2025-06-09-花旗集团-全球外汇策略_难以捉摸的美国硬数据转变（目前来看）对风险有利_对波动性不利_12页_482kb

Global FX Strategy Summary

Overview

The Federal Reserve's prolonged hawkish stance despite soft US economic data poses risks for the USD in the coming months. While a potential rate cut in September is priced in, the timing remains uncertain. Absent clear macro catalysts, the market may enter a more range-bound period.

FX volatility has been declining recently, particularly following high-impact data releases. This creates a neutral-to-pro-risk environment for risk assets and currency plays.

Key Views

1. Asymmetric USD Risk: The analysis points to persistent downward risks for USD, driven by lagged effects of stimulus, fiscal issues, or potential Fed policy repricing concerns later this year. Short-term upside catalysts are unclear.

Support and Resistance Levels

• USD (DXY):
  • Support: ~98
  • Resistance: ~100.30-100.60 (55-day MA area)

Strategic Positions

Long EURGBP spot Ref: 0.8428 and long AUDJPY. Look for tactical entries near 95.75 for AUDJPY.
Cross-JPY remains bullish, supportive of USD risk proxy strategies.

Technical & Currency Breakdown Updates

1. EURJPY: Trading near the top of a ~155-165 range. Breakout could trigger a move towards 166.69 or test the 175.43 high.
2. CHFJPY: Resumed an uptrend after breaking a consolidation pattern. Potential resistance at 176.50 targets higher levels up to 180.
3. EURGBP: In a choppy range.
4. AUDNZD: Neutral (sold off earlier, positioning flat).
5. NOKSEK: Neutral.

Forward Outlook

The analysis remains cautious; the US economic outlook presents no clear catalyst for a large move in the very near term. Downside risks associated with hard data, fiscal pressures, or unexpected yield curve steepening remain the main drivers for potential significant USD weakness.