20240110-格林期货-黑色期货早报_3页_224kb

报告摘要

BLACK METAL MARKET SUMMARY - FUTURE OUTLOOK

this report analyzes key indicators and views for black metal commodities as of 2024-01-10. market trends show weakness across most sectors due to demand contraction, supply adjustments, and seasonal factors, with varying price levels and support areas.

PRINCIPAL PRICE AND BASIS OVERSHADOWN

Coking Coal & Coke: Coking coal saw lower spot prices and basis adjustments following first-round price cuts, with jvm basis indicating support around 2360. spot prices are weak, and auctions suggest reduced flow despite lower starting points.
Iron Ore: spot qingdao pb powder prices were firm but subject to basis risks; inventory pressures are moderate at current port levels, though a new project may impact prices from 2025 onwards.
**Steel Products:**现货上海市螺纹钢 and热卷 prices included minor decreases, with bases showing some support near 39430 and inventory accumulation outweighing anticipated demand, despite borderline support levels.
Silicon Products: Ferrosilicon and manganese silicide both exhibit weak disk-side fluctuations with downward-trending bases and inventory increases, indicating cautious market sentiment.

MARKET VIEWS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Coking Coal: expectations of further price reductions and cooling market sentiment favor a strategy of entering short positions at higher levels.
Coke: despite cuts, prices broke through weaker support, with a benchmark of 2300 providing floor resistance; choose hold or buy on dip.
Iron Ore: amid reduced production and increased inventory, prices face downward momentum; 900 served as a key support level for strategic holds.
Steel Rebar & Coil: production cutbacks and accumulated inventory suggest sideways to slightly bullish correction; wait on signs near 3900 to stabilize before stronger moves.
Silicon & Manganese Products: lack clear drivers; recommendations lean toward observation pending new procurement updates, with no immediate action advised.

overall, the black metal market indicates a period of consolidation with cautious navigation through diminishing demand and earlier cyclical lows.

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