2012年-世界发展银行全球_Skills_Exports_and_the_Wages_of_Seven_Million_Latin_American_Workers_27页_211kb

Summary of "Skills, Exports, and the Wages of Seven Million Latin American Workers"

Core Content

This paper investigates the relationship between the skill premium (the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers) and exports in Latin America, using data from over seven million workers across sixteen countries. The study contributes to the literature on globalization, inequality, and industrial structure, by examining how industry-specific characteristics and national factors influence the returns to schooling and the skill premium.

The paper estimates national and industry-specific returns to schooling and skill premiums, drawing on 88 household surveys. It explores the determinants of these parameters and their correlation with exports, aiming to understand the impact of trade on wages and skill demand.

Main Objectives

1. Document patterns of returns to schooling and skill premiums across Latin American countries.
2. Explore industry-specific variations in these parameters and their relationship with exports.

Key Findings

• Skill premiums and returns to schooling vary significantly across countries and industries.
• Sectoral exports are positively correlated with skill premiums at the industry level, supporting the idea that exports influence wage structures and demand for skilled labor.
• Doubling sectoral exports is associated with a 0.26 percentage point increase in manufacturing returns to education, which is a 3% increase relative to an average of 7.9%.
• A 1.8 percentage point increase in the skill premium is also observed, equivalent to a 3% increase in the average premium (which is around 62%).
• Country-level factors, such as average income per capita and relative abundance of skilled workers, are important in explaining these parameters.
• Industry-level factors, such as export intensity, productivity, and firm performance, also play a significant role in shaping the skill premium.

Methodology

• The study uses Mincer-type regressions to estimate returns to schooling and skill premiums.
• Two specifications are used:
  • One where skills are measured by years of education.
  • Another where skilled workers are defined as those with a high school diploma or more.
• Industry-specific analysis includes 60 sectors across the countries, with a focus on 23 manufacturing sectors.
• Control variables include gender, age, marital status, and regional dummies.
• Robustness checks are conducted using different model specifications and sub-samples.

Policy Implications

• Export promotion policies may have welfare-enhancing effects if they help align private and social returns to education.
• However, the existence of export-driven skill premiums does not necessarily imply that exports improve overall welfare, as they could reflect wage inequality rather than structural benefits.
• The role of industrial structure in development is emphasized, linking it to skill premiums and wage differentials.

Data and Surveys

• Data comes from 88 household surveys across sixteen Latin American countries.
• Surveys cover 2000 to 2007, with data on wages, skills, and industry affiliation.
• The sample size ranges from 60,000 to 1.74 million workers.
• Skilled workers are defined as those with a high school diploma.
• Highly-skilled workers include those with tertiary education, some college, a college degree, or graduate education.

Key Variables and Estimates

• Returns to schooling range from 5.8% in Peru to 11.1% in Chile, with an average of 7.9%.
• Skill premiums range from 44% to 91%, with Brazil having the highest at 91.2% and Colombia at 87.6%.
• Gender differences in skill premiums are also analyzed, showing variations across countries.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that both national and industry characteristics influence returns to schooling and skill premiums, and that exports are positively correlated with skill premiums at the industry level. These findings have important implications for policy design, particularly in export promotion and education strategies in developing economies.