2002年-世界发展银行全球_Structural_Reforms_in_Southeastern_Europe_since_the_Kosovo_Conflict_44页_2mb

Summary of Structural Reforms in Southeastern Europe since the Kosovo Conflict

Core Content

This technical paper by Daniela Gressani and Saumya Mitra examines the progress of structural economic reforms in Southeastern Europe (SEE) in the three years following the Kosovo conflict (1999), focusing on seven countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Romania, and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FR Yugoslavia). The study highlights both achievements and ongoing challenges in the region's reform efforts, emphasizing the need for continued commitment and institutional development.

Main Findings

1. Public Finance Management and Anti-Corruption

• Public Finance Strengthening: There has been substantial progress in public finance management, including budget unification, stricter expenditure controls, and improved fiduciary practices.
• Weak Institutions: Despite these improvements, public institutions remain weak, and good practices are not yet deeply ingrained.
• Anti-Corruption Efforts: Anti-corruption has received higher priority, but the fight is only beginning. Corruption and organized crime are still significant issues.
• Challenges: Institutional development is limited, civil service reforms are in early stages, and civil society engagement is lacking. The region needs to implement international anti-corruption conventions and improve corporate behavior standards.

2. Trade Liberalization and Integration

• EU Influence: The EU's liberalization initiatives have served as a powerful incentive for trade liberalization and regional cooperation.
• Trade Regime: The region has significantly liberalized its trade regime, with increasing openness as measured by the share of trade in domestic output.
• Bilateral Agreements: Completion of bilateral free trade agreements is still needed, while maintaining engagement in multilateral opening.
• Regional Trade: The beginnings of regional trade growth are encouraging, indicating a positive momentum for continued reform.

3. Foreign Investment

• Limited Success: The record on attracting foreign investment is poor, with most investment linked to privatizations, typically in the telecom sector.
• Greenfield Investment: Greenfield investment remains negligible.
• Future Prospects: With diminishing political risk and a sustained record of reforms, the region could become more competitive in attracting foreign investment over the medium term.

4. Private Market Development

• Legislative Improvements: The legislative and regulatory framework for the private sector has improved significantly.
• Competition Policies: However, implementation of competition policies lags behind.
• Private Sector Investment: Private sector investment has also lagged, with the main challenge being the fair and competent implementation of laws and rules.
• Banking Reform: Banking intermediation is being revived through the withdrawal of the state from banking, the entry of foreign banks, and improved supervision and deposit insurance schemes.
• Challenges: Insolvent banks still need to be closed, and privatization of solvent banks is incomplete. Effective implementation of reforms and professionalization of services (judicial, accounting, civil service) are critical.

Key Areas of Structural Reforms

• Public Management and Anti-Corruption: Strengthening governance and reducing corruption.
• Trade Liberalization: Creating a more open and integrated trade environment.
• Foreign Investment Attraction: Improving the investment climate to attract more FDI.
• Private Market Growth: Encouraging the development of a private sector-based economy.

Regional Performance

EBRD Transition Indicators

Reform Progress

• Leaders in Reform: Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania lead in reform efforts, showing strong progress in price and trade liberalization, banking reforms, and corporate governance.
• Lagging Countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina and FR Yugoslavia lag behind, particularly in areas such as governance and enterprise restructuring.
• Uneven Progress: Overall progress across the region is uneven, with some countries needing to catch up and others needing to maintain reform momentum.

Donor Support

• Donor Commitment: Donors have provided significant financial and technical assistance to support the design and implementation of reforms.
• Stability Pact and G-8 Group: The establishment of the Stability Pact and the High Level Steering Group of the G-8 has been crucial in coordinating financial assistance and promoting reform.
• Technical Assistance: Donors have played a proactive role in creating incentives for reform, providing support for institutional development and policy coordination.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while there has been progress in structural reforms in Southeastern Europe since the Kosovo conflict, much remains to be done. The region needs to continue reforming its institutions, enhancing governance, and improving the investment climate to achieve sustainable economic growth and deeper integration with the global economy.