2026年全球投资回报年鉴_24页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026

Core Content

The UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026 provides a comprehensive analysis of long-term investment returns across various asset classes and markets since 1900. It is based on the DMS Database 2026, a detailed dataset maintained by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton, who are leading academics in finance. The report includes key findings on the performance of stocks, bonds, bills, currencies, and factors, along with insights into inflation, economic risk, diversification, and the impact of geopolitical events.

Key Findings

1. Global Economy and Markets Have Transformed Since 1900

The global economy has undergone significant changes, with the US equity market now dominating global markets, representing around 62% of total world equity market value.
The US market has seen substantial growth due to its performance and the large volume of equity offerings.
Figure 8 illustrates the evolution of GDP and the shift in economic power over time.

2. Industry Mix Has Changed Dramatically

In 1900, many industries that are now significant or have disappeared were dominant, such as railroads, textiles, and coal.
Today's industries, including technology and healthcare, were largely absent in the early 20th century.
Despite being a declining industry, railroads outperformed both the US stock market and its newer competitors over the long term.

3. Stocks Outperformed Bonds, Bills, and Inflation

Stocks significantly outperformed other asset classes since 1900. An initial investment of USD 1 grew to USD 124,854 in nominal terms by end-2025.
Bonds and bills provided lower returns but still outperformed inflation.
The law of risk and return is supported by the consistent outperformance of equities over time.

4. Developed Markets Outperformed Emerging Markets Over the Long Haul

Developed markets (DM) historically outperformed emerging markets (EM) in both equities and bonds.
Annualized returns for DM equities were 8.5%, while EM equities returned 6.9%.
From 1960 to 2025, EM equities outperformed DM, with 10.9% versus 9.6%.
EM bonds outperformed DM bonds from 1950 to 2025, but not from 1970 to 2025.

5. Inflation Has a Significant Impact on Long-Term Returns

Inflation affects the real returns of investments over long periods.
Although the US had the third-lowest inflation rate among DMS markets, USD 1 in 1900 had the same purchasing power as USD 38 in 2025.
Real returns for equities and bonds tend to be higher when economic growth is strong and inflation is low.

6. Gold as a Hedge?

Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, but its effectiveness is limited.
In 28 years of inflation exceeding 3%, gold had negative returns in 13 of them.
Over the long term, gold has shown some effectiveness, particularly after the Bretton Woods era, with real returns of 4.7% (US), 5.8% (UK), and 4.3% (Switzerland).

7. Economic Risk Outweighs Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risk, while significant, has not consistently correlated with future equity returns.
However, extreme geopolitical events, such as World War I, World War II, and the 1973-74 Oil Shock, had a major impact on global equity markets.
Economic risk has historically been more impactful, with three of the four largest peacetime bear markets triggered by economic factors.

8. Diversification Remains Effective Despite Challenges

Diversification helps reduce risk, and being under-diversified incurs significant costs.
US equity market concentration reached its highest level in at least 100 years by 2025.
However, currency hedging and global diversification still provide benefits, with investors in most markets better off investing globally than domestically.
A 60:40 equity-bond blend has never declined more than 50% in real terms since 1900.

9. Currency Hedging Reduces Volatility

Currency risk contributes significantly to overall investment risk, adding around 6 percentage points to total risk.
It adds proportionally more to the risk of bond portfolios, which explains the higher use of hedging in fixed income.
Figure 36 highlights the difference in risk exposure between local and USD-based investors.

10. Investing with Style Delivers Outperformance

Style investing, based on factor premiums, has delivered strong returns.
The momentum factor has shown the strongest and most consistent performance, with a 7.7% annual premium in the US.
However, 22% of country-decades saw negative factor premiums, indicating that style investing is not always reliable.

Conclusion

The Yearbook 2026 underscores the importance of understanding long-term market trends and the enduring principles of risk and return. It highlights that while the current market environment presents unique challenges, many of today's investment dynamics have historical parallels. The report serves as a guide for investors to make informed decisions and build resilient, long-term portfolios.

Key Authors and Contacts

Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton are the lead authors, known for their work on the DMS Database and the book Triumph of the Optimists.
Mark Haefele and Daniel Dowd are UBS representatives who introduced the report.
For more information, contact:
- Heidi Richardson (EMEA Head of Product Management, UBS Global Research): heidi.richardson@ubs.com
- Kiran Ganesh (Global Head of Investment Communications, UBS Global Wealth Management): kiran.ganesh@ubs.com

Accessing the Full Report

The full Yearbook 2026 is available to UBS clients through their representatives.
Non-clients should contact Mike Staunton at London Business School: mstaunton@london.edu.
The DMS Dataset can be accessed by contacting the authors directly or via the link: https://tiny.cc/DMS

Disclaimer

The report is for informational and marketing purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Historical performance is not indicative of future results.
All data and charts are subject to copyright and require permission for use.
Investing carries risk, and the information provided does not guarantee future returns.

展开完整摘要