2025-06-03-Jefferies-柔道资本控股有限公司（JDO）_2025年投资者日-重点仍在于净息差大于3_时贷款增长的可持续性_10页_285kb

Report Summary

Company Update: Judo Capital Holdings Limited (JDO) reaffirmed its FY25 guidance, projecting GLAs of $12bn, revising its market position with a base case valuation of AUD2.15, representing a 55% upside from the prior closing price. Despite April's weak growth, GLAs rebounded to AUD12bn as of June 2, requiring a further AUD400m in June. The bank's loan pipeline has grown to AUD1.9bn, supporting its target of AUD12.4-12.6bn in FY25. Diversification efforts and new deposit products are expected to enhance loan growth.

Loan Growth vs. Margin: Management acknowledges challenges in balancing loan growth and net interest margins, aiming for a >3% at-scale NIM. Loan growth is projected at AUD2-3bn per annum, supported by relationship-based lending strategies. The bank expects to expand its product suite and deepen regional penetration.

Valuation: JDO is rated “Buy” with a price target of AUD2.15, implying 55% upside. Analysts project FY25 EPS of AUD0.08 and revenues of AUD423 million. Current valuation ranges between AUD1.23 and AUD2.22. ROE is expected to be 12%+, significantly higher than the sector average.

ESG Focus: Sustainability targets include reducing absolute emissions by 42% by 2030, increasing renewable energy usage, and achieving a gender-diverse workforce (40% women, 40% men, 20% open gender) by FY26.

Key Risks: High exposure to SME lending makes JDO vulnerable to economic downturns, rate volatility, and insolvency risks. Reliance on term deposits may lead to funding instability, while new high-yield savings accounts face regulatory scrutiny.

Financial Highlights: FY24 saw a net interest margin of 2.94%. Projections for FY25-27 show growth in PPOP and cash earnings, with ROE increasing to 9.8% in FY27. Capital ratios highlight strong CET1 at 14.7%.

Charts: Various charts illustrate valuation metrics (PER, PPOP), ROE vs. NTA, and performance relative to the ASX-200 and bank indices. Data supports JDO's potential for sustained growth and profitability.

Conclusion: JDO's strategic focus on sustainable growth, new product diversification, and alignment with ESG goals positions it for a 12%+ ROE, justifying the buy recommendation and price target despite concentration and regulatory risks.