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U.S. Energy Information Administration - Short-Term Energy Outlook (May 2019)

Core Content Overview

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for May 2019, providing forecasts for energy prices, production, and consumption across key sectors including oil, natural gas, electricity, coal, and emissions. The report highlights trends, market dynamics, and forecasted changes in energy markets for the years 2019 and 2020.

Global Liquid Fuels

• Brent Crude Oil Prices:

  • Averaged $71 per barrel (b) in April 2019, up $5/b from March 2019 and slightly below April 2018 levels.
  • EIA forecasts an average of $70/b in 2019 and $67/b in 2020, both about $5/b higher than in the previous STEO forecast.
  • The increase in prices is attributed to tighter global oil market balances and heightened supply disruption risks.

• OPEC Production:

  • OPEC crude oil production is expected to decrease by 1.7 million b/d in 2019 and 0.4 million b/d in 2020, primarily due to declines in Venezuela and Iran.
  • These declines are partially offset by production increases from other OPEC members.

• Global Oil Inventories:

  • EIA forecasts a decline of 0.2 million b/d in 2019 and an increase of 0.1 million b/d in 2020.
  • Global demand is expected to outpace supply in 2019, but supply will rise in 2020, with 1.5 million b/d coming from the U.S.

• U.S. Gasoline Prices:

  • EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.92/gal for the 2019 summer driving season, up from $2.85/gal in 2018.
  • The increase is due to higher refining margins despite slightly lower crude oil prices.
  • April 2019 gasoline stocks were 8.1 million barrels lower than the five-year average.

Natural Gas

• Henry Hub Prices:

  • Averaged $2.64/MMBtu in April 2019, down 31 cents/MMBtu from March.
  • EIA forecasts an average of $2.79/MMBtu in 2019 and $2.78/MMBtu in 2020, both lower than 2018 levels.
  • Prices are expected to remain below $2.70/MMBtu in the second and third quarters of 2019 due to increased production.

• Natural Gas Production:

  • EIA forecasts U.S. dry natural gas production to average 90.3 Bcf/d in 2019, up 6.9 Bcf/d from 2018.
  • Production is expected to increase further to 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020.

• Natural Gas Inventories:

  • Ended March 2019 at 1.2 Tcf, 16% lower than the same period in 2018 and 29% lower than the five-year average.
  • EIA forecasts storage injections to exceed the five-year average during the April-October injection season, with inventories expected to reach 3.7 Tcf by October.

Electricity, Coal, Renewables, and Emissions

• Electricity Generation Mix:

  • Natural gas is expected to increase its share of U.S. electricity generation from 35% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and 38% in 2020.
  • Coal's share is forecast to decline from 27% in 2018 to 24% in 2019 and 22% in 2020.
  • Renewables (wind, solar, hydropower) are expected to provide 11% of electricity in 2019 and 13% in 2020.
  • Wind is expected to surpass hydropower as the leading renewable source in 2019.

• Coal Production and Emissions:

  • U.S. coal production in Q1 2019 was 170 million short tons (MMst), down 12% from Q1 2018.
  • EIA forecasts coal production to fall to 700 MMst in 2019 and 638 MMst in 2020.
  • Energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 2.1% in 2019 and 0.8% in 2020, driven by increased use of natural gas and renewables and reduced coal usage.

Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets Review

• Crude Oil Prices and Cracks:

  • Brent crude oil prices increased to $70.75/b on May 2, 2019, and are expected to average $70/b in 2019 and $67/b in 2020.
  • RBOB-Brent crack spread averaged 33 cents/gal in April, the lowest for April since 2010.
  • The crack spread increased by seven cents/gal from March, signaling a return to seasonal norms.

• Crude Oil Production:

  • U.S. crude oil production is forecast to rise to 13.4 million b/d in 2020, up 0.3 million b/d from the previous STEO forecast.
  • The increase is attributed to higher expected crude oil prices influencing production activity.

• Money Manager Positions:

  • Money manager positions for RBOB and ULSD contracts moved in opposite directions since March, with RBOB net long positions increasing and ULSD briefly net short.

Notable Forecast Changes

• Global Oil Inventories:

  • EIA forecasts a decline of 0.2 million b/d in 2019, compared to a build of 0.1 million b/d in the April STEO.
  • Inventories are expected to increase by 0.1 million b/d in 2020.

• Iranian Oil Impact:

  • The U.S. decision not to extend import waivers for Iranian crude oil contributed to tighter market balances and higher prices in mid-2019.
  • EIA expects supply from other OPEC members and Russia to offset the loss of Iranian barrels once the Vienna agreement expires in June.

• U.S. Production Response:

  • Higher crude oil prices are expected to stimulate U.S. drilling activity, leading to increased production.

Summary of Key Market Dynamics

• Prices are influenced by supply disruptions, production responses, and economic factors.
• Geopolitical risks, such as unrest in Venezuela and Libya, are expected to impact oil supply.
• Natural gas prices are affected by weather and production levels, with EIA forecasting continued production growth and inventory increases.
• Emissions are expected to decline due to shifts in the energy mix towards cleaner fuels.
• The report emphasizes the importance of market fundamentals and geopolitical developments in shaping energy forecasts.