战略与国际研究中心-Foreign-Fighter-Fallout_-A-Conversation-with-Lt-Gen-Michael-K-Nagata_16页_310kb

Summary of "Foreign Fighter Fallout" Event

Core Content

The event "Foreign Fighter Fallout," hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on April 5, 2017, featured a discussion with Lieutenant General Michael K. Nagata, Director of the Directorate for Strategic Operational Planning at the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). The focus was on the global threat posed by foreign fighters associated with ISIS and other terrorist groups, particularly in the context of Syria, Iraq, and Libya.

Main Points

• Foreign Fighter Threat Overview:

  • The number of foreign fighters is estimated to be over 40,000 from more than 120 countries over the past five years.
  • Accurate counting is difficult due to the fluid and unpredictable nature of their movements.
  • These fighters are diverse in background and motivation, including ideological, personal, and geopolitical reasons.
  • Many have gained combat experience and are capable of carrying out attacks, recruiting, and inspiring others.

• Challenges in Addressing the Threat:

  • The foreign fighter problem is not monolithic; it involves a wide range of individuals with varied motivations.
  • The international community has moved through two phases in addressing this issue:
    1. Recognition of the Problem: Initially, the focus was on acknowledging the existence of the threat.
    2. Enhancing Information Sharing: The second phase involves improving coordination and intelligence sharing to prevent the movement of foreign fighters.
  • Despite progress, the threat remains significant and persistent, with no clear time horizon for resolution.

• Role of the NCTC:

  • The NCTC is responsible for developing and assessing counterterrorism strategies.
  • It plays a central role in understanding the foreign fighter threat and coordinating the U.S. government's response.

• International Collaboration:

  • The U.N. Security Council Resolution 2178 (2014) marked a turning point by criminalizing the movement of foreign fighters.
  • The U.S. and its allies have made progress in information sharing and coordination, but more work is needed.
  • The coalition remains committed to defeating ISIS, even after its military defeat in Iraq and Syria.

Key Information

• Turkey's Role:

  • Turkey has been a critical player in the fight against foreign fighters, particularly in the context of the Syrian conflict.
  • Turkish military operations in northern Syria have significantly reduced the flow of foreign fighters across the border.
  • However, the country's complex history with the Kurdish population complicates its efforts.
  • Turkey has also seen a large influx of tourists, which presents challenges in monitoring all individuals.

• Future of ISIS and Foreign Fighters:

  • ISIS may be shifting its strategy, as it faces the loss of key cities like Mosul and Raqqa.
  • The group is likely to use foreign fighters more unpredictably and less centrally, which increases the difficulty of tracking and countering their activities.
  • There is concern that ISIS may try to re-establish itself in Europe or other regions by leveraging its remaining fighters.

• Strategic Patience:

  • The threat of foreign fighters is long-term and complex, requiring sustained effort and strategic patience.
  • The U.S. and its allies must continue to work on both military and non-military aspects of counterterrorism, including socioeconomic development and political reform.

Expert Panel and Research

• The Transnational Threats Project (TNT) at CSIS has conducted extensive research on the foreign fighter threat.
• Their work includes a chapter on the role of foreign fighters in previous conflicts, an in-depth examination of Tunisia, and a look ahead at the implications of foreign fighters.
• Additional modules will be published on the CSIS foreign fighters website (foreignfighters.CSIS.org) as the research expands to other regions.

Conclusion

• The threat posed by foreign fighters is not diminishing but evolving.
• The international community must remain vigilant, coordinate effectively, and continue to adapt to the changing tactics and strategies of groups like ISIS.
• Strategic patience and long-term commitment are essential in combating this multifaceted challenge.