在适用的情况下咨询自己的法律、税收、会计、金融和其他方面的专业顾问，以期在投资之前评估该项建议是否适合于您。若由于使用本文件所载的材料而产生任何直接或间接的损失，HTISG及其董事、雇员或代理人对此均不承担任何责任。 除对本文内容承担责任的分析师除外，HTISG及我们的关联公司、高级管理人员、董事和雇员，均可不时作为主事人就本文件所述的任何证券或衍生品持有长仓或短仓以及进行买卖。HTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISG的相关客户和公司提供与本文件所述意见相反的口头或书面市场评论意见或交易策略。HTISG可做出与本文件所述建议或意见不一致的投资决策。但HTIRL没有义务来确保本文件的收件人了解到该等交易决定、思路或建议。 请访问海通国际网站www.equities.htisec.com，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。 非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。 # IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER For research reports on non-Indian securities: The research report is issued by Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Haitong International Securities Group Limited ("HTISGL") and a licensed corporation to carry on Type 4 regulated activity (advising on securities) for the purpose of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) of Hong Kong, with the assistance of Haitong International (Japan) K.K. 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Ltd 10 Collyer Quay, #19-01 - #19-05 Ocean Financial Centre, Singapore 049315 电话：(65)67130473 日本投资者的通知事项：本研究报告由海通国际证券有限公司所发布，旨在分发给从事投资管理的金融服务提供商或注册金融机构（根据日本金融机构和交易法（“FIEL”）第61（1）条，第17-11（1）条的执行及相关条款）。 英国及欧盟投资者的通知事项：本报告由从事投资顾问的Haitong International Securities Company Limited所发布，本报告只面向有投资相关经验的专业客户发布。任何投资或与本报告相关的投资行为只面对此类专业客户。没有投资经验或相关投资经验的客户不得依赖本报告。Haitong International Securities Company Limited的分支机构的净长期或短期金融权益可能超过本研究报告中提及的实体已发行股本总额的 $0.5\%$ 。特别提醒有些英文报告有可能此前已经通过中文或其它语言完成发布。 澳大利亚投资者的通知事项：Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Haitong International Securities Company Limited 和 Haitong International Securities (UK) Limited 分别根据澳大利亚证券和投资委员会（以下简称“ASIC”）公司（废除及过度性）文书第 2016/396 号规章在澳大利亚分发本项研究，该等规章免除了根据 2001 年《公司法》在澳大利亚为批发客户提供金融服务时海通国际需持有澳大利亚金融服务许可的要求。ASIC 的规章副本可在以下网站获取：www.legislation.gov.au。海通国际提供的金融服务受外国法律法规规定的管制，该等法律与在澳大利亚所适用的法律存在差异。 印度投资者的通知事项：本报告由从事证券交易、投资银行及证券分析及受Securities and Exchange Board of India（“SEBI”）监管的Haitong Securities India Private Limited（“HTSIPL”）所发布，包括制作及发布涵盖BSE Limited（“BSE”）和National Stock Exchange of India Limited（“NSE”）（统称为「印度交易所」）研究报告。 （条款链接：https://www.htisec.com/sites/all/themes/hitong/files/india/Terms%20and%20Conditions%20for%20Research%20Analyst.pdf） 研究机构名称：Haitong Securities India Private Limited SEBI研究分析师注册号：INH00002590 地址：1203A，Floor 12A，Tower 2A，One World Center 841 Senapati Bapat Marg, Elphinstone Road, Mumbai 400 013, India CIN U74140MH2011FTC224070 电话：+912243156800传真：+912224216327 合规和申诉办公室联系人：Prasanna Chandwaskar；电话：+91 22 43156803；电子邮箱：prasanna.chandwaskar@htisec.com “请注意，SEBI授予的注册和NISM的认证并不保证中介的表现或为投资者提供任何回报保证”。 本项研究仅供收件人使用，未经海通国际的书面同意不得予以复制和再次分发。 版权所有：海通国际证券集团有限公司2019年。保留所有权利。 People's Republic of China (PRC): In the PRC, the research report is directed for the sole use of those who receive the research report in accordance with the applicable PRC laws and regulations. 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