2025-06-16-Jefferies-尼克·斯卡利（NCK）_无需担忧运费问题_10页_373kb

Summary of Equity Research on Nick Scali Ltd (NCK AU)

Company Description: Nick Scali Ltd is one of Australia's largest homeware and furniture retailers, operating stores primarily in Australia and New Zealand. It sources and retails products under the Nick Scali and Plush brands, with a direct-sourcing model that leverages scale across approximately 500 SKUs. In 2024, it acquired the UK-based Fabb Furniture network, expanding its presence. Founded in 1962 and headquartered in Sydney, it has a strong market position in the consumer goods sector.

Key Highlights:

• Gross Margin Performance: Nick Scali has a solid track record of delivering superior gross margins in its Australian division, achieving 61% in the combined division despite elevated freight costs and the inclusion of the margin-dilutive Plush acquisition. The direct-sourcing model allows for better scale economy with fewer SKUs compared to domestic peers.
• Freight Costs Impact: Freight costs, currently around 16% of COGS, are elevated in 2H25TD due to China-Australia shipping rate increases (up ~9% YoY). However, sensitivity analysis suggests a 15% change in freight rates has a modest effect of ~100bps on gross margin. Management now handles freight in-house, mitigating risks like those from a recent forwarder failure that caused delays and ~$2.8m pre-tax costs in 1H25.
• Market Exposure: Other retailers like Wesfarmers (WES) and Super Retail Group (SUL) face similar freight risks but may see less impact due to scale and long-term contracts, potentially offset by global manufacturing shifts away from China.
• Financial Projections: Analysts from Jefferies project strong growth, with EBITDA forecasted to increase from AUD1.75B in FY24 to AUD2.1B by FY27. NPAT is expected to rise significantly, supported by margin expansion and sales growth.

Risk Factors:

• Elevated freight costs could persist, but development of in-house capabilities reduces volatility.
• Risks include consumer confidence, house prices, and offshore execution challenges, as highlighted in peer analyses.

Valuation and Recommendation:

• Rating: Buy, with a price target of AUD21.00 (11% upside from current AUD18.84), based on a DCF model reflecting through-the-cycle earnings.
• Support: Positive valuation driven by NCK's superior margin performance and growth potential, outperforming ASX peers like Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi.

Analysts note NCK's resilience in freight management and market position, underpinning the buy recommendation with modest valuation multiples.