世界银行-重新评估新兴市场贷款的风险_来自GEMs联盟统计数据的见解（英）_6页_690kb

Summary of IFC Research Note: Reassessing Risk in Emerging Market Lending

Introduction

This research note challenges the perception that emerging markets are high-risk investments. New data from the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database (GEMs) shows that risk in emerging market lending is lower than commonly believed, attributed to factors like project-level risk mitigation and diversification benefits.

Data and Methodology

The GEMs database includes approximately 15,000 loans to 10,000 private companies across emerging and developing economies over 1994–2023, with a total value exceeding half a trillion dollars. It is compiled by 26 multilateral development banks (MDBs) and development finance institutions (DFIs), providing insights into default and recovery rates, with over 2,000 default events.

Default Rates

Average default rates in the GEMs portfolio were 3.6%, comparable to non-investment grade firms in advanced economies (e.g., 3.3% for S&P B-rated companies). Emerging markets offer diversification benefits: default rates in GEMs portfolios showed a low correlation with advanced economy defaults (0.46 with S&P B-rated firms), reducing portfolio risk during economic downturns, as seen during the 2008 financial crisis. High-income economies had an average default rate of 2.3%, while low-income countries had 6.3%.

Country Income Levels

Default rates decrease with higher income levels, though the gap between advanced and low-income economies is not as stark as expected. For instance, GEMs default rates were better for emerging markets than sovereign risk ratings suggested, especially in low-income countries, indicating that business performance, not just political or economic instability, dominates risk.

Recovery Rates

Recovery rates after default were high, averaging 72% for GEMs loans, compared to lower rates in other markets (e.g., 70% for Moody’s Global Loans). This suggests that defaults do not irrecoverably lose investments, likely due to MDBs and DFIs' local expertise, advisory support, and strong borrower relationships during recovery.

Conclusion

Investing in emerging markets may be less risky than often perceived, with diversification and higher recovery rates offsetting potential challenges. The findings encourage investors to consider emerging markets for lending due to lower risks relative to conventional wisdom, though caveats include portfolio-specific factors.