2025年东南亚和东亚区域塑料展望报告_220页_11mb

Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia Summary

Core Content

The OECD Regional Plastics Outlook for Southeast and East Asia provides a comprehensive analysis of plastic pollution dynamics, policy frameworks, and future projections for the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region, which includes the 10 ASEAN countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Viet Nam, Thailand) and the Plus Three countries (China, Japan, Korea). The report highlights the urgent need for coordinated and ambitious policy action to address plastic pollution and supports the development of a sustainable future for the region and the planet.

Main Insights

1. Regional Plastic Pollution Trends

• Plastic use and waste generation are growing rapidly, driven by economic development and population increase.
• Per capita plastics use and intensity vary significantly across APT countries, with lower middle-income (LMIC) ASEAN countries having the lowest levels and higher-income countries (HIC & UMIC) having the highest.
• Packaging is the largest application of plastics, followed by construction and transportation.
• Short-lived plastic products constitute the majority of plastic waste, with packaging, textiles, and consumer products being the main contributors.
• Waste management systems in many APT countries are inadequate, leading to high mismanagement rates and significant environmental leakage.

2. Environmental Impacts

• Plastic leakage to aquatic and terrestrial environments is substantial, especially in lower middle-income countries.
• Plastic leakage is projected to triple by 2050 under current policies, with aquatic environments being the main recipient.
• Rivers are the primary channels for plastic to reach the ocean, especially in ASEAN countries.
• GHG emissions from the plastic lifecycle are expected to double by 2050, contributing to climate change.

3. Policy Landscape

• Most APT countries have developed national action plans to address plastic pollution.
• Segregated collection and recycling are critical to reducing leakage, but enforcement remains weak in many countries.
• Eco-design and reduction measures are underutilized, despite their potential to curb plastic use and waste.
• Circular economy initiatives are emerging, but need to be scaled up to significantly reduce plastic leakage and enhance sustainability.

Key Projections to 2050

Baseline Scenario

• Plastic use is projected to almost double by 2050, driven by economic growth and population trends.
• Plastic waste is expected to more than double, with most ASEAN countries seeing faster growth than the global average.
• Recycling rates will increase, but mismanaged waste will still remain high, especially in ASEAN and China.

High Stringency Scenario

• Plastic use could drop by 28%, plastic waste by 23%, and plastic leakage by more than 95% by 2050 compared to the Baseline scenario.
• Recycling rates are projected to rise significantly across all APT countries.
• Mismanaged waste is nearly eliminated, and leakage to the environment is virtually eliminated.
• GHG emissions from the plastic lifecycle are reduced, and economic impacts are modest but unevenly distributed.

Alternative Scenarios

• Differentiated Stringency scenario is less effective and still allows for significant plastic leakage.
• Lower ambition policies lead to less reduction in plastic use and higher waste management costs.
• Global High Stringency scenario results in similar macroeconomic impacts as the High Stringency scenario, but the APT region can act decisively to end regional plastic leakage.

Policy Recommendations

• A coherent policy mix is essential, combining reduction, eco-design, recycling, and waste management measures.
• Strong multi-level governance and public engagement are required for effective implementation.
• Local financing, coordination, and data systems must be strengthened to support ambitious waste management targets.
• Incentives for recycling and promotion of recycled content should be enhanced.
• Improved waste segregation and better enforcement of existing policies are necessary to close leakage pathways.
• Innovative waste management systems, such as Japan's Johkasou system, should be explored and adapted for other APT countries.

Conclusion

The Regional Plastics Outlook underscores that without significant policy interventions, the APT region will continue to be a major contributor to global plastic pollution. However, with ambitious and coordinated policies, the region has the potential to virtually eliminate plastic leakage by 2050, reduce plastic use and waste, and achieve a cleaner, more sustainable future. This report serves as a policy roadmap to guide the region toward these goals, offering both environmental benefits and economic opportunities.

Key Information

• The report is based on state-of-the-art environment-economy models and quantitative analysis.
• It includes two main scenarios: Baseline (current policies) and High Stringency (ambitious policies).
• Policy instruments modelled include EPR, PAYT, and recycling incentives.
• Compostable plastics are noted as a potential solution but require careful regulation.
• ASEAN waste banks have been successful in incentivizing recyclable collection in rural areas.
• The report highlights the importance of international cooperation and global ambition in ending plastic pollution.

Summary of Projections

Key Challenges

• Inconsistent enforcement of policies hinders effectiveness.
• Limited waste management infrastructure in LMIC countries.
• High leakage rates due to inadequate systems and geographical factors.
• Need for stronger local financing and coordination to support circular economy initiatives.

Conclusion

This report provides a roadmap for ending plastic pollution in the APT region, emphasizing the importance of policy ambition, coordination, and implementation. It offers a data-driven, evidence-based approach to guide countries toward a sustainable and circular plastic economy, contributing to global environmental goals and economic resilience.