> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # DualityBio (9606 HK) Summary ## Core Content and Strategy DualityBio is focusing on its **ADC + IO2.0** strategy in collaboration with BioNTech, aiming to combine its antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) assets with pumitamig, a bispecific antibody targeting PD-L1×VEGF. The company's core value driver is **Elfe-D**, a B7-H3 ADC, which has shown promising results in **metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC)**. The upcoming data readouts at **WCLC 2026** and **ESMO 2026** are expected to be significant catalysts for the company's valuation and market sentiment. ## Key Assets and Clinical Progress - **Elfe-D (DB-1311/BNT324)**: - Demonstrates **compelling durability** in heavily pretreated patients (median rPFS 11.3 months; median OS 22.5 months). - Shows **encouraging activity** even in **post-Lu-177 settings**. - Has a **highly tolerable safety profile** (only 20% Gr≥3 TRAEs). - Advanced into a **global Phase 3 study** versus **docetaxel** in **taxane-naïve mCRPC**, which is a key de-risking step. - Expected to have **blockbuster potential** in the mCRPC market, already validated by **Pluvicto's commercial success**. - **DB-1303/BNT323 (T-pam; HER2 ADC)** and **DB-1305/BNT325 (TROP2 ADC)**: - Being evaluated in **combination with pumitamig** across four global studies. - **T-pam** is expected to report **global Phase 3 data** in **HR+/HER2-low breast cancer** in **4Q26**. ## Upcoming Data Readouts - **WCLC 2026**: - Expected **LBA presentation** for **Elfe-D + pumitamig** in **lung cancer**. - Includes **safety data** in **NSCLC** and **SCLC**, along with **initial efficacy observations** in **SCLC**. - **NSCLC efficacy** is still immature due to ongoing **expansion enrollment**. - **ESMO 2026**: - Additional **Phase 2 combination data** for **Elfe-D** in **advanced solid tumors** (OC, CC, HCC, HNSCC). - Initial **T-pam + pumitamig** data in **HR+/HER2-low/ultra-low breast cancer**. ## Financial Overview - **Revenue**: - FY24A: RMB1,941 million - FY25A: RMB1,852 million - FY26E: RMB1,046 million - FY27E: RMB1,202 million - FY28E: RMB1,728 million - **YoY growth** in 1H26: -43.5% - **Net Profit**: - FY24A: RMB-1,050 million - FY25A: RMB-2,595 million - FY26E: RMB-1,086 million - FY27E: RMB-1,242 million - FY28E: RMB-1,191 million - **R&D Expenses**: - Rose **74% YoY** to RMB607 million in 1H26. - Expected to increase further in subsequent years. - **Cash Balances**: - Remained **solid at RMB3.0bn** as of 1H26. - **A-share financing** is on track. - **Collaboration with Genentech**: - Announced **US\$45mn upfront** and **potential milestone payments of over US\$1bn**, validating the **DUPAC platform** value. ## Valuation and Target Price - **DCF Valuation**: - Equity value: RMB22,320 million (HK\$25,953 million). - **Target Price (TP)** revised to **HK\$284.50** (from previous **HK\$383.47**). - **Up/Downside**: 58.1%. - **Current Price**: HK\$180.00. - **Key Assumptions**: - **Terminal growth rate**: 3.5% - **WACC**: 9.87% - **Cost of equity**: 13.0% - **Cost of debt**: 3.0% ## Share Performance - **1-month**: -1.0% - **3-months**: -12.0% - **6-months**: -42.9% - **Relative performance**: -11.8% over 3 months ## Shareholding Structure - **LAV Fund**: 8.7% - **Shanghai Yingjia**: 7.0% - Source: Bloomberg ## Market Capitalization and Liquidity - **Market Cap (HK$)**: HK\$16,420.4 million - **Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$)**: HK\$233.6 million - **52w High/Low (HK$)**: 510.00 / 162.80 - **Total Issued Shares (mn)**: 91.2 ## Risks - **Rising competition** in B7-H3 ADCs. - **Uncertainty** regarding the **clinical data** of ADC + IO2.0 combinations. ## Analyst Ratings - **BUY**: Stock with potential return of over **15%** over the next 12 months. - **HOLD**: Stock with potential return of **+15% to -10%** over the next 12 months. - **SELL**: Stock with potential loss of over **10%** over the next 12 months. ## CMBIGM Ratings - **BUY**: Recommended for those seeking a **potential return of over 15%** over the next 12 months. ## Analyst Certification - The analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report **accurately reflect personal views**. - No part of the analyst’s compensation is directly or indirectly related to the **specific views** in the report. ## Important Disclosures - The report is **not an offer or solicitation** to buy or sell securities. - CMBIGM is **not a registered broker-dealer** in the U.S. - The report is **intended solely for major US institutional investors**. - The information is **based on public data** and **not guaranteed** for accuracy or completeness. - Investors are advised to **consult professional financial advisors** for independent evaluation. ## Conclusion DualityBio is positioned as a promising player in the ADC and IO2.0 space, with a strong focus on **mCRPC** and **lung cancer**. The upcoming data from WCLC and ESMO could significantly impact the company's **valuation and market perception**. Despite **financial losses** in recent years, the company has **solid cash reserves** and a **strategic collaboration** with Genentech that may drive future growth. The **BUY** rating is maintained, reflecting the potential for **significant returns** over the next year.