战略与国际研究中心-Cauldron-of-Terrorism-or-Bowl-of-Kasha_-What-Survey-Data-Say-About-the-North-Caucasus_53页_245kb

Summary of "Cauldron of Terrorism or Bowl of Kasha?" – Survey Data on the North Caucasus

Core Content

This document presents the findings of a survey conducted in three North Caucasus regions – Dagestan, Kabardino-Balkaria, and North Ossetia – focusing on the attitudes and socio-economic conditions of young men aged 16 to 39. The study was commissioned to assess whether the North Caucasus is a "cauldron of terrorism" or merely a "bowl of kasha" (a traditional Russian dish, implying similarity to the rest of the country). The survey was conducted between May 2 and June 5, 2006, and includes 1238 respondents.

Main Findings

Attitudes and Concerns

• Young men in the North Caucasus generally resemble their counterparts in other parts of Russia in terms of attitudes and concerns.
• Economic issues are the top concern in all three regions, with unemployment being the most cited problem.
• Corruption and bribery are also highly concerning, ranking second in all three regions.
• Poverty and unemployment are widespread, with unemployment rates of 29% to 35% in the regions, compared to 11% nationally.
• Subjective economic distress is near national averages, suggesting that while economic conditions are poor, the perception of hardship is not significantly different from the rest of Russia.
• Trust in political and military institutions is relatively high, particularly in President Putin and regional governors.
• Anti-American sentiment is relatively rare, and less prevalent than anti-Chechen or anti-Gypsy feelings.
• Ethnic tensions are low, with reported discrimination and animosity towards Russians being infrequent, except in North Ossetia where Ingush people show some level of discontent.

Social Structure and Family Life

• Young men in these regions are more likely to live in larger households with at least one female member (mother, grandmother, sister, etc.), which may act as a deterrent to extremism.
• Family structure is a key variable that may influence involvement in extremist activities, though further research is needed.

Regional Diversity

• The three regions are ethnically diverse, with significant Muslim populations.
• Ethnic Russians are a minority in all three regions, with the exception of North Ossetia where they are a majority.
• Dagestan has the most diverse ethnic composition, with Avars, Dargins, and Kumyks forming a majority group.
• Chechens and Ingush are undersampled due to their small population sizes, making it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about their specific experiences.

Socio-Economic Conditions

Poverty and Unemployment

• Unemployment is a major issue, with 44% to 45% of respondents either working for hire or employed as their main activity.
• Poverty is widespread, with 65% to 75% of households living below the subsistence minimum.
• Wages in the regions are about half of the national average, with Kabardino-Balkaria having the lowest.

Economic Impact

• Despite the economic windfall from oil and gas prices, the benefits have not trickled down to the majority of respondents.
• The response rate was exceptionally high at 94.5%, suggesting strong engagement with the survey.
• A 20% quality control check revealed some sampling errors, but they were minor and unlikely to affect the overall results.

Conclusion

The survey data suggest that while the North Caucasus faces significant socio-economic challenges, these conditions do not necessarily lead to extremism or widespread hostility toward the government or the West. The regions are not fundamentally different from the rest of Russia in terms of values, political attitudes, or levels of concern. However, the lack of economic opportunity and corruption remain pressing issues that could contribute to instability if left unaddressed. The presence of women in households may also serve as a buffer against radicalization.

Key Points

• Unemployment and poverty are major issues in the North Caucasus.
• Economic concerns dominate the list of problems troubling young men.
• Trust in government is relatively high, especially in Putin and regional governors.
• Ethnic tensions are low, with anti-American sentiment being rare.
• Family structure and social support may play a role in mitigating the risk of extremism.
• Survey limitations include the absence of focus groups, the exclusion of political questions, and the underrepresentation of certain ethnic groups.

Survey Methodology

• Sample size: 1238 respondents (initially 1200, with over-fulfillment in North Ossetia).
• Demographics: Balanced age, marital status, and education distributions.
• Household composition: Most respondents live with at least one female, suggesting a family-based social structure.
• Comparison: Survey results are compared to national data from 2004 and 2005 to assess regional distinctiveness.

Final Assessment

The data do not support the view of the North Caucasus as a dangerous cauldron of extremism. Instead, the region appears to be a bowl of kasha, with similar concerns and attitudes to the rest of Russia. While economic hardship is significant, it does not appear to be a direct driver of extremism, and extremist activity may be more a result of external factors or political instability than internal conditions. The survey underscores the need for targeted economic investment and further research into the complex relationship between socio-economic conditions and radicalization.