> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** ```markdown # Singapore Investor Roadshow Feedback — Auto Summary ## Core Content This report summarizes the key discussions and insights from Singapore investors regarding the Chinese auto industry, including electric vehicles (EVs), export dynamics, and broader manufacturing trends. It outlines the main concerns and opportunities across different segments and companies. ## Main Views ### 1. China Auto Recovery - **Recovery is slower than expected**: Domestic demand, particularly in high-end segments, remains weak. - **NEV penetration is driven by ICE decline**: The rise in new energy vehicle (NEV) adoption is more a result of declining internal combustion engine (ICE) sales than strong EV demand. - **Earnings outlook is cautious**: 1Q earnings are expected to be weak, and 2Q may not show significant improvement. - **Potential recovery in 3Q**: If inventory levels normalize and policy support increases, a more meaningful recovery could be seen in the third quarter. ### 2. Exports - **Focus on profit generation overseas**: Investors are increasingly interested in companies that produce in China but generate profits abroad. - **Geely is a top export beneficiary**: Strong 1Q export performance, but concerns remain about market crowding, governance, and placement risks. - **BYD is seen as a high-quality global story**: However, there is debate over whether its profit upside is capped at around Rmb40bn. - **Chery is an undersocialized name**: Low market understanding, but potential for valuation re-rating through overseas EV/HEV penetration. ### 3. New Models and OEM Debates Investors are raising several questions about the sustainability and success of new models and OEMs: - Is Geely's export momentum sustainable after strong 1Q data? - Is BYD's overseas profit real earnings or reinvestment into localization? - Can Chery transition from ICE to NEV/HEV in overseas markets? - Will Leapmotor's D19/D99 support a second growth curve after the C-series? - Is NIO ES9 a 7-8k/month model, or is 5k/month a successful outcome? - Can Li Auto's L-series refresh counter rising competition from AITO and other EREV/BEV SUVs? - Is XPeng still primarily a Mona story, limiting its valuation upside? - Can Xiaomi Auto sustain group valuation despite ongoing challenges in capacity, licenses, and memory costs? ### 4. EV Supply Chain - **Investors compare OEMs with supply chain players**: They are evaluating the risk-reward profile of battery, storage, and lithium suppliers versus auto OEMs. - **CATL is viewed as more certain**: It has stronger pricing power and cost pass-through capabilities compared to most OEMs. - **Upstream lithium and grid/storage are more attractive**: These segments are seen as having better risk-reward than downstream auto manufacturing. - **Auto OEMs are treated as trading names**: They are not viewed as long-term clean compounders due to their exposure to market volatility. ### 5. Tesla, ADAS, and Robotics - **Focus has shifted from vehicles to FSD and Robotaxi**: Investors are now more interested in Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) and robotaxi initiatives. - **Robotaxi rollout is slower than anticipated**: This has raised concerns about near-term earnings growth. - **Optimus remains a 2027 story**: It is not expected to drive earnings in the short term. - **ADAS/lidar is less of a focus now**: With limited near-term catalysts, this topic is becoming less prominent. - **Robotics is a long-term theme**: However, there is no clear evidence of commercialization this year. ## Key Takeaways - **Selective approach is recommended**: Given the weak domestic demand and uncertain earnings, the report suggests being selective in investing in the Chinese auto sector. - **Overseas profit exposure and new-model catalysts are key**: Companies with strong international sales or upcoming new models are viewed more favorably. - **Supply chain players may outperform OEMs**: Upstream segments like batteries and lithium are considered more attractive due to their stronger fundamentals and less exposure to market fluctuations. ## Risks - **Domestic demand weakness may persist**: This could delay the recovery of the Chinese auto market. - **Export normalization could be faster than expected**: This may affect the profitability of export-focused companies. - **New model execution risk**: Uncertainty around the successful launch and market acceptance of new models remains a concern. ## Analyst - **Analyst**: 王沈昱 (Oscar) - **执业证书编号**: BNX841 ## Disclaimer This report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. It is not a substitute for professional financial, legal, or tax advice. The content is based on information deemed reliable at the time of publication, and no guarantees are made regarding its accuracy or completeness. Investors are advised to refer to the full report on the official website (www.equities.htisec.com) for a comprehensive understanding. ```