20240227-招银国际-Expect_a_productive_2024_for_early_pipeline_assets_7页_655kb

BeiGene (BGNE US) Equity Research Summary

Key Recommendations

• Maintain BUY: Earnings view driven by strong zanubrutinib performance, expected blockbuster potential from pipeline assets, and improving financial metrics. Previous target price was $295.67; revised to $268.20 (67% upside).

Zanubrutinib Performance

• Q4 2023 sales: $413mn (15% QoQ increase, 135% YoY), US market share 76%. Full-year 2023 sales: $1.29bn (129% YoY). Anticipated full-year 2024 sales: $1.9bn (+46% YoY). Global BTK market share grew from 16% to 18% in Q4 2023.

Future Pipeline

• Blockbuster Candidates: Sonrotoclax (BCL-2 inhibitor) and BGB-16673 (BTK CDAC) advancing rapidly; expect regulatory approvals and pivotal studies. BGB-43395 (CDK4) in Ph1 study.
• 2024 Milestones: Initiate at least 10 new molecular entity trials, including pan-KRAS inhibitor and other assets with broad potential.

Financial Summary

• Improved margins: FY23 gross profit margin 83.15%, SG&A ratio 69%, R&D ratio 81%. Turn profitable expected from FY26E; current cash balance US$2.3bn.
• Net loss FY23: US$882mn; projected FY24E loss US$1.09bn, FY25E US$225mn. Free cash outflow due to US facility investment.

Target Price

• Revised target: US$268.20 (previous US$295.67), based on DCF model with WACC 10.1%, terminal growth rate 2.0%. Gave 67% upside from current price US$160.26.